2-5NL, 10 player

Villain: 30-40 male, playing a strong LAG game probably like 25/20. Dictating the pace of the table. Aggressive in late position. Taking down a lot of pots without showdown. Cbet around 30%. He's stuck around $500-600 though after losing a smaller SPR pot with A/K flopped TPTK vs. flopped 2p K/5 and losing a $1400+ pot with flopped middle set vs. a player who 4bet the flop all-in on a flush draw/2 flop overs and hit a heart on the turn. He has rebuilt his stack up to about $700 again at the time of this hand.

Hero: Currently playing TAG based on table pace. Went heads up with villain earlier and forced him to fold with a river x/r on a wet board with a player all-in on the river (was bluffing, Hero won side pot but Villain saw the air). Villain has seen Hero trap players on 2-3 hands. About $625 in stack.

Pre-flop: folds around to MP, limp $5, Hero raises to $20 in HJ with 98, CO calls, Villain 3b to $40 on BTN, MP calls $40, Hero calls.

Flop:

974
hero check, CO check, villain bets $75, hero call, CO fold

Turn:
3
hero check, villain check

River:
2
hero bets $90, villain raise to $225

hero?

Why you bet the river


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Yeah why are you betting the river? It's a clear x/call or x/decide and probably call. But since your bet was so weak (90 into 270), and villain is a LAG (LAGs like to raise weak bets), I'm leaning towards a call.

What's villains' 3! range?

I'll explain the river bet soon.

His 3b range seems pretty tight overall. The table in general has only seen a half dozen 3b preflop for about 2 hours.

Any bet-sizing tell on a preflop click-back?

The action seems weird. Can you double-check. MP/CO seems mixed up.

Why don't you explain the river bet first, since I'm sure that it has some information in it that we ought to know.

Like 'I bet the river to go for thin value because I've seen him do xyz recently'.
Then we can all comment with more information.

fold to the 3bet. ainecal.

I don't understand your question about the river raise. Are you asking how fast you should fold, or tank/fold?

Sorry, CO called pre-flop after the squeeze not MP.

As far as river donk bet, saw villain fold queens face up earlier to value-sized agression by a tight player about 40 minutes earlier (and made good fold) Hoped to push off 1010-JJ.

He'd also been mixing up his betting a lot so a turn check here wouldn't be surprising even with an overpair. Had table pretty confused overall.

Probably folding to this 3! then.

yea I don't like the river bet. maybe hero used it to induce a bluff? that's the only logic I can see behind betting the river, seems extremely optimistic to be expecting to get called by a worse hand. that being said, the bet does look really weak and the LAG will very likely be aware of this. his sizing worries me a bit though, as it looks so much like a value raise as opposed to a bluff. that being said, I don't think we can fold getting better than 4:1. crying call i guess

is this part of that GTO movement

I don't see anything in V's read that says he's bluffed ever in his life.

Ok, so I was trying to think this through as the "hero" but I was actually the villain here. I was playing a lot more LAG on the table than I usually do because it had a unique composition of TAGs that I felt like I could exploit. The "hero" in this hand had been afraid to commit top pair on a few hands about an hour earlier even on neutral boards. Yes, I made the river raise after detecting some weakness in his bet, although I was definitely considering that he was trying to set me up. I definitely wanted it to look like a value raise because I whiffed with Ad/Qd and he folded to my raise after going in the tank for a minute. I think he was average to above average of a player, so I didn't think he'd call and I was right but I'm trying to see if this line works for others because it's not a normal part of my repetoire but I gave it a try. He folded face up by the way (thus why I'm able to try to see this from his perspective).

By the way, this session was one of the most fun I've ever had, yet I lost $200. I feel like I played some of my best poker ever overall but man I ran bad. Lost 3 pots of $800-$1400 when I was a 70%+ favorite with all of the money in on the flop. So rough. Table was so off kilter that I was getting attacked hard when I had monsters.

What's your range on the river?

What's his range on the river?

Here is the logical conclusion to your thought process.
A few posts up you say that you are hoping to push him off TT-JJ. Therefore you are bluffing. If you think he folds those hands, then you must also think that he just calls with QQ-AA. This means that you think he sometimes calls with one pair and sometimes folds with one pair. This means that when villain raises, he is now polarized to 2 pair+ and air. Considering you said he has a tight 3b range, it would seem that it's tough for him to have much here. So call.

That being said, I think you are wrong somewhere. A) I don't think he folds 1 pair on the river after checking turn. Ever. B) I don't think his 3b range is that tight, especially considering he minraised you pre. C) You said he's playing a strong LAG game, which makes us assume that he decent and is aware of his image. Your image is tight and you opened. He would have to be awful to try to make you fold your range here with a river raise after he checked the turn. So fold.

BB&V is here by the way.

your V made a standard fold. However, when someone donks out otr, they usually have you beat. So idk how great your bluff was (especially your sizing). He happened to be at the very bottom of his range.

Way to go... you gave us a hand history from the point of view of a fish and got responses from 2p2ers. Most of us are not betting this river, so our commentary on the calling the river raise doesn't apply because we don't play a hand that way. Trying to make sense of a hand with two people clicking buttons without knowing either thought process makes for useless discussion. If you posted it from your own point of view with commentary about why you were clicking the buttons that you were, you might have gotten some feedback about why you don't see profitable players taking either line too often.

A valid point, and one I considered. I still felt that there was enough perspective to be gleaned from the answers though. I feel like it would be too hard to post this as a standard perspective because it would be difficult for me to go through the history of a few hours to support why I took this line against the other player. Without me providing that history in enough depth I already knew what the recommended river action would have been (and in most situations I would have given up the hand as well based on its progression).

Just trying to get some information on a non-standard line that I took. I felt like double barreling here wasn't going to work.

V is described as LAG playing 25/20 who aware of position and is winning a lot of pots without showdown. unless you think he's on a sick heater, I'd be willing to bet he's capable of bluffing

I think hero played this hand well with 2 caveats. I only like it if he would play JJ+ this way also. Most people (especially LAGs) would never check that turn with an overpair....and I think the river bluff raise needs to be $300+

A river raise is so very rarely a bluff at 2/5 or lower that this will work almost every time unless the guy with 98s has JJ+

this is def. true, but another thing that's def. true is people in 2/5 and lower don't like to fold and they call too much. The min-sized raise is pretty much only beating a bluff or a hand turned into a bluff.

I was afraid a bluff too large would look suspicious if I was playing LAG. I thought it would be better to represent value without making it too small that he calls me with odds. I may have been wrong, though. Appreciate the feedback.

The V played the hand pretty awful and non-standard so there's not much to gain from the discussion. Once he calls your flop bet, he is pretty much committed to the pot unless an A peels, so his river fold is really bad, especially given your LAG image.

Most villains wouldn't fold any pair here on the river as played so they would just c/c. The fact that he lead out kind of polarizes him to a weak hand or a monster like KK+ or set. But what weak hands would c/c your flop bet? His range here should be only medium strength hands or monsters and the fact that he bet/ folded a medium strength hand to a LAG is beyond comprehension.

Why call preflop $40 with only $600 or so effective?
Why bet the river? Just to get raise and lose now $40+$90=$130
Do you believe you can take a pot down of $275 at the river with your bet?
The other villains will just hand the pot over or even more fantasy: they will call the $90 and you win it all. ... .......