V(1200,SB) 40s Mexican guy. Crazy action. In the game for 3000 and plays every hands. 83 92 off raise or call raise. I played him once before, he bluffed a lot that session but didn’t bluff too much today. Just calling station.

V probably sees me as nits.

UTG+1(400) raises to 25, 3 callers. V in sb 3b to 125. Hero(2600) wakes up with JJ in BB. Hero? v calls or raises a lot but this is first time 3b.

UTG+1 is loose bad player.

400/c

Might jam. Not calling.

Jam ok if you think he just calls pairs.

I'm just mucking. This is awful deep to be getting it in against a first-time threebetter, even vs a generally loose player, and particularly when that threebet comes out of the SB in a multiway pot. It's not like the guy is thinking "omg I can make a squeeze play, look at that dead money", he doesn't think about poker like that.

The basic problem with this spot is that the worst case scenario, where he always has a bigger pair, is pretty plausible and a huge money loser, while the best case scenario is that JJ is even money against his range and you eke out a small profit. For example, JJ is even money against { TT+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo } and it's hard to imagine this guy is even that loose considering he's never threebet before.

Flatting might be reasonable, but it doesn't solve the basic problem that the chance of this guy having a very strong range is high, and it seems like the benefits of setmining etc are going to get wiped out by the times you get whipsawed by UTG+1. (Running into UTG+1 happening to have QQ+ is completely plausible as well, obviously).

Lol

He’s down 3k JJ is the nuts. Your argument is sound, but gameflow is more important than anything to me. It’s 1200 (assuming no deep stacks that flatted the 25), prime directive is to get stacks in as often as possible against this guy and I’m expanding that gii pre range easily to JJ, even against a 3b.

I think that's pretty speculative. The OP suggests neither that this guy is mad about being down 3K nor that he will react to this by getting more aggro pre. What the OP does do is describe this guy as a "calling station" and say that he has never threebet pre in two sessions. I think what you're doing there is archetyping the guy as a standard-issue maniac and drawing secondary conclusions from that instead of dealing with the individual player OP presented.

The problem with this is that if you're right and he's getting frisky, it's a good but not amazing spot (for instance, JJ is only a 58% fave against a range as loose as 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo) whereas if I'm right and he's just what he appears to be - i.e. a guy who never threebets - you're about to flush 240BB as a 4 to 1 underdog.

Edit: Like if you just presented this hand and gave no information other than that the guy has never previously threebet in two sessions, everyone would instafold and lol at anyone suggesting anything different. Preface that with the information about him being a splashy calling station and suddenly the information about him never threebetting gets disregarded. To me that he never threebets is still the most salient information when interpreting his threebet. Assuming that a player who is otherwise loose and gambly can't also be a non-threebetter, that that has to be some mistake, is just argument from personal incredulity imo.

This.

Live vibe thing I suppose, but beyond that it’s just that the guy sucks at poker and I gotta max out these spots, it’s just a K, and calling/folding allows the goofs behind a chance to get at his stack and that cannot happen when I’m sitting there. You two can go ahead and fold and watch wait and I gonna gamble it up w the spot. Maybe we lose, but maybe he calls it a night when we stack him and the game breaks.

I mean, I respect both your thoughts and easily could go the route you described above, but given the situation as OP best described it, I am inclined to treat his ‘first 3bet’ with only a grain of respect when I have JJ. Prime directive against for me is to get stacks in pre if possible with nutted hands when we have a guy like this in the game.

I sympathise with wanting to play hands against the mark (the phrase "wait for a better spot" is yet to make an appearance in this thread, remarkably), its just that you have to be right a lot. If this guy has the range I posted before, { 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo }, which seems generous to me, you'll make about 225 to 250 by reraising, depending on whether he folds or gets it in. You lose nearly 750 by getting it in against QQ+, so the problem is that you're going to need him to be the player you're describing three times as often as the player I'm describing just to break even on getting it in.

Stacks of the callers?

Now 2 bottom up nits saying fold makes me like gii even more.

I've been in this spot many many times. Some wild man is in the game for $3000 and now trying to get unstuck. Really depends on your roll.

JJ and QQ are going to be your trouble hands in this spot OOP. 600bb deep against a maniac. (although this hand you are 250bb deep and in position)

4betting is high variance and you're going to get stacked a lot when you do it. You might win but I would advise against any high variance plays vs a whale as you can find much better spots.

Folding is the lowest variance route and also fine. I've folded TT in this spot (10% of stacks pre and out of position) - almost the same as JJ and QQ as you aren't going to like your hand unless you get a 9xx board or flop a set. Ether way you're going to need to invest at least $500 to find out where you are. Playing in position with hands that hit the nuts is how you beat these donkeys.

Calling is probably best but expect to put in at least $500 as he isn't going to check the flop - and if you're fine with that than go with it. Hopefully you flop well.

Me?? I probably call and sometimes fold - not going to 4bet as this is his first 3bet and I avoid high variance plays to get these players unstuck - they will lock it up and calm down the aggression. We have position and I don't want to lose that by 4betting, and I don't mind letting another player in, as we are likely behind his first 3bet anyways so might as well let another player in to give us the best odds to set mine.

make it 305 and pray he doesnt say all in, or make a super disciplined fold. cold call the absolute nut low

His first 3bet is QQ+ more than 50% of the time and he isn't folding many flops and probably not folding pre. Looks fine to call and go 3ways or fold to me.

4b looks like the nut-low of all 3 options by a long shot, esp vs a guy’s FIRST 3b. Extrapolating conclusions can be extremely -EV

This is undoubtedly a tricky spot, I want to see some type of 3b frequency higher than this before advocating the 4b,

how many hours have you played with him so far?

I've made a mistake against a maniac not too long ago where I over-played my hand and felt stupid, this seems like a similar spot , (flipping at best)


if he basically never 3b's then it is safe to assume he is likely not folding

I lean towards fold

Cold call and then you have to dodge utg 4betting and and also have to dodge it going 6way because there are still 4 players to act behind and have to make a decision for your stack from oop when the pfr bets on any flop. I’m not saying you can’t fold but there are plenty of reasons to never cold call in this spot.

If you flop well you're getting his stack a lot of the time. UTG rarely 4bets unless he has AA or KK and if he does oh well, we lost $125.


UTG is going to call as well as he has the same info and knows it's his first 3bet. If you 4bet you don't automatically assume UTG is folding do you? You just get it in horrible.


Like I said, folding is fine in this spot. I just usually call a lot here because it's so rare to see hands like JJ+ and I like to take a lot of spots in live poker because the game moves so slow.

It's a tough spot and super close, I've honestly been back and forth between all of our options...

If you hate variance then it's probably a fold. But personally I think we have to go with this, especially with the game dynamics, and we can win a pretty large pot in position against a crazy action V. Again it's close, but I think cold calling is best.

IME UTG+1 as a bad loose player is much more likely to overcall and close the action rather than shove over a 3bet and cold call pre. Obviously if UTG+1 calls too we need to play fairly straightforward post, but this option outweighs cold 4betting and swelling the pot, while giving V the option to raise us out the hand without ever seeing a flop.

look at eff. stacks , 4b / folding is not an option here

Which is why I said we should call

Results?