While looking at some of my old hand history reports, I found this one I played a long time ago, back when I was inexperienced playing live and had no clue how to play deep. I ended up butchering it completely (the details of which I'll reveal later) and have long since figured out what I believe to be the optimal approach and plan for the hand, but I thought it'd be interesting to put this one out there so that people can go through the whole process of dissecting this hand.

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Hero: $1500 (BB)
Villain: $1250 (MP)

Quick history/descrip: Villain is loose-passive in that he peels off a lot of flop bets with things like bare bottom pair, etc., trying to hit, yet he does play value hands aggressively, to the point of overvaluing them. Somewhat tilted towards me because I stacked him when I c/r-called KcJc on a 10c7c9 flop when he insta-shoved my $120 c/r for $500 on top with QQ and I got there. He started steaming saying "Nice catch, kid" and "You got rewarded for that one" despite it obviously being pretty standard (and me actually being a favorite).

Anyway, he raised to $25 from MP, CO called and SB called, I look at 10s9s in the BB and call. I thought that was pretty much my only option, he was limping a lot but not raising very light so a 3bet squeeze would be pretty bad, and I'm obviously not folding especially since I'm not first to act.

Pot: ($100)

Hero: 10s9s

Flop: QsJs10c

So whee, yet again I flop the world. SB checks, and I decide to lead out since my hand has so much ridiculous equity plus SB and CO had just about the right stack-size that I could 3bet all-in if they raised (they'd both previously raise-folded flops for what I assume was 'information' so yeah). I bet $70.

Villain immediately announces "Make it $200" and puts it in.

With more than 200bb effective, what is your plan on the flop, turn, and river? What hands do you put him on beyond the obvious sets and AK that you believe he would play this way? He's clearly shown he might overplay AA, KK, or even AQ this way, but do you think it's a big enough part of his range to make it worth just getting it on the flop? Have at it gents.

Anything but call is spew.
And I am not happy bet/3betting pretty much any stack sizes here.

Before I proceed, what is our read on the villain's opening range? Does he consider position? Is it wider than the standard TAG? I am assuming this is his raising range:

99+,AKs,KJs+,QJs,AKo

Most of this range has a pair + straight draw, two pair, sets, or made straights. Flush draws are not a large part of his range, and spades are likely outs for us and action-killers should we hit.

I would be willing to get it in based upon the even pot equity:

Board: Qs Js Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.106% 46.85% 01.26% 21797 586.50 { Ts9s }
Hand 1: 51.894% 50.63% 01.26% 23560 586.50 { 99+, AKs, KJs+, QJs, AKo }


And if "they'd both previously raise-folded flops for what I assume was 'information' so yeah" is true, they are very unlikely to play for stacks this deep with a draw when you are showing immense strength on the flop.

We are happy to win the pot now, and if we don't, we are very likely to hit some part of the world later on to ensure a profit.

Calling is bad because any cards that help us on the turn are cards that put a straight on the board (questioning if villain has an A), give us two pair (questioning if the villain has the straight), or give us trips (questioning if the villain boated). In other words, if our equity does improve, barring a raggy spade, it is a scare card for us, and I cannot see any better avenue than playing for stacks on this flop, lest we face more painful decisions on later streets.

AK has us as a 60/40 underdog if called (we require a spade), and we are likely called by this and sets.

i find a shove pretty sexy here. Seriously.

This is pretty much the conclusion line of my post.

Villian having 23 combos that are beating us handily 55%-45% minimum + being 200bb deep - is pretty devastating to our plan of bet/3betting.

you realize that we have over 50% equity against his range here and suggest a call?

btw, I c/r OTF in this spot and shove if my c/r is raised

3bet/call

Orly 50% against what range?

OP - Description of villian is loose passive - but opens a tight range.

This board absolutely smashes his range.
One of the things that makes pair + FD ok to check ship is when there is dead money or FE in play. The difference here to other spots - is that there is no dead money because the board smashes his range and so every dollar that goes in by villian is 'live' money.

Heros hope is all AQ that he has in his opening range are stacking off 100% of the time - as well as everytime he has AA,KK.

That gets us to 46% equity vs TT+,AQs+,AQo+

And remember that is the best case scenario - where his frequency is 100% on his 1 pair range. But it is Herioc assumption to believe that villian is only ever raise or folding his entire range - surely a passive player will sometimes call AQ?

