Villain is young girl who used to deal at the casino were playing at but now plays full time. She dates a $5/$10 NL reg who I'm sure gets coached by him. Hero has also played with the bf and knows he has aggressive tendencies. She also plays the same limit as her bf most of the time. This is the first pot hero and villain have gotten involved in. Other than these facts no real read on her except for narrow pf range by the way she is on her iPad camping.

Playing in a 1k max table w 1500 effective stack (villain has hero covered).

Villain: opens cut off to $25
Btn: calls
Hero: calls in sb w: KcTs
Pot: $80
Flop: 4s Ts Td
Villain: c bets $50
Btn: folds
Hero: calls from sb
Pot: $180
Turn: 9h
Hero: leads $115
Villain: quickly two bets to $345
Hero: three bets clicks to $645
Pot: $1470
Villain: stares and tank jams...
????
Hero: has roughly ~$700 behind

As played, is it a reasonable tank spot? By 'tank' I mean 2-3 minutes. Is villain ever bluffing?

Fold Pre.

Villain has 44 or a T, heavily weighted toward AT or 9T.

Now that you have gotten 1/2 your stack in getting 2:1 folding is a mistake.

This is as played.. Want to know if it's reasonable to tank here or do I snap ship due to odds? Bc I got needled for tanking by a fellow reg.

Will spoil hand later.

Ok has played, short tank to do range and math then ship.

I left out 99 from Villains range. Over-pairs? if Villain is fishy pro Girl Friend

I can't see her as ever bluffing in this spot after you 3-bet her. I mean, is she ever jamming here with QT/JT???

You flat flop and then lead/3-bet on a more or less blank turn and you are in the SB. Your hand is 100% face up as Tx. If she is at all a thinking player, your hand is face up as Tx.

The only way she could be bluffing is if you made the mistake of showing the table big folds earlier and or folding to her every single time she put pressure on you. If that was the case, then we call here.

But if you have been playing more or less normal and she has no cause to think she can fold you off Tx hands, then this is an easy fold. She has 44, T9, AT, KT, or a luckboxed 99 or even a ******ed T4s.

Only way we call here is if she is Level I and will go to war with any Tx or if she has been super aggro and just 3-bet/4-bet shoving all day long. Otherwise, if she is a decent thinking player who hasn't really gotten out of line, this is a fold.

Or put another way, she doesn't bluff enough for a call here to be profitable. I know it seems sick to turn KT into a bluff catcher but that is essentially what it is in this spot since your hand is 100% face up at Tx.

I mean, you're getting needled likely because you should know exactly what you are going to do in this spot before you 3-bet the turn. Even if it is slightly (?) unexpected.

As DGH says, your hand is pretty well face-up. She's almost never bluffing here.

Fold preflop. KTo is barely worth limping behind here, calling a raise out of the SB vs a tight raising range is terrible.

A normal villain is never bluffing here, and most of her range beats you. The first raise on turn is unlikely to be a bluff but could be and she might be betting an over pair for value or to find out if your serious or not. Once she shoves most of that falls out. A worse TX is unlikely but JT is somewhat possible and QTs if her range is wider then you think. The tank/shove looks more like 44/99/AT convincing themselves you don't have T9 here.

I think this is a spot where suits matter quite a bit also.
Was there a spade draw on the flop?

You listed you hand as KT
And the board as TT4
She might put you on a spade draw, with some sort of combo straight draw to go along with it. KQ KJ QJ:spade 67 68 78 type hands.
If that's the case then she can jam wider, including hands we beat like TJ/QT, KK/AA as well as the hands that beat us AT/44.

Something to keep in mind.
Always make sure that you have your hands posted right if you want the best possible feedback.

as played* I wouldn't have led out on the turn. If she missed, she's only going to fold. If she checked behind, we can make a bluff looking bet on the river.

After she raised your turn bet and we 3bet her, we need to know what to do with a 4bet before making the bet - are we willing to go broke with trips? if we have to fold why make the 4bet to begin with? IMO it would be a call or fold to her turn 3bet.

