On the button with 77. UTG is LAG and raises to 30. Folds to Cutoff who calls 30. We call. SB and BB fold.

Flop = Ks 7h 2c

UTG bets 60. Cutoff calls.

Is there ever a time on this flop where we raise? No straight draw. No flush draw. Loose player is taking the betting lead (may well continue no matter what comes on the turn).

Any reason to raise on this flop with middle set?

(All 3 players in the hand are sitting with about $2k stacks)

In position with such a dry flop, there's pretty much no turn card we don't want to see. It's also much harder for anyone to have K7s for top two. K2 is still there, but top two is basically impossible. Betting here folds out most everything except 22, KK, AA, AK, KQ.

In position here, I'd just call for now since we know the turn won't be checked through being on btn. If I were OOP, or had 22, I would probably raise much more frequently.

If you're in a game where people are paying attention though, you either have to raise sometimes here, or never bluff flop. So, there is that to consider sometimes. But, I'd still only raise here probably 20% of the time if no specific info on V's.

That's the reason. We are *very* deep here. If we have any kind of an image that isn't nit, we likely get more if we raise, even if we lose one of the customers. We are hugely deep, and pots grow exponentially. So lets make that base bigger now.

Here's a simplified example.

AP, when we call pot becomes $270. If our LAG is following the old "2/3 pot, 1/2, 1/2" formula, he will bet $135 on the turn. All call. Pot is $675. He bets $340 on the river, You raise, but they fold, so the final pot is $1695. Mind you, if we were only 100BB deep, this line would be fine, as it gets stacks in. But this deep we've left over $1400 in each of our V's stacks by slow playing.

So instead we raise flop, even though the board is dry and we're afraid of losing our customers. We make a small half-pot raise of $135. LAG folds and CO calls. Pot is $540. CO checks, we bet $390 and CO calls. Pot is $1320 and we bet $600 and get a crying call. Pot is $2520, even though we lost a customer and didn't manage to get whole stacks in.

Sure, these are just examples, and how likely they are depends on Vs and their image of us, what cards come later, etc. I definitely wouldn't auto-raise in this scenario. But the idea that we should always slow play a monster on a dry board because we might just get folds is dead wrong. Sure, sometimes they both fold. But sometimes the LAG jams on us with his surprise 72 as well. The point is, that we make so much more money when they call than when we slow-play, that it can make up for the lost EV from the the chance that they fold.

We definitely shouldn't be flatting the turn unless there is a big bet with a call, and the board isn't too bad. Slow playing one street is likely noticeably higher EV on K72r with middle set, than raising on flop. Not every dry flop is equal. This is literally the driest of the dry.

You can always make the example of just flatting turn being worse than raising flop and betting turn. But we are almost never just calling the turn bet.

Depends on V's. Call flop, raise turn is the classic line for a set on a dry board. Of course, classics are such for a reason, but I generally find that turn raises get *way* more folds than flop raises, even on dry boards. This is especially common from LAGS who often interpret an IP raise on a dry flop to be playing back at them.

Turn:

We call $60 flop bet.

Turn is 4h (Ks 7h 2c 4h). UTG checks. Cutoff checks.

We bet $205 (into pot of $277 - additional thoughts on this bet sizing are welcome)

UTG quickly calls.

Cutoff check-raises to $800.

We stop and think for a bit. Cutoff has played straight forward poker and flatting a raise preflop with KK does not seem like his type of play. UTG has been aggressive so if he happened to wake up with KK we would’ve known about it with a lead out or check raise of our bet on the turn.

Hero: ?

Too early for results, OP. Really, too early to even be discussing turn, but that's OK.

Let discussion go on for at least a day before posting results. I won't comment on turn, since I saw results.

against a LAG and with my nitty image i'm always just calling this flop.

Hero - after replying hand and thinking about opponents images = re-raise All In for approx $1800 total

UTG tanks for a while. We get nervous when we see Cutoff eagerly arranging his chips to push them into the middle after UTG decision (could he have slow played KK?!?!)

UTG calls. Cutoff snap calls. Pot is now approx $5600.

River - 5c (a pretty safe card in our mind if someone called with a draw. Only thing we are really worried about is someone tabling KK)

Board reads Ks 7h 2c 4h 5c

Cutoff yells - “I HAVE THE NUTS!”

Tables 8h6h for a riveted gut shot straight (turn gave his straight flush draw and he decided to try and make a move with it)

Everyone was pretty confused looking at board and thinking back to how we got to that point (i.e. - why was 86 in the pot after the flop).

I know we are not supposed to be results based, but this one hurt. Had been patiently waiting all night/morning for the right spot to play a nice sized pot, especially vs UTG who had been spewey all game.

Any thoughts on line taken? Changes to be made based on who was in the hand? Bet sizing? Etc.

Did you find out what UTG had?

Try not to be results oriented, you managed to get a guy to put in his whole stack on the turn with a gutshot and flushdraw, even though we lost a big one we should be fist pumping when opponents take lines like this.

When it comes to raising flop, it's both villain and hero dependant; if you have a bluffy image then raising more often is probably better, if villains are sticky then I'm more likely to raise, if they're nitty and likely to fold to aggression then calling to evaluate turn action is fine too.

UTG later let me know that he turned two pair. Didn’t indicate which two. Based on his loose play could’ve been any combo to go with the 4. Said he was hoping I was pushing back with AA or AK and thought because he had a 4 in hand it didn’t hit Cutoff and maybe he was making a move with the turn check-raise (pretty good read).

Flop is fine. Turn is fine, call is also fine in position I think.

River is pretty dumb. CO obviously should be folding pre to a 5x raise. He should be folding on flop, but here him floating actually... still pretty bad but I can see the logic as UTG can bet this flop a lot with nothing and villain picks up a flush draw or open ender on a little over 1/3 of the deck on the turn, a bluff catcher on 8 or 6, and can bluff on certain runouts, especially if you fold flop and it gets checked to him on turn or river.

After you jam and UTG calls it looks like he is priced in, so his call there actually seems fine.