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2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? 2/5 NL Horrible value bluff?

07-17-2011 , 05:03 PM
This is partly passive game with a new player that has been at the table for maybe two orbits. He has about $850 and the button.

I have $1900 and limp UTG with A7. It folds around to him and he makes it $20. All fold except me. Villain seems like a good player, but without much history his range is wide here. I figure he's doing this with small pp's, suited connectors and one gappers, suited Jx-Ax, and maybe JTo-AJo.

pot:$47

Flop:

K65

We both check.

Turn:

5

I lead for $35 since I have a flush draw and might take it down here.

He makes it $65 more. I doubt he flopped a set, nor does he have a 5 or K in his hand. He could be on a flush draw also, but given I have the A he would have to be on the Q or J high draw. Heart flushes could be in his range, but I feel he would've c-bet the flop.

pot: $247

river: K

I think this is a great bluff card. If he had a 5 or even pocket 6's he's now counterfeit. I make it $125. Thoughts?
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-17-2011 , 05:31 PM
when villain raises turn
range is limited to {bluffs, Kx, boats, and 5x}

if that is his range then river is a horrible bet
all hands that beat you will call/raise
all hands that you beat will fold anyway and might even possibly raise you off the best hand
river is easy check/fold unless you have good enough reads that turn raise was a bluff

c/c if you put him on a bluff
however if the turn raise was read as a bluff you should've came over the top on the turn
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-17-2011 , 05:35 PM
I would have folded ott. I dont chase straight or flush draws on paired boards against aggression. Otr, nobody likes folding boats and he probably has one. You dont make money at this level forcing people to make big folds. This is burning money imo
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-17-2011 , 05:37 PM
He can have kxh or 5x don't know if he's folding a 5 here
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-17-2011 , 06:08 PM
His line doesn't rep many hands, since most people don't slowplay this board otf. But its not impossible. So, I'd say it tilts his range to a lot of semibluff hands ott and 5x. I suppose KK is also possible here.

On the river, his semibluff hands have all missed so it doesn't matter what u bet vs them. Kk is obv raising. So, u have to decide if u can take him off a 5x hand otr. Some players will just not found here, some will. U don't have many reads on this player yet so if I were to try this bluff I would bet more, maybe 190. 125 is small enough for him to make a stubbornness call with 5x.
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-17-2011 , 06:14 PM
He can easily have Kx. A small turn raise IP is a common showdown plays that good TAGs use on wettish boards on the turn. The point is to elicit a check from their oop opponents otr so that they can check behind. This is frequently better than calling turn and river, as it allows the IP player to put in less money on the turn than would go in if they let the OOP player bet both streets.

I think your lead-bluff here on the river is not a good play. The only hands you bluff out are the ones that are already worse than yours.
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-17-2011 , 06:15 PM
I think he snap calls you with any K, 5, A or PP bigger than 5. You also fold all hands that you beat and take away the chance for him to bluff at you.

If you don't want to bluff catch maybe make a blocker bet so he doesn't bluff you off the hand. But I think you're just folding a hand you beat here most the times.
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-17-2011 , 07:27 PM
I think it's a pretty bad card to bluff, but honestly wonder if there are any good cards for a bluff anyways... But that sizing is literally never getting folds unless you have the best hand IMO.
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-17-2011 , 09:06 PM
Ya look for a better spot your OOP which is tough. I don't think he has a king because he would bet it on wet flop like this. When he raise you on turn its for value he has 54s/65s/A5s/5x which is totally possible because these hands are in his opening range in LP/CO/BTN. Either fold turn, call raise on turn hope for a diamond. If you want to bluff K on river you have to bet the flop IMO.
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-17-2011 , 11:52 PM
Am I the only one who folds hands like A7s preflop when in early position? Seems like all it really ever does is miss completely or get me in trouble....

Lee
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-18-2011 , 12:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lovesantiques
Am I the only one who folds hands like A7s preflop when in early position? Seems like all it really ever does is miss completely or get me in trouble....

Lee
I'm sure he's rationalizing that he's about 400BB's deep and he's looking to play. He also did mention it was a fairly passive game, but he limped instead of raised. Seems like a weak play here TBQH.
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-18-2011 , 01:03 AM
No if im deep I might play suited aces ep, but limping I don't think so
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-18-2011 , 01:06 AM
Fold pre easily. We do not have even close to the proper environment for this hand.

Check turn. Villain’s flop check is suspect and I expect a call or raise about 95% here.

K on river is about the worst bluff card in the deck. Not knowing this a large lack of knowledge about barreling and bluffing. (I say that for you to pay particular attention to this area in your study)

We can gain lots of respect by not tending to stab and win every pot at ever opportunity. IMO the villain did not check flop with intention of folding turn. Thus, stabbing has no value almost at all.
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-18-2011 , 01:08 AM
I might fold pre unless there is someone in the lineup i really want to play with. He really can't fold anything on the end. Calling OTT is meh. I'm checking OTR and hope he bets <$75.
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote
07-18-2011 , 01:14 AM
If you think the villian is good...a check on a Kxx flop screams he has a K. Everyone would cbet that flop and rep AK when they have actually missed.
2/5 NL Horrible value bluff? Quote

      
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