When most LLSNLers bet like Villain did on the river, then, yes, I would say that the bottom of our range is perceived as a set.

I'm not disagreeing about what we should bet on the flop and turn. My point is about what we appear to hold.

You may not have said it, but that's how the thread is playing out. It's silly to think that he can't have anything but a tiny suited spade hand range, but can have a wide missed diamond draw one.

He's not reaping an extremely narrow range, there are a decent number of flush combos that beat us, as well as AT, and we tie T9. The extremely narrow range is the one that we beat that someone would send in $965 on one street with. People do not bluff shove anywhere nea often enough to make a call profitable, and he's not doing it for value with a worse hand.

Calling here really is pretty bad and is nothing but an example of not feeling like folding a straight and using the lol-all-live-players-are-the-suck line of thinking to justify a call.

As God as my witness, I was looking to advocate fold immediately after reading the OP. It really is fairly obvious that this is KsXs a ton of the time. Besides, this is the Live Low Stakes Forum, people don't need to give results for us to know that they lost the hand, it's the case in about 95% of posts.

Yeah, I posted the results too early but I thought the thread was already dead and going to page 2 anyway.

I didn't think a set was in his range because he would most likely raise PF. By the river, there are probably as many 2 pair hands as well as flushes in villain's range. It would be hard for villain to put me on a flush so I thought he might be trying to get value for his 2 pair hands, fearing that I might check TP behind. I also thought that there might be a small chance that he is turning a missed FD/SD into a bluff.

Sure

We are up against an EXPERIENCED Vegas LAG that seems competent. And the flop contains a diamond flush draw.

So the question is, what hands can this LAG weather OP's storm of betting and then shove river? OP bet strong on every street so its extremely doubtful that V is going to float this flop with something like 76ss "hoping" for a backdoor FD. But hands like JTss, KTss, ATss, KJss, and T9ss could easily weather the storm of betting and shove river when the backdoor hits.

But there are other hands in V's range that he could have that weather this storm. Diamond draws (especially something like QT) pair plus OESD combos, and two pair combos.

Now, lets assume V has one of the above non-spade made hands or busted draws. What would this V do?

Most V's would either surrender, blocking bet, or hope for a check through to get to showdown.

However, this V is a Vegas reg and competent LAG and imo would have no problem turning a made hand or missed draw into a bluff hoping to rep the backdoor flush (especially something that missed like QT). Unfortunately, he'd also do this with the backdoor

And imo that is what would make me pay him off. I feel that against this type of villain, he bluff shoves in this spot "enough" for a call to be profitable. I'm not afraid of the AT because I think AT raises on turn 100%. So, imo this shove is polarized, we are either up against a backdoor flush (one of the combos I listed above, so we can eliminate most flush combos like A4ss or 76ss), a busted diamond draw, or a busted pair + OESD.

Again, against most ABC and TAG V's we have an easy fold on this river. But against a crafty LAG, I think its a crying call

That's one hell of an extrapolation from the OP's description of this villain. Given the description I don't beleive there is enough indication of this being an "crafty lag" All we know is that he is a reg, limp calls alot and has semibluffed and stacked off with a gutshot/flushdraw on a flop. That sounds like alot of standard players to me, not some crafty tom dwanesque lag owning the game. Unless there is some significant history between hero and villain or hero has observed him make such a move in similar spots the safe assumption is rather that he is not capable of such a move and the percent liklihood that he has it is far greater than that he doesn't. Pot is laying roughly 2-1 I don't think you are good 1/3 times to justify calling here.

I may be coloring OP's descriptions with my own bias. I try to do the most with the limited info we get.

I will 100% agree, that if this V isn't that crafty or good of a LAG that this is an easy fold. In fact, the only reason I take the call line is in direct proportion to how "crafty" I think this V is. And you are right, we do need more evidence to definitive state this V is aggro/crafty enough to bluff shove a missed diamond draw or OESD for stacks.

To be clear to anyone reading, I will easily concede that againt the typical LLSNL player or even most LLSNL players, this is a super easy fold on river.

really DGI? It's just more than a PSB, so we need to call 965 to win 1885. We're getting just less than 2 to 1.

you really think that a tricky Vegas 5/5 villain is making this bet with a bluff more than they're making it with a made hand that often here?

snap super fistpump megacall. he may have AT or some random flush that gets there, but if i were to guess, id guess you are ahead of his range.

if the guy called 2 PSBs with a backdoor, more power to him.

I need to preface this post with this disclaimer: I'm discussing really good "LAGs", and I don't mean to use the label "good" lightly, i'm talking top 5 - 10%.

One of the most potent weapons in a good LAG's playbook is the fact that they shove for BIG money whenever the board gets super scary.

They count on the fact that most players are not going to call 100bb+ shoves on the river unless they have the stone cold nuts.

This goes double for if you come off as a typical ABC tight player that has been making "good laydowns".

So they overbet shove a lot on scary rivers vs ABC players and then when the ABC player folds the LAG will say "Damn, good fold, thought you were going to pay me off" and of course he mucks.

Unfortunately, occasionally, the LAG will hit the nuts on the river and that sucks because a really good LAG is going to get paid off by me a fair bit because i've learned its not profitable to fold against them "just" because they bet big.

In effect, there is almost a direct relationship between how good a LAG is and his tendency to overbet shove vs ABC players on scary boards.

I agree with this. And it may be a PSB, but it's a 200 BB bet, which is an absolutely massive bet.

I mean, consider, Hero basically has the second nuts here, and is considering folding them because he is afraid that villan has been slowplaying AT for 2 streets on a wet board (which makes NO sense) or somehow got there with a backdoor flush draw.