I am sure she isn't willing to go broke with anything less than a FH after her jam.


*you labeled her to have a narrow pf range but you flatted her out of position. If anything I would have 3bet/fold pf, assuming she is a little less narrow in the CO (I am assuming no one limped in front of her).

Against a range of 99,44, ATs-T9s, and AToff we are around 30% a little worse than a 2:1 dog.

Add KT-JToff and we are around 47% remember Villain opened from the cutoff.

Add over-pairs AA,KK and we are at 60%.

I cant fold getting 2:1 here.

I wanted to highlight the above because it's one of the biggest leaks that thinking players have when they level themselves.

AA/KK is never 4-bet jamming in this spot. Not ever. Even if they "suspect" us of having a FD in our range they just aren't going to 4-bet jam since there are too many Tx hands in our range here especially since we are the small blind.

Same with JT and QT. This isn't 1/2nl, this is a deep stack 2/5nl table that for all intents and purposes can be thought of as a 5/10nl table. And players at this level aren't going to spazz out here and 4-bet shove in this spot vs the SB with JT/QT given the progression of the action.

Sometimes I think the Achilles heel of thinking players is dreaming up situations in which our villains "can" do this or that or make a sick move or have a wide range etc etc when in reality villain would never do those things. What you see is what you get. And when a nitty player 4-bet shoves you on a board like this for $1k, its the freaking fullhouse 99% of the time.

What you see is what you get. A duck is a duck, a cigar is just a cigar, and when a nitty player 4-bet shoves you for $1k+ stacks, its the near nuts.

I'm not going to say that your wrong because you're likely right, but my post was most trying to point out that the board needs to be remembered correctly and posted correctly in order to get the best responses.

OP has the same card listed twice here. Obv not possible.

OP I think we can now say after some debate tanking is reasonable.

I agree that Villains range is very heavily weighted towards hands that beat us.

Think of this in another way...

Her value range is so much stronger that her bluffing frequency cannot possibly be big enough to make this a call in any sense in the long run.

I.e., she might be bluffing here 5% of the time. But you beat absolutely nothing in her value range.

I'd say tanking for 60s would be an awfully long time for this situation.

She has no read on me and I have been pretty snug so far in the session due to a loose fish that was 6k deep and over betting/raising. I felt pretty sick on turn bc, like you said, I'm only catching bluffs now. A fold is also never out of the question also. I think you explained it very logical here. Basically, everything u said went through my mind while tanking.

Sorry my hand was KsTc

I think it's clear there's way to much in the pot to fold. The real problem is calling pre IMO huge donkey leak- especially oop. Just muck that **** man

Plus you said she's a nit. Why on earth did you call pre?

You should have never made it $645 if you weren't snapping the rest.

That is why you were needled.

She would have to be pretty freaking aggro AND know Im capable of folding Tx for this to be a call and that doesn't sound like the case.

Also flatting KTo OOP 300bbs deep vs someone playing on an iPad waiting for a hand is horrispew.

Just want to contribute a clarification to some previous posts.

We're not getting 2:1. We're getting 3:1.

Fold pre. /thread

Why did you 3b the turn? What hands do you think she is calling or shoving with? I would have flatted the raise and b/f river.

PF call and turn 3-bet are huge leaks. Fold pre, and as played, flat the turn raise.

Bc my hand is under repped by donking there. Keep in mind I flatted otf. I can have a lot of 9x hands that float, PPs that don't beat her, FDs, and a whole lot of my range that will confuse the sh*t out of her which worked.

I'm playing for implied odds if i think she has a big hand she can't get away from. Three bet turn is a must IMO. If she thinks her OP is good then she will two bet the turn purely for value. So essentially her reraise is a cbet but bloats the pot to play for stacks. I was pretty sure she would never 4bet jam here which is why I tanked. I got what I wanted basically but got caught off guard.

Wasn't really looking for how to play hand but rather if it's reasonable to tank there.

So she ended up turning AA into a bluff which I thought was very spewy. She said "I figured you had a T but thought I could move you off" lol