Welp, I guess it's spoiler time.

First off, I have to agree with DiggertheDog that this is a call spot and it's not even close (although I will over-shove a small percentage of the time against the right villain, and like ANL said it feels pretty badass when you do). I've since realized that this particular draw on this board is a lot like having, say, 97 on a K J T board. Yes, you have a double gutter, but a lot of hands that beat you will have blockers/redraws/etc. to you on that board so you can't play it aggressively and you'll never make a nut hand. We're never ahead either (although we're flipping a huge percentage of the time), but I don't think live players are good enough to fold sets here to make a flop 3bet profitable, plus this guy in question was bad enough he'd probably snap with kings if I shoved so fold equity wouldn't be the answer.

Anyway, in the moment I thought that the fact that he quickly near min-raised was a tell that he was trying to appear strong (I'd had a guy raise the exact same way when he had TT on a J 9 3 board against me). So I decided to just open shove, and turns out he actually WAS strong, since he had AsKs for the mortal nuts and immortal re-draw to the nuts.

He slammed his hand on the felt as he called and I said, "That's good, I'm drawing dead". But it turned out his immortal re-draw wasn't so immortal when I managed to bink an 8s on the river. When my one-outer hit I was so shocked I started laughing in amazement and said "Sorry man, but I got there" to interrupt his celebration dance. When he saw me flip up my straight flush he buried his face in his hands and looked utterly despondent. It might be one of the most depressing things I've seen at a poker table. The dealer asked him if he was going to rebuy, but he just sat there with his face in his hands until the floor told him if he wasn't going to rebuy he had to vacate his seat. Apparently nobody ever saw him at the casino ever again after that. Too bad, he was pretty good action.

Dear sweet baby Jesus. You stole his soul.

YOU ARE THE DEBBIL!!!

*grunch*

If we know villain is apt to overvalue made hands and aggressively play monsters, we're not getting him to fold. Obviously the problem comes with flatting the flop raise and having to c/f a turn bomb. So IMO, our options are fold (lol) or 3b/call jam. Man, I dunno. Such a tough spot. I lean towards 3b/c. This way, since we know he's steaming at us, he commits worse hands and we've got plenty equity versus his bigger hands.

Dear sweet mother of pearl, nice one-outer!

Interesting hand. The kind I suppose costs people lots of money either way.

I agree that shoving is bad. I mean your fd is dominated a lot there leaving you drawing to your 2 sf outs. When he raises the flop like that you have to be giving him a big draw or a big made hand. His raise there stinks of AK with at least the ace of spades and as mentioned I can't see anything he's raising with being able to fold to a shove.

I think this is a very difficult draw to play due to what I said above. You see your 4 cards to a sf and think bingo but most of the time you just end up paying off someone else's hand. I hate this kind of spot really and hate just calling here as there's so many cards that come which will make you sweat a turn bet.

T9 in general is a hand that can get you into more bother than anything else when you find you're hitting idiot straights and being dominated by better draws.

Good idea though to hit that river

wait, so you DID shove over top right?

the more i look at this hand, the stacks are perfect for that shove. I disagree that even some of the fishier players may not fold KK on this board for 1300 after they have put maybe 2225 only in the pot.

i thought the stacksizes were perfect for this and still do. KQ, AA KK AQ
i think we get folds a ton from most players here. Shove with 1500 stack is just a power play that virtually nobody is going to call without 2pair+.

GG

Meh, it just feels like we're risking far too much money for not enough fold equity plus there's a lot of possible AK combos that we'll shove into drawing at 30% (or occasionally 4% lol). I'll do it against a villain that a.) will raise a wider range than most on the flop and b.) fold everything but AK to a flop ship, but villain that fulfill both criteria are a pretty specific breed.

Great story, I agree w/DiggerTheDog's line here.

I think the best way to realize why this is a clear call spot the majority of the time is to compare KsTs in this spot relative to Ts9s. A lot of people might be tempted to think they're more or less the same thing but the former is massively stronger while the latter has significantly less equity despite also being a pair + OESFD, a draw which on paper seems like it deserves an arrrrr-innnnn but in a real life situation may not warrant such a move.