I bet villan has either Ax (with a pair) or a two pair he was trying to fill up.

IF Villan has a flush, he had AsJs, which I think he check/ships on the river.

edit: also, I dont think villan is a good LAG. I think Villan makes money, and makes his money off his red line (aka money won without showdown). But that's what makes me think he is bluffing here. I think a bad LAG is shoving this river with a missed draw. I would not take this line with any hand I can think of except for MAYBE AsJs (I call flop with pair + SD, call turn with FD+SD, ship river with flush). I would raise flop with 2 pair or a straight, maybe call with a FD, but I wouldnt turn it into a river bluff.

it isnt that a river bluff is completely awful on a LAGs part, it's that there are very few cards that hit the river that would scare you, so I wouldnt be calling the turn.

I'm not copy and pasting an entire reply just to say what's obvious, there's zero chance that anyone is shoving air here often enough to make a call justifiable. To say that there's a 15% shot he has total air would be extremely generous. Advocating calling it off because someone is described as "an experienced Vegas reg" really is silly. How often do you see people stick in close to 2 buy-ins as a bluff on one street versus the aggressor in the hand? This is a backdoor flush almost every time.

This is why this forum honestly sucks and serves mostly as a time killer, not a game-improver. People don't call on the backdoor, they call with big hands on the flop that happen to be suited, pickup draws on the turn, and then get there, like the hand the Villain actually had.

The idea that this is a snap call is comical. I can guarantee that if you spend a lot of time calling $960 on the river in 2/5 on this board without a flush, you're burning money. People simply do not do this with air often enough to justify calling 2 buy ins. I doubt anyone here could name even a handful of times in their life that they've seen someone send it in for this amount in this fashion on a bluff.

If you routinely fold to aggro villains in these sorts of spots than how would you know what percentage of the time they are bluffing? Serious question no snark?

And its not "silly", its serious. Part of the purpose of these forums imo is identifying any and all edges and an aggro crafty villain can and will shove in this spot for big money. Since I make these calls against said villains I feel I have a better perspective than someone who never makes these calls.

Or let me put it another way with a serious question for you.

Lets say Villain is aggro and has no problem making moves. In this spot, lets say V has QT . Are you going to tell me that this V is NEVER bluffing this river???

The fact that you think this is such an easy insta fold "no matter what" is exactly how these types of aggros make tons of money. Because "obviously" he must have the nuts or near nuts because no one is ever shoving here enough to make it profitable. And that is just not true.

If V is aggro, well rolled, has no problem making moves, and Hero is an "ABC" villain then you can bet in this spot V is shoving just like this. Pot is $965 ish and there is a pot sized bet left, if V shoves he only needs Hero to fold 33% ish of the time to be profitable which according to your post is EASILY the case.

Again, to be clear, i'm not talking about most players. I've been very clear and consistent in my logic classifying the types of players that would/could do this. And to be honest, if you don't make these calls against these players then how do you know?

I find that winning internet players who make the transition to live play also have it in them to make this sorta move on this river...

In any event, my last post on the matter. I've outlined my logic and if you don't see it, then there is nothing more I can say and we will agree to disagree.

I think it's total nonsense to think someone is sticking in $965 on the river against the aggressor with an air hand a big enough percentage of the time to make calling profitable. That's really the only thing that needs to be said, it's basically unassailable to be honest. This literally has to be KsXs, AsTs, or Ts9s like 85, 90% of the time.

I love how the entire thought process on the hand changes just because the person is described as being "a Vegas reg" as if this makes it automatic that he's bluff shoving two buy-ins here some decent percentage of the time.

I actually just looked back at the OP to make sure of the wording in the Villain description, and LOL'ed in real life. We know Villain is a Vegas reg because Hero goes there "at least twice a year" and he's "seen him before".

Boy, that's all the evidence I need to know that Villian bricked a diamond draw here.

I'm chiming in because, FWIW I always respect your posts (including what you have laid out itt)...I also always take the time to read what DG has written, because he clearly and purposefully discusses his logic for his proposed actions.
I believe a cookie-cutter (universal) line/advice doesn't help the forum learn from some nuances and dynamics that MAY exist in a particular situation.
I think we can all agree with a couple of key points:

1) Villain is competent and has been seen to play his draws aggressively

2) hero's hand is underrepped (Let's forget, for a moment, the meager relative strength of hero's hand to a river shove). Villain can put hero on a range of hands that may not include T9, i.e. KK, QQ, JJ, AdQd, maybe AdAx or AdKx

Now, focusing on point 2: Villain realizes hero is probably going to check back river with the majority of his range, given the board runout and villain's ch/calling two streets. Therefore, if villain was planning to bluff, he can't rely on ch/raising the river since hero may well check back or any river bet by hero commits him to the hand. THEREFORE, if villain was bluffing the river, an open shove would be the only course of action.

I think narrowing villain's range on river to just four hands, i.e. Ts9s, KsJs, AsTs, KsTs can be tainted as a result of villain's strong action (shoving river.) In other words, if villain led for $400 on river, is this still a snap fold situation??
Isn't it logical to include some busted diamond draws in villain's range?

A good competent LAG (whether Vegas regular or not) can take a ch/call ch/call shove line with a busted draw. Take a look at HAND 1 in this thread:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19...-limon-880912/

Dynamics are a bit different: Limon is the PFR, Limon ch/raises turn. Cliffs: Limon shoves river as a total bluff and gets looked up

the point is, it CAN happen...The action exhibited from villain and his characteristics exhibited by prior hands/reads SHOULD at the very least merit some considerations for hero and not be a snap fold

Easy fold for the reasons stated by other posters.