Join Date: May 2023
Posts: 2,501
PRE - opening KTs from UTG is okay, but I think we should over-fold when we get 3B from a competent V when we're OOP.
FLOP - just check-call. Don't check-raise. Reasoning below.*
TURN - I've seen people go for a double check-raise, but it's almost always a fishy play. Especially when you min-click it. We've made the 2nd nuts (we lose to 54dd) after x/r'ing flop. I'd just bet 2/3 pot. This turn action is way too fancy.
RIVER - I'd either check to induce, or I'd jam, and hope V calls with AX or some non-believing PP. As played, nothing to do but call. We're only losing to boats or better, and with the way we played this hand, V might think we're way out of line, because our line doesn't make a lot of sense.
*On this ace high two tone flop, where the ace is the same suit as the flush draw, we can have some strong top pair+ hands (some 2P or sets maybe), or the flush draw, but not both.
It would be different if we had A5hh and the flop came AsXhXh. That's a spot where we know we can never be in terrible shape if we x/r and get called, or even raised. And V can't be sure if we're x/r'ing for value or as a semi-bluff.
But here, a competent V will be able to narrow our flop x/r range to some sort of value or a semi-bluff. Assuming we're folding 22 and 4B'ing AA pre, We're not going to have many sets or 2P here. Our thickest value would be 88, A2s, or A8s, assuming we're opening UTG and calling his 3B with A2 and A8. None of those hands are going to like seeing another flush card on the turn. So we're weighted towards weaker value, like just top pair, and semi-bluffs.
If V has an ace in his hand, it narrows our range further. V can fold out a lot of his worse 1P hands, or his worse draws, and just continue with the parts of his range that do well against our x/r range. His continue range is going to be hands that can improve to beat our flushes, sets, and 2P.
When we check-raise flop, and check-raise again on turn, V knows we were either bluffing flop, or we're turning some non-flush hand into a bluff now. But our x/r sizing is weak, so it looks kinda fishy. Even if he thinks we turned the flush, he can't fold any sets or 2P when he's getting almost 9 to 1 odds to call and boat up on the river. He might also call with some strong AX holding, simply because we might give up and check river after he calls.
If V has a straight flush or boat here, he's just going to get my money. The way this was played, if I was V, I might raise river with trip aces, because I don't think our line looks all that strong, when we x/r twice and bet the same exact amount on all three streets.
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