2/5 NLHE, B&M Casino, 9 Handed

Hero is in BB with AK and has about $500
Villain is MP1 and covers

Preflop:
2 Folds, MP1 Calls $5, 3 Folds, BTN Calls $5, SB Folds, Hero Raises to $35, MP1 Calls $35, 1 Fold

Flop: ($77)
J74
Hero Bets $45, MP2 Calls $45

Turn: ($167)
A
Hero Checks, MP2 Bets $75, Hero Calls $75

River: ($317)
T
Hero Checks, MP2 Bets $75, Hero Calls $75

Villain has been at table about 30 minutes. Not much known about him but he has played a few hands but hasn't shown down too much. I decided to check call the turn and river since this hand sometimes hits villains range and gives him Aces Up some of the time and keeps bluffs and weaker pairs in his range. Was my thinking proper? Should I ever be raising the turn or river? Opinions or comments?

Bet turn, this rivercard hurts us however I would bet half pot or 60-65% on river and rep a 3 barrel whiffed FD.

I would bet the turn as well.

I doubt a player who limp/calls mid position is floating with pure air very often on the flop so his range is mostly draws and pairs.

With marginal pairs I think he'll check back most of the time becuase that card is the ultimate scarecard for him and it smacks your range. We have no read but the average live player who open limps isn't aggro enough to turn 7x or pocket 8's or something like that into a bluff, he'll just check it back and hope to improve or check it down.

With the stronger draws he might bluff at you but there's no guarantee for that, and he's never folding those either, so against that part of his range you're better off betting than checking and hoping you'll induce.

If you want to induce at any point I think the river is a much better street for that although betting again might be better. Not quite sure on that.

Another problem with the turn check is that you allow him to control the bet sizing if he made a light peel with Ax. Given his bet sizing on the river I'd guess that's his most likely holding, but you never know given how horrible the avg player is at betsizing. He could very well have a flopped set and be scared that you fold for a bigger bet.

Oh, and if I get raised on the turn I'm folding unless I have some strong reads on the player. He has to be either aggro/tricky enough to turn a floated draw/pair/air into a raise-bluff on a scarecard that shouldn't really hit him often, or he'll have to be crazy/bad enough to raise a worse Ace for some insane reason.


Why do you think that river is bad for us? It only hits 89 and some weird hands like AT, JT or T7s, which aren't a big part of his range.

A Jack, an 8, a 3 and any club are the scarecards for us imo.

I don't get the check on the turn. Bet on the flop I see as fine $45 into an $80 pot. But to hit your card on the turn and then check call is a mistake, I think. By checking you get yourself no information what so ever and if he checks?
I would bet 70% of pot on the turn $100-$120. If he calls then I would definitely lead out on the river again. If he raises you then only 2 options left fold or allin :-)

I think you absolutely MUST bet this turn.

Otherwise, you're missing out on a ton of value and, honestly, playing much too scared/passive - since you primary concern is that the ace may have helped him - as opposed to your concern being how it has helped you, and taking this guy to valuetown.

I mean, this is a fantastic flop to 3 barrel, especially given the ace turn. Would you ever barrel this board? If not, you should. And, if you would barrel here, you should certainly be value-betting a hand as strong as this.

Also, you have no reason to think this guy will pure float you, nor bluff the turn when you check to him. It's highly unlikely. His most likely hands are going to be weaker pairs and draws on this board, and it doesn't really make much sense for him to bet many of them when you check since the ace is most conceivably part of the range you're representing. Of course, he might spaz, but I don't think you should be planning your hand around that idea at this point. With the information you have, the board texture, and your hand strength, you should be focused on value-betting.

As far as the river play goes, that's another story. There, I really don't mind a check. In fact, I think it's probably best most of the time. More than likely most of his hands that would have peeled the turn after you bet into an ace are going to be draws, so give him a chance to bluff when he misses. Unless you have a very aggressive image, or this guy is in the habit of calling down three streets with less than top pair, then I think that checking the river is best.

Another tip, if you're going to c-bet this flop, I'd tend to bet more. In either case, be prepared to barrel. Live games tend to play very loose, and typically, quite passively.

In other words, I don't expect him to limp/fold often for $35, particularly not when he has position. And when you c-bet a little more than half pot, I also don't expect him to fold if he has just about anything, gutshots and some backdoor draws (like QTss) included. These guys want to play hands and see cards. They aren't necessarily stubborn or tricky, they just want to try and make hands and win pots. Not only do I expect him to hardly fold to your c-bet, but it's going to create quite a lot of ambiguity for you because your bet is basically going to keep like 85% of his range in the hand. With that in mind, I also see those same players, who will peel so light here for $45, but fold huge hands face-up when facing just a little more aggression. It seems that if they get the inclination that you might want to put your stack in the middle, they quickly lose interest and wait for the nuts. That is why I'd lean towards a c-bet of $55+.



