$2/5 NLH- 9 handed in early 2019 (Found this hand while scrolling through ancient notes lol)
Villain in CO w/ 1100 effective stack- TAG image but is known to double barrel alot.
Hero in BB- TAG/Nit image

Folds to villain who opens to $15, Hero completes BB w/ KsQh. Pot $32

Flop- AsKdTs. Hero check, Villain c-bets $25, Hero call. Pot $75 (rake)
Turn- 4s Hero check, Villain $50. Hero call. Pot $175
River- Tc Hero check, Villain $75, Hero $350. Villain 1 min tank fold

Pretty standard play by hero until river imo. The $75 is just such a weird small bet, screams thin value. And with my history with the villain he bombs away when he has it on the river almost 100%. And on this exact board its sooo coordinated that he would bet huge with any boat or flush to get called by a flush, straight, or possibly Tx.

So I was thinking in game he's capped to QJ, AK, or AQ. Tx is highly unlikely. I block the nut flush which limits his flush combos by a lot. And he would bet bigger with a boat or flush based on history. Also, based on my nitty image I believed he perceived me as almost never bluffing. Also, KsQx has sick blocking properties to flush, straights, and some boats.

This hand also shows how titrating down your bet size is important, and needs to be properly balanced. If you only size down for value with thinner value bets, you'll get punished. In fairness, he did size down correctly because I do rarely have many strong hands and he has the nut advantage and marginal range advantage. But this villain I know is definitely not protected enough with nut hands when sizing down.

Idk, is this a profitable play or just spew? If I had to guess he had AK

Looks good. Your reasoning seems sound.

Nice hand. My question would be if you were setting up the play the entire hand or did you raise off his light bet and river body language?

I think its closer to spew, i think heros stronger hands tend to xr sooner or lead river, but congrats on leveraging a read sucessfully.

Hero is mostly repping at, kt exactly. I wouldn't be that surprised if kq was good anyway vs villain b_fing ax hands, which seems pretty poor as a strategy. Especially if bluff raised off a chop.

^^ Hero is losing vs Ax hands.

You should have all nearly all AT/KT here, so using this as a bluff seems pretty solid. WP.

These are relevant points, but a few questions I would ask myself are:

a) What is my x/r bluff range here?
b) What is my x/r value range here?
c) How are we balanced? What should our sizing be based on that balance?

Hand seems well played. We can credibly hold all combos of AT & KT based on earlier action. We can prob show up with some small-medium flushes as well. Our river raise offers V around 2.2 to 1 pot odds. This is probably our weakest hand we get to river with, and it has very appealing removal effects to bluff with

I don't think bluffing should make up much of your strategy at LL. That said I think the pre condition here is that villain is reasonably competent, is able to know big river raises are generally very very strong. Added to this is the fact that his river bet seems a bit weak sauce, I don't think this is crazy.

@reyogold- On the turn it felt like I had just enough showdown value, and drawing to the nuts, to just call. Didn't want to turn hand into bluff/ game theory disaster mode. On the river yes, used light bet, body language, history, and good bluff candidate.

@Axel Foley- a)KsQx, KsJx, QT, JT. boat/flush/straight blocker bluffs idk.
b) KT, AT, TT, some KsXs traps. (a lot of these combos would raise before river obv)
c) Don't think I'm balanced but villain isn't here either with his face up thin value bet. So I went exploitive with the check raise and my nitty image. Definitely wouldn't check raise an unknown stationy fish in this spot.

Don't think you would turn trips into a bluff (QT/JT)

Depends on how V views Hero.

What's Hero's playing style? Does hero typically raise two pair, a flopped set or a made straight here? Would Hero raise the turn if he made his flush, or wait until the river? If Hero tends to trap and call, then this bluff is an excellent one. But if Hero tends to raise strong hands here on the flop and turn, then the raise only makes sense if you have Tx plus a straight draw....so QT or JT and you're holding on with bottom pair. And Hero would tend to fold on the turn since he described himself as tight.

Since you described yourself as a nit, I like the play. It looks super strong, where your range is AT, KT or TT most of the time. You just have to hope V has noticed that and can fold a hand like AK or a small flush.