The game is 6 handed and looks like it will break soon (was a full-table 5 minutes ago). I hate playing short so I'm looking to bounce and book a nice win. I came over from a broken table about 15-20 minutes ago and have been mostly quiet, winning a few small pots by raising pre --> c-betting good flops. Villain is a 30's Asian but I have no relevant reads on him other than that he called pre and check/folded to my c-bets twice.

Effective stacks: $1900

Folds around to V OTB

V raises to $15
SB calls $15
Hero 3! JJ to $75
V 4! to $200
SB folds
Hero?

I wasn't expecting to get 4! here to be honest. I was expecting him to call or fold. It seems kind of fishy that V would raise the BTN so small with a value hand; with only the blinds to act is he really raising small to induce with a monster like AA-QQ?

What is our best option here?

1) Fold

2) Call $125 more and reassess on the flop

3) 5!/fold to $400

Puke. Definitely not 5b/folding. I would surmise his 3x open was done trying to get callers. His 4b size is also a bit on the small side. For another $125 into $290 with a lot behind, I'd call and look to bink a set, but I really hate this spot being OOP. I think I would b/f any low flop.

I play 1/2 and for me 4! is KK+ almost always.

I agree his line is a bit suspect. V might have taken it personally when you were c betting him off the flop. Maybe this is a spaz getting you back move. You're in very dangerous territory nearly 400bb deep though.

Going through the options:

1) Fold - I like folding generally and here specifically You're up, nearly going home and so far only put $75 in this pot so why not just take the easy way out right now?

2) Call $125 and assess flop: You do have odds to set-mine, not 20:1 maybe but pot is $275 and V has $1700 behind so it is 1975:125 implied plus pot odds. Trouble is what are you doing the 40% of the time you flop an overpair? I'm happy set mining but really worry about continuing without a set.

3) 5!/fold to $400: I'm not loving this considering you can set-mine and this is just turning a hand with no blockers into a bluff. What if villain ships AK (or worse AX???) and you fold? That's a nearly 100bb folding error I'm keen to avoid making.

Overall I just don't think you have sufficient info on this villain to take JJ postflop OOP and play poker. Similarly not enough info to 5!/fold and if you had info on hiw he plays calling is probably better anyway.

Set-mine > fold > call and play poker postflop > 5!/F

That's my humble and quite possibly wrong opinion. I like to test myself by being first in though so let's see what everyone else thinks...

I think calling the $125 is the best option. Folding to the 4bet is not terrible though. I think 5bet/folding is worst option by far.

How is it suspect to want to raise small with KK/AA when only blinds are left?

I don't see anything except calling as a real possibility.

5! is out of the question, IMO. If V actually has what he is repping (AA/KK), then he can flat the 5! and potentially stack you.

We are deep enough to set-mine. I would flat the 4! and set-mine. Vills $15 open doesn't mean much. The game is short handed and he is on the button. I would not exclude monster hands from his range. The fact that he is 4-betting is more important than his $15 open.

Is folding too nitty here?

I would feel exponentially more comfortable calling with QQ as he would have slightly more combos of AK (16) than value hands AA-KK (12). But since we only have JJ that gives him another 6 combos that are ahead of us making this very difficult to play when we flop an overpair OOP.

QQ won't be easier to play if V's smashing buttons post-flop.

Are you comfortable calling down if board is all low cards?

Problem here is that you are out of position, you have little to no information, and you have a PP that is no better than 22 at this point, unless your plan is to call down on most runouts with reasonable sizing.

If that's your plan, then QQ is obviously slightly better as it reduces 6 combos you're behind and adds 6 that you're ahead of.

Call and setmine vs his KK+

Certainly nothing wrong with dumping it here, V is repping a big hand and we can only really call to set mine. If we don't feel comfortable playing OOP if the flop comes low cards then lets just throw it away and lock up the win.

Yeah, you're right it's not terribly suspect. Indeed my basic preflop strat will see me do exactly as V does with AA/KK - if I ever got to open from the BTN

I think you have to be very, very careful of where "this looks suspicious..." can lead. Spew is usually the case for me.

Folding isn't too nitty and neither is calling, missing your set and x/f on flop.

I have to concur with SneakyPete here. QQ, JJ or 22, they're all the same vs a 4! In the 1/2 games I play. I imagine vs an unknown at 2/5 the same holds true. What's your experience of 4! ranges in 2/5 OP?