Was your thinking proper?

No, I don't agree. I think you should have been focused on vaue-betting the turn 100%. Although, you were fine to raise pre-flop. And, c-betting this flop is just fine HU or 3-way.

However, be prepared to barrel if you're going to bother c-betting, regardless of whether you're in position or OOP. In particular, barrel any over-card that falls and very often any club. The reason why is because your opponent is going to be playing too loose and too passive. He won't often be able to call twice because he'll have called the flop too light to begin with, and there are plenty of good scare cards to come.

And because he is likely playing too loose and too passive, this makes betting the ace turn mandatory. He is too loose, thus, vs his range your hand is quite strong, and certainly worth a bet. He is too passive, therefore, you can't expect him to really bluff or value-bet worse.



What should you be thinking in a similar spot next time?

I think the point in the hand where you went wrong is the flop. I have a feeling you were one-and-done with your c-bet on this board. If he called and you didn't improve, you were done with the hand.

I think that you should have given a little more consideration to a few things before you even bothered to c-bet.

First, you should have begun thinking about his probable range as soon as he called your raise. Do you think this guy has only small PPs trying to flop a set? Does he have SCs? Is he the type to limp two broadways in EP and call raises? Does he raise AK in EP?

I know this guy has only been at the table for 30 mins and hasn't made it to many SDs, but I'd be using every little bit of information I had to try and start deducing some sort of range and mindset for him to help me plan the rest of the hand. But without that information, I'm going to stick with the loose-passive theme. I'm also going to give him a wider (but not too wide) range and include hands like two broadways, JTo, SCs, and PPs, but leave out hands like Q5s.

The flop is a fine flop to c-bet HU. I'd c-bet expecting to win some money on average with that play alone, and as a semi-bluff (another reason to bet more on the flop...). You could probably do OK if your gameplan was to give up right there. But I think you could do better to think ahead further in the hand before you even bother to c-bet. Reassess his range if he calls. Now, what types of hands is he most likely to have? What cards could you barrel that would be scare-cards to him? What cards would be bad to bluff at?

As I said before, I think his range on the flop is mostly weak pairs and draws. You don't need to think too clearly about what specific cards he might have in his hand. Just bet against his range. (I think his range is too wide when he peels this flop that I'd actually bluff some of the cards that might end up helping him because I think they will also very likely scare him. I think the worst bluffing cards are probably Js, 7s, and 4s, though I'd still fire quite often because he'll also have draws that fold once the board pairs, or PPs that can't stand too much pressure.)

As far as ch/r'ing the turn goes, I don't think it's really a play you should ever make in this size of a pot with these stack sizes without some sick leveling dynamic. I see no reason to ch/r this turn except as possibly some sort of bluff or semi-bluff. With your hand, if you're trying to induce bluffs, etc., then you need to allow him to bluff the river too. I doubt he will even get the stacks in.

It seems like a ch/r on the turn here is forcing worse hands to fold and isn't really getting called too often by worse, though it surely could. But I'd imagine you're committing here, so... it's really awkward and looks nutted or like a semi-bluff. It looks like you're overly concerned with locking up the pot as is instead of collecting a little more from this guy with the turned nuts.

Never, ever raise river. WTF?

+1 Absolutely. If you are going to take away one reply from this post, listen to this one. Although I probably wouldn't instafold the turn b/c villian could easily be semibluffing or making some horrible raise with a bad ace with the A.

So people don't think that A7, A4, AJ, AT and other Ax hands are really in villain's range here? I thought strongly that they were and is partly why I check called the turn and river. Not sure whether I could raise the river either or just put it all-in there (opening) and expect to be called by worse often enough to make it +EV. But it probably is.

I think we can bet/fold the turn.

Check/call turn is fine. (if he checks back the turn we can overbet a lot of non-club rivers and let them hero-call with 99+ - he'll call a larger bet on the river than the turn b/c he is closing the action). If we bomb the turn then we're folding out a lot of worse hands and putting ourselves in an awkward spot if he decides to raise or call. If we bomb the turn and he calls, we're basically setting ourselves up to get stacks in by the river with our one pair hand.

C/R river to 200. His vbet of 75 into 317 is telling you he has at best ace rag.

They don't bet this weak on 2 consecutive streets with better than ace rag.

There's all kinds of J9 and T9 type garbage in his range which is why i don't mind the turn check.

c/r river is pretty bad unless you think villain is capable of calling worse. most likely villain is weak, but doesn't mean that he is calling a river raise with worse.

bet turn and river (small river bet) for value. obviously fold to a raise. villain can have 2 pair, but most likely there are many more hands like draws and even a stubborn Jx that decides to peel the turn.