Hero(1000,HJ): Hero just sat down and first hand. Most players on the table knows hero and sees hero as the action players.
V(1500,MP) A lot history. Probably sees hero as loose player and very aggressive when checks to hero.


UTG raised to 20, one caller, V calls and another caller. Hero raised to 145 with JJ. Only V calls

Flop(350):742r

V check called 180

Turn(710):K

V check called 260

River(1230):2

V checked, hero went all. Targeting TT 99...

Da ****?

Seems like a bit big preflop, but whatever.

Flop is standard.

Turn - I prefer to check and bluff catch river here. His UTG raise combined with flop call indicate that he has some sort of pocket pair, and maybe a small dose of AK. Your bet here is going to get him to call better and fold worse (with the exception of maybe QQ).

River - I mean, I wouldnt target 99, TT, I'd target AK QQ. But as played, Id check.

There's no advice anyone can give you if you're playing in a game where villain calls turn and river with worse.

Otf i like a 1/3, and still barreling with JJ and my whole flop cbet range (even QQ). 1/3 flop forces him to defend flop much wider, puts more actual and perceived bluff combos in our range, and he’ll also defend wider ott in theory and in practice.

1/2 flop on a bone dry board then barreling K turn is meh, cuz his range for calling flop is more narrow now than if you 1/3, but also checking turn kind of sucks too. When we have a huge range advantage generally we should just be pushing it and merging, esp if we 1/3 flop and force V to continuen with wider range of hands than just TP+ (ie A high + backdoors, AQo, etc).

On this flop and turn runout 1/3 and barreling K turn is almost always going to do better than betting flop big and then splitting your range ott. You’re not really sure what to do on rivers and can end up leveling yourself into making bad mistakes (ie overfold or station too much), and without really knowing his frequencies we just get into “oh he knows I probably dont have a K or better so he might be trying to bluff me, must cawl” or “i dont think he’d bluff here since he knows the K is good for my range.” You have many opportunities to make mistakes, and even if he checks, are you supposed to vbet? Any V who is smart knows you’re capped here and an aggro reg/good hand reader could easy x/shove and turn pairs into bluffs

1/3 flop barrel turn about 1/2, put your opponent to the test and force them to make the mistakes. It’s extremely difficult to play back at this type of strategy on this board.

Try putting yourself in V’s shoes and trying to figure out which hands to defend otf vs a small sizing, and then what hands to defend ott. You’ll have a lot of trouble ott bc you have a relatively wide range going to the turn but IP player has stack leverage for a river shove, you’re relatively capped, and you have a lot of weak hands that cant take action but if you fold your entire range here obviously there’s a huge hole in your strat (as V you dont ever have AK here, even floating KQ backdoor FD is pretty bad vs this sizing). I mean yeah V can have 9 combos of sets here but if he only defends 9 combos out of the many he’s defending flop with vs 1/3, we have an insanely profitable strategy here. And if he’s not defending flop wide enough in the first place... well you can see where this is going.

I like sizing on the flop, I don't think he has much Kx in his range so if you have crazy image then going for value seems to make sense; he should be 3!'ing his AK pre-flop however some players do just flat AK pre sometimes but we can discount AK pretty heavily , so maybe he has KQ or KJ but mainly PP's and draws (SC's), maybe some AX with a pair;

The river bet is a bit ambitious but I get it if you are trying to play to your image, you may only be getting called by better on the river so should consider checking back

WP up to riv then just check it back. The primary reason to bet turn imo is to deny equity and to make sure we dont face a big bet OTR by a balanced range of hands that beat us and bluffs. But i really dont see much value in betting the river, u said urself that we target TT and 99 but thats really not many hands

Your hand reading is spot on. He is heavily weighted to 99-QQ.

Only you know meta game going on. On paper a bet looks awful on river.