Hello LLSNL. George Kittle, new to 2p2, trying to take review and study more seriously over the second half of the year. What that process looks like is still being finalized, but this hand has been bouncing around in my head for a day or two and I'm interested in some thoughts. Thanks for the time.

2/5 NL - no relevant reads, game has only been running for 30~ minutes - all players are 100-125bb deep

MP ($580) limp
HJ ($500) limp
HERO CO ($640) raise to $40 w/ QQ

MP call, HJ call (both relatively quickly)

FLOP ($127) JJ7

MP bets $120, HJ folds, HERO calls.

TURN ($367) 8

MP goes all-in for $420, HERO?

I have some general thoughts about the hand - will add below tomorrow. Thanks again.

Usually a JX hand would check flop to the raiser and hope there is a cbet. There is also the HJ, so I'd discount a jack.

Turn - if he has 88, bad luck, still calling it off.

Without prior info I fold on the turn.

Villain led into the initial raiser and over-betting pot indicates real strength that’s probably vulnerable in some manner (straight and flush draws by the turn).

Wouldn’t surprise me to see something like JK-J9 here.

Nothing else really makes sense and there’s no hand you’re beating that plays like this.

Vill is clearly a fish with the limp-call of $40 and then leading out on this flop. That said I can see him having TT and 99 because that's how fish play those hands. Still, I see your point and agree that he will still have Jx very often here as well. As a thinking player we are asking "would he just lead out for pot with Jx?". Bad players will and this guy seems bad.

I think this is a call but it's close.

People don't generally just spazz off like that. Maybe he's a maniac but until we have that information I think this is a fold.

We’re in agreement that Villain is probably terrible. I just see the overbet on the turn as “gotta protect my hand against a flush!” moreso than anything else.

Call. Pretty rare to see someone just pot a jack here on a rainbow board and then jam the turn.

This is just such a random line that V is taking.

I can't imagine a draw that he would have OTF. I can't imagine him having a jack. I think 88 makes the most sense as unlikely as it seems. He might have bet OTF to see where he's at / buy a cheap showdown. Then OTT he overbet, thinking you might have a Jack and didn't want a scare card on the river.

99 and TT would check turn, surely.

In reality I would literally flip a coin. This line is just so unlikely and polarized I would flip a coin just to make his bluffs 0EV, then move on to the next hand.

This is really tough vs. an unknown. It's just a soul-read at the table. He could have 9T, but still a weird way to play it -- seems he would check flop. Any vibes -- is he young, old, dressed in a hoodie or suit? Is he comfortable at the table?

I've actually started betting when I hit a flop hard because nobody believes/thinks I should bet it. For example, I'll bet JT here. It's working pretty well. Not sure about shoving the turn, though. Tough way to get value vs. most players -- although it would work here

Before we get to those general thoughts...I folded turn. There have been a few "What was the guy like?" questions here and in other conversations in this hand has appeared in. We're still not quite sure - he picked up 20 something minutes later. Gone but not forgotten.

Now those thoughts:

I believe this to be generally true and one of the more interesting things about the hand. Because there are players that will never spazz out. Ever. And then there are players that will.

Players that will spazz have the ability to shut down, but a player that will never spazz out never takes this line with anything less than three jacks.

That makes figuring out who we are playing against of the upmost importance.

Mid 50s, casual summer weekend look, clean cut, smooth at the table, knows what he is doing and can tell who else does/doesn't in the game.

I don't think I'd go pot flop/over bet turn - but "spazzy" aggression like this does seem like the best way to get the money in if "Sigh call" is the general consensus. Like Javanewt said, "Tough way to get value -- although it would work here"

"Would it work here?" - use this line of thinking at your own risk

Followed this thought process in-hand as well.

(Thinking opponent was weak after limp-call and then giving him a little more credit after bombing turn.)

I'm guilty of overthinking some very straightforward play from weak players. Is it wrong to dumb down to their level to make these decisions or is that overthinking it even more.

Thanks for all the replies guys.

call if you're actually george kittle. fold otherwise.

Call. Think we are good here >50%

"I can't see him having a jack here" is just purely leveling yourself by assuming your opponent is playing a standard preflop range. This is Jx almost always and 88 every other time.

It would work vs. most of the posters who replied to your post I fold vs. this guy.

Call, demand $15 mil a year in free agency if you don't resign, then move up in stakes.

This could easily be JT suited or 9T suited. If you're calling, what are you hoping he has? I just can't see what hand he takes this line with that you're ahead of. Maybe AQ of diamonds?