2/5: Nuts on turn, bad river card - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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2/5: Nuts on turn, bad river card

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02-10-2016 , 02:36 AM

6betfold

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,403

2/5, $600 eff, 6 handed

Hero raises $15 with AJcc UTG
BTN (decent player) calls

Flop ($40): KQ9ccd
Hero bets $40, V calls

Turn ($120): Td
Hero bets $80, V calls

River (280): 5d
Hero ?

I was planning to overshove river but this card?

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02-10-2016 , 02:43 AM

wj94

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 8,006

Bet $150 on the turn and pray for a shove. He can still call with worse too. As played bet stupidly small to induce a raise or check and hope he bluffs. He probably doesn't have a straight when he just calls turn. If he has a flush then pay it off I guess.

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02-10-2016 , 05:28 AM

Kyle Saunders

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 409

His range on the river is prob 99, KQ, KJs-K9s, QTs-Q9s, AdQd, AdJd

I expect most hands with a J to raise the turn so really his hand is a bluff catcher and unless you have a really crazy image I think if you shove 1.66 pot you get a lot of folds.

If you wanted to get stacks in then you need to bet turn bigger as WJ said

I actually don't think think the river is that bad of a card to honest. Doesn't change much and higher unlikely he has a flush.

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02-10-2016 , 05:41 AM

Jamitontheriver

adept

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,137

$150 on river and calling a shove although not thrilled about it.

Any JdXd should be playing for stacks on the turn to free roll you. Only diamond combos are AKdd, AQdd, KQdd. AK is often going to three bet pre, KQ will often raise on the flop. So these are only a tiny portion of his range.

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02-10-2016 , 06:11 AM

moxiepilot

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 361

Since he's calling your flop bet with only 1 diamond in it I would think the possibilities of a runner runner flush draw are slim, especially with your pot sized flop bet. I'd put the Villain more on a range of 2 pair, 10-J for the smaller flopped straight, or a set, similar to Kyle's assessment.

I'd bet for value, ~$200, if he shoves it would suck to lose to 10

but I would still call his shove.

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02-10-2016 , 06:37 AM

Buster65

The Situation

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 2,371

Yeah, this river is an ok card. I wouldn't let it change my plans much.

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