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2/5 NL, flopped set, led into big on river 2/5 NL, flopped set, led into big on river

01-28-2017 , 05:05 AM
First post, so please excuse if format is a bit wonky.

Hero: 1100
Villain: 1300

Villain is middle aged Asian man. He hasn't played many hands but he does make the occasional move.

Playing 6 handed, UTG straddles, folded to hero on button with 6s6c. Hero makes it 30, Villain in small blind and UTG call.

Flop is Qs, 6d, 3s. Checks to Hero. Hero bets 80. Villain tanks awhile and calls,UTG calls somewhat quickly.

Turn is 8h. Hero bets 300. Villain calls a bit quicker this time. UTG folds.

River is 7c. Villain quickly jams. Hero??
2/5 NL, flopped set, led into big on river Quote
01-28-2017 , 05:21 AM
Raise pre-flop is too small. Tip on posting hands, post the size of the pot on each street.

Basically you potted the **** out of this pot and you got action. Nice.

River comes down to if he has Q8s/33 in his range or not. If he doesn't you have to fold. Then you have to start to think about if he has 88 in his range. It's simply a ranging problem. Would he ever turn an Ace high flush draw into a bluff? Making the occasional move only tells so much, give us hands.

I think you need to think back on the tanking on the flop and what it means from your Villain. Does he tank top pair on flop? Or is he tanking a draw? Is he ever tanking a set? Does he ever get to river with a set that does not raise?

If he has no Q8s but has 33 on this river. Would he open ship? Would he never raise turn? Would he float 88 on flop and be tanking that?


Looks like a fold. But could easily be a call. I don't know what he's bluffing here, but you need to provide those hand histories if you want a more reasonable decision.

you're probably anywhere from 15% - 36% and you need 30% so figure it out.

Last edited by Dochrohan; 01-28-2017 at 05:27 AM.
2/5 NL, flopped set, led into big on river Quote
01-28-2017 , 06:54 AM
So, 88 is the only value hand i can safely put him on. if he had QQ/45/77, pretty sick. other than that... maybe Q8, 33 as stated above, and the only other thing i can think is 8s7s, or Ts9s (which would also be pretty sick).

i have a tough time folding to a bet where i can only think of one reasonable hand that beats me, and the flop flush draw missed which could mean this is a bluff, so almost 100% id be calling here, but on the forums outside the heat of battle, with time to think, id lean towards a fold. I would guess fold and call both are probably somewhat close in equity so not a major error whatever you decided.
2/5 NL, flopped set, led into big on river Quote
01-28-2017 , 07:01 AM
67s & 59s is another hand, but again, its murky waters.
2/5 NL, flopped set, led into big on river Quote
01-28-2017 , 04:28 PM
Hero calls.

Villain mucks.

Hero wins pot.
2/5 NL, flopped set, led into big on river Quote
01-28-2017 , 04:31 PM
Make them show
2/5 NL, flopped set, led into big on river Quote
01-28-2017 , 04:39 PM
Very weird line by villain.

I feel like we need to call here. Because of having the button and initiative our range is pretty wide to villains IMO, one pair hands like AA or KK as well as AQ or even KQ. In reality we are at the top of our range and I feel we need to call here. If the river made villains hand with a straight draw + flush draw combo then we need to make a note to value bet the well out of this villain in the future. Turn bet is near pot and he still calls so I'm curious to know results.
2/5 NL, flopped set, led into big on river Quote
01-28-2017 , 08:36 PM
Lol so I typed a detailed reply but got an error message. I'll try to be succinct. Thanks for the responses so far everyone.

• This was a relatively standard weakish live 2/5 lineup with lots of preflop limping. I had been the most aggressive player preflop by a wide margin and I was also the youngest, so I figured my image was that of a reckless young kid just pressing buttons.

• Someone asked about specific hands where villain made moves, only one that jumps out at me was where I had earlier stacked him with a straight on the turn of a AKQJ board with a flush draw. He instamucked on the river so I don't know that he even had a combo draw.

On the flop I put him on a flush draw. I thought potentially he was in the tank because he was wondering if a raise could get both me and UTG to fold. I put UTG on a middle pocket pair or marginal queen.

On the turn when V calls more quickly I put him on a combo draw, maybe As8s, or potentially Q8. Both definitely in his range.

Now result and final thoughts:

Spoiler:
When he jammed on river, I instantly thought, "ok 45, must fold." I started talking--"wow, 45, really? How lucky can you get? 45 of spades I guess?" No reaction but seemed fairly confident.

QQ never happens I think because he would almost always reraise preflop. 88 possible. 33 unlikely but possible. 9s10s unlikely but possible. Q8 and maybe 7s8s possible. I think missed flush draws and As8s that he turned into a bluff are also possible.

In the end, I figured that 66 was too close to the top of my range and called. He paused, for a good 8 seconds before slowly turning over 4s5s while giggling like a Japanese schoolgirl. I pushed the chips his way and made a beeline for the exit, secure in the knowledge that I really suck at poker lol
2/5 NL, flopped set, led into big on river Quote

      
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