Quote:
Originally Posted by matzah_ball
????
So there's a couple reasons why I think flop is a check.
First reason is that BB has a strong range when he flats and we're not doing good against the hands he's calling down with. His range looks something like TT-QQ, AQ+, 88-99 sometimes and KK-AA sometimes. Against the 88-TT portion of his range he might call a bet but most likely isn't stacking off. So we can get our 1 street of value against those hands later by either betting or calling good turns and our EV against that portion of his range will be about the same as betting flop. Against the QQ-AA portion we get to pot control and see a turn and river and win his stack the times we hit our 2 outer.
Second reason is that the original raiser has a weak range for just calling the 3bet and closing the action and, while we could definitely bet and get value from the 88-TT part of his range, there is a lot of merit to checking back and letting a young LAG stab with his air if BB checks turn. And since air will make up a lot more of his range than 88-TT I think checking gets max value from him.
With both of these reasons combined I feel like checking flop is best.