No!!!!

fold to the 4bet. ainec at all. slide it into the muck face down.

we have a med pocket pair basically. He raised to 200, I wouldn't even call to setmine. We barely have 10to1.

If he's spazzing off light, or 4bet/folding, then he wins. (but I highly doubt it based on his 4bet sizing) readless we have to fold, even with reads people don't 4bet without at least QQ in general.

What does this even mean?

The problem with setmining is that even if you hit you're not gonna get the whole (almost 400 BB) stack quite often enough, especially if you're OOP. Without further reads I'll probably just fold.

The problem with setmining is it's probably going to be hard to get our IO. For one thing, your 3bet/call line looks a lot like JJ-QQ. And he could have AK, but not often enough to justify light calldowns. Bet/folding low flops is probably no good either. Basically, if you think V's range is strong, just fold. If you think he's messing around with hands like 66 or A7s then call, but it's going to be very hard to win this pot.

Why exactly did you choose $75 as your 3bet size?

I generally raise 3-4x +1 per caller (4x if OOP) as my default when readless.

Admittedly, I did not consider the prospects of playing a 4! pot OOP nearly 400 BB's deep which may be the major mistake and takeaway from the hand.

Would you have 3! JJ OOP this deep or just chosen to play a 40+ SPR pot with relative position and just avoid this high variance spot altogether?

2k deep , $125 to call

I call.
C/c non ace flops.
C/f turn.

Call and set mine. Call>fold> 5 bet>

Totally gross spot readless.

Calling for pure setmine requires him to shovel 400bbs in the middle with a single pair hand IP a mentionable percentage of the time. But if he's *not* stacking off with those single pair hands, then can we flat here with 64s type hands and x/r/bomb good boards? If he gets suspicious of JJ/QQ sets, then can we x/r/bomb Q-high boards and rep the other set? All of those options obviously sound like pure spew, which I guess means we can eye up his full 400bb stack in our IO calcs?

Also, is it at all possible he has air here, which cuts into our setmine odds? Should we x/c 1 street on non-A/K boards and try to get to showdown, folding to any further action?

Sorry, I got no answers for ya here. I think all of fold, call for pure setmine, and call with the idea of x/c'ing one street all have their merit. Call pre, x/c good flops is the hardest one to exploit, but it also relies on the least likely assumption (that he has anything other than premiums here).

I think so long as you pick one of those three options and understand why you're picking that option, you're probably doing as well as anyone else is in this spot.

Honestly the answer depends on what I think of the other two players. It is not an auto-3bet. However, if I did 3bet, I would probably 3bet smaller.

This spot reminds me of another one (the one where you burned $1k by check/raise bluffing a pair on the river) where you are SO deep that preflop hand strength isn't really that big a deal because of how much could still happen in the hand. What matters is that if you 3bet and isolate the button, the deep stacks alone could put you in a very bad spot, whether he 4bets or just calls. That doesn't necessarily mean I wouldn't 3bet, but as others have said...reads are important.

Is there a reason in your mind for your formulaic sizing?

@surviva - I think if he has air here, it's probably AK air which is not the worst spot to be in IP. You bring up some good points and alternative ways of thinking, which I agree would likely be looked down upon as spewy if I posted I 3!/called a 4! with 64s and c/r a favorable flop. But being deep stacked, we can put villain in a tough position as well. It's just a shame I don't have a playbook of previous HH's and 3! pots with this guy.

@Vernon - I may not be as formulaic as I implied. I think a lot of it has to do with the initial sizing as well. For example, if he opened to $25 OTB and the SB called $25, I may elect to just raise to a flat $100 (3x + 1) whereas when he opens for $15 I go a little bigger $75 (4x + 1). I don't have an exact method, but now that I am thinking about it I think it has more to do with the initial bet size.

Anyways,

Hero calls $200

Flop ($410): 6 8 6

Hero checks
Villain bets $300
Hero?

So I was hoping to check/call a favorable flop if villain complied with his bet sizing. But this sizing is bigger than I wanted to see - I was hoping for $200. Now villain doesn't know I am getting ready to rack up and leave and protect a win -- so if he is betting $300 here with AK would you guys think that is spewy as most in my spot wouldn't fold JJ? Short of hitting a set I think this is about as good of a flop as I can expect but damn that bet sizing looks like playing for stacks.

Calling would create a pot of $1000 with $1400 behind.