Quote:
Originally Posted by absherrj
Home game tip... playing 2-5 nl holdem the following situation arose.
Villian is he is a solid player that switches up his game. He takes both aggressive and passive lines to try and keep you guessing as he can also throw in bluffs. Capable of calling off light. He has 420 to start the hand. Hero covers.
villian limps utg+2, 2 limps, sb completes, hero has As7s in bb and checks.
flop: Ac 8s 5s
sb checks, hero bets 20, a villian makes it 80, folds around to hero...
I know that I am out of position for one so for that reason I like a raise. But do I really want to get stacks in here against his calling range? Given stack sizes he now only has 330ish left and if i call the pot is 185. I've made the mistake of overbetting all in before and it makes my hand look too draw oriented. What sizing do you like here?
Here is my range for a solid, thinking opponent who limps ep and raises this board when a player in the blinds leads out. It is wide because he mixes up his game, and is in position facing a bet that is usually never 2p+ at these stakes:
Board: 8
5
A
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****49.45%**48.57%***0.87%*{ As7s }
MP3****50.55%**49.68%***0.87%*{ AA, 88, 55, AQs+, A8s, A5s, KsQs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, AQo+ }
If we assume he dumps everything worse than 2p+ vs a 3bet less than all-in, our situation changes to this:
Board: 8
5
A
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****36.10%**35.18%***0.92%*{ As7s }
CO*****63.90%**62.98%***0.92%*{ AA, 88, 55, A8s, A5s }
If he will dump A5 to a shove, here is his get-it-in range:
Board: 8
5
A
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****32.58%**32.36%***0.22%*{ As7s }
SB*****67.42%**67.19%***0.22%*{ AA, 88, 55, A8s }
The pot going into the flop is $25. Your $20 bet plus his $80 with $335 behind gives you a $460 potential win for $335 risk with a shove. So you need 42.13% equity to get it in profitably.
It looks like a shove here is bad, especially since you say it will turn your hand face-up as a draw.
If you 3bet small, say to $150, you are offering him 70:185 or close to 2.5:1 direct odds. This may be good enough to keep his dominated draws in, hoping they can extract more than $100 from you on a spade turn. It should also keep A5 in the hand, and you have pretty good equity against that hand.
If he flats all of his value hands, plus 1 combo of a flush draw, this changes the situation to:
Board: 8
5
A
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****41.22%**40.38%***0.84%*{ As7s }
BB*****58.78%**57.94%***0.84%*{ AA, 88, 55, A8s, A5s, KsQs }
What if he ships over our small 3bet? The pot would be $25+$80+$150=$255 with $335 behind, total of $590. You need better than 36.21% equity to call. If he shoves all 2p+ hands, the play is roughly neutral EV. If he ever bluff shoves a flush draw, the play is solidly +EV.
You could price yourself in with a bigger 3bet, $200 for instance, but I wouldn't do this myself.
If he flats the small 3bet, we can easily shove for value on a spade turn, since he will be hard-pressed to fold a set getting better than 2.5:1. We may even be able to semi-bluff shove any high, non-pairing turn for value, expecting folds from 2pair hands.
In summary, a shove is bad against his get-it-in range, but you might be able to steal the pot from AK,AQ,A5. A small 3-bet is good if he will flat ip frequently, fearing you have a hand like 88,55 yourself. A small 3bet is also good if it will induce a spazz from his flush draws, or get you to the river cheaply.
We need to know how he responds to a small 3bet.