8 handed game with roughly $1000 effective stacks. Main villain hasn't been here for the long, but I'm assuming he's a regular as the other regs know him and he seems to be playing well. He sat with $500 and doubled up his first hand against a fish.

Hero has about $1300, been playing relatively TAG and recently got caught running a bluff.

Would like some thoughts on the best river play, though wouldn't mind comments on any street.

UTG straddles for $10, Villain in MP raises to $30, we call on the button w/99, the blinds fold and the straddle calls.

Flop ($95) 984 rainbow
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $45, UTG folds, MP calls

Turn ($185) 5
MP checks, Hero bets $110, MP calls

River ($405) J
MP bets $180, Hero ???

I think this is a weird spot for a lead as I have a lot more nutted hands in my range than he does. I have all the sets except 5s (though I'm betting this flop with a high frequency and might turn 5s into a bluff too), and some straights with 76s, and QTs (not sure if I barrel turn with that) whereas it's hard for him to have those. He definitely has 88 and JJ in his range, and the latter worries me a little bit. I'm way too high up in my range to think about folding getting 3 to 1, but is this a call or a raise? There's about $600 behind in villains stack after his bet.

It's definitely a raise. Just a matter of how much. I think since you got caught running a bluff shoving has the most value. Most live 2/5 regs won't have JJ here especially with the straddler in the hand who is presumably a fish whos flatting range hits this board pretty often. I would say he has AJ or 55 here at a much higher frequency than JJ.

I disagree that this is a raise. We don't know much about mp, so there a chance he could get slightly tricky pre and raise with hands like 67s or q10 suited. It's also very likely that he has 88,55. I think we can rule out JJ after he check/calls the flop. This is definitely a call, but definitely never folding, and I think on order to raise you need more info on villain. If you were playing a $500 stack I would like raising, but not playing 250bb deep.

raise all in. I think this is a defensive bet with TPGK. You getting caught bluffing before is great for a shove also.

I'm a wimp. Lacking better reads on this villain, I just call.

This bet looks like either TPGK (maybe J10?) or the nut straight. JJ, 88, and 55 are all unlikely to take his line. Q10, 107, 76 all could definitely take it though.

I expect him to fold the hands we beat and snap call the hands that beat us. The only hands I lose money against are 88 and 55... and this would be a super-weird line for either of those sets.

The hand that I got caught bluffing I had 75s in position in a limped pot, I floated a small bet on 336, bet a 2 turn and 6 River when checked to. Didn't see the other guy's hand as I mucked and here you don't have to show to win when the bettor mucks at showdown (if I knew that I would've turned my hand over). If that is effecting villains play in this hand, shouldn't he be letting me barrel off?

I guess a good place to start would be constructing a range for him check/calling the flop and turn. Flop is probably pretty wide maybe any pair. The turn bet is more sizable so it should narrow his range a bit.

JT and hands like K9 seem the most probable to me post turn. Possibly 89suited.

Shove, ainec.