This is my first post regarding hand strategy: so be kind

Horseshoe Cleveland 2/5, most games here contain two or three LAGs, a couple of nits and 2 or 3 TAGs. this one is no different. My feeling regarding this room is, if you play pretty straight forward without getting too fancy you can consistently make money. There are some young aggressive guys who are doing it for their income. Some old retirees and some guys like myself that go and play basically to relax and enjoy the game. I play there about 10 to 15 hours a week and have done all right since it opened in May 2012.
This session is on Friday, late afternoon, into evening and the games are definitely better on the weekends

Hero BB (>800): Seat 8: I'm middle aged and I think my image is that of a nit. I've been at the table about 3 hours and have built up a decent stack on mostly just betting my quality hands, I have raised preflop, c-bet when I hit or when the board is to my liking. I really have not had too many hands go to show downs usually taking it down prior. I have thrown in an occassional 3-bet and I guess my image at this point is strong. I'm one of the bigger stacks at the table.
Villian (> 700, I have him covered) Seat 5: 40ish, loose passive, plays almost every hand. He joined the table about 2 hours ago. He was in seat 3 and has made a seat change in the past hour and has played more than 70% of the hands dealt. He has gotten a little lucky hitting trips on two or three occassions when holding less than premium starting hands. I don't remember playing with him previously.

Hero dealt 9s,9c in BB, one other limper (not really relevant), and villian call $5, SB folds, Hero raises to $15. both limpers call.

Pot ($ 42) $4 rake plus $1 for Bad beat
Flop Js,8d,9d
Hero Bets $60, Limper Folds , Villian ponders 10 or 15 seconds and then calls

At this point I put villian's range on ATC, but leaning to a Straight or Flush draw. I know pretty wide open but based on his play, kind of hard to narrow his range

Pot($141) rake 2 more Dollars
Turn 3s

Hero?

Ok, So I see I already have screwed up, by not having this thread in the right forum (Live Low-Stakes NL)

I apologize for the error

I'll move it.

thank you

Hint: bet. You have a hand. Don't get cute. He can call with so much worse, much of his range is draws that will pay you off but can catch you if you give them a free card. Etc. This is super standard.

You have described a pretty fishy villain. Has bet size impacted his willingness to chase? If yes, I'm going like 3/4 of pot. If no, this is a strong spot to overbet. He already called 1.5x pot on the flop, so I'd opt for at least $150.

The board is super wet and should have hit your villain's calling range pretty hard.

V should have all kinds of hands we can extract value from, pair + OESD, two pair combos, pair + FD, FDs,

there are only two combos of straights so against the total range of hands V can continue with, we are ahead.

Pot the turn...

bet big. as of now you are committed against this opponent and should be trying to get as much money is as possible.

probably 3b a bit larger or i just limp as well since you are just bloating the pot oop with what looks like some loose stations.

When you raise from the big blind with a strong but vulnerable hand like nines, you really want to take the pot down now, not build one with a pot-sweetener raise like you made. You should raise to $25 or so preflop.

Now bet $120 on the turn.

a pot sweetener bet when we are setmining deep isn't terrible.

Also, there are only 2 other villains and since we are deep raising to take down $10 in dead money with 99 isn't the best use of our 99. Better to juice the pot and set mine.

Not to say a $25 preflop raise is bad either... just saying that the $15 raise is fine.

Like Koko, I prefer either checking here or a slightly larger raise. As played, his stack has about 4 pot sized bets left so I am betting somewhere between 3/4 pot and full pot. If he moves all in it is an insta-call. I probably shove the river unless something super scary comes on the river (like the 10d, for instance).

Hero bets $160

Villian tanks for about 30 seconds announces raise to $350 straight.

Hero?

You underbet preflop, and you overbet the flop and turn. I feel like you have a major bet sizing tell. Unless you're overbetting with everything and that's not a good strategy either. Have you bet hands like this previously?

Tough spot. Let's run some ranges through Pokerstove.

I think villain's range is pretty narrow here. I threw in a couple of flush draws for balance in case he's spazzing out but I really don't think this is a diamond draw.

Board: Js 8d 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.171% 53.33% 00.85% 14254 226.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 45.829% 44.98% 00.85% 12024 226.00 { 88, AdJd, AdTd, QTs, JdTd, J9s-J8s, QTo, J9o }

Even against a super narrow range of two pairs and straights and bottom set, you still have good equity:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

22,770 games 0.000 secs 4,554,000 games/sec

Board: Js 8d 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.145% 49.37% 00.77% 11242 176.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 49.855% 49.08% 00.77% 11176 176.00 { 88, QTs, JdTd, J9s, QTo, J9o }

Call. Hope the board pairs. I don't hate shoving here either.

This is very rarely a bluff with the sizing villain has chosen.
I think deciding what to do from now is very villain dependant.
A bigger set is not possible due to his pf limp, more likely he would raise sets otf not the turn, if he can possibly limp a pp pre then i guess its possible but highly unlikely (I would dismiss sets entirely due to how unlikely they are).
Is he the sort of player who is willing to go to war on this turn with j8, j9, 89? Or is this always q10 because imo i cant see how this is a bluff or a semi bluff.

Your preflop raise size isn't enough, you need to raise a size that has a little fold equity.

I don't like your bet sizing on the flop because you are deep and won't be playing for stacks against hands that you beat. (Except a set of 8s.)

I don't like that people are betting based off getting stacks in, if your opponent is passive as stated he isn't going to be stacking off with 1 or 2 pair.

Preflop i raise more (25 or 30), as played the flop bet should be big but not that big, maybe 3/4 to full pot, turn i bet 3/4 pot again, river all depends on the card and your opponent

Obviously betting here. What I'm thinking is how much to extract maximum value vs Villian. If you are not sure, bet 100-120$

If your read is accurate and this villain really is loose passive then this is a puke fold.

A true loose passive is never ever raising here without the nuts. If so, then your read is wrong.

If you are absolutely certain that your read is accurate and villain is "passive" we can make the tough fold here. Or put another way, we have ten outs and don't have the odds to proceed

Can't we add KJdd and QJdd? I wish villain wasn't loose PASSIVE but I have a hard time folding. I don't think calling accomplishes much as we can't really fold many rivers. I prob just get it in here

Just because he's generally passive doesn't mean he doesn't ever raise without the nuts. Super weak/tight players are like that, but there are plenty of loose/passive fish who will overvalue bottom set, 2 pair, or even TPTK in spots like this and spaz. Unless you've got a read on him not raising without the nuts, I think this is a call.

I agree that a passive live player is never, ever raising on the turn without a monster. Definitely never 1 pair, and definitely never a draw or pair+draw (I play a lot live at this level, loose-passive live players call all day long with these hands but they do not raise them for a big bet on the turn like this).

That being said, check the price again. We are getting about 5-1 in implied odds to call drawing for the board to pair, which with 10 outs is a bit less than 4-1 against getting there. I factored that on the villain having 700 to start the hand, OP says 700+ so the implied odds are a bit better. And I expect this guy to pay off his last 275 about 100% of the time if the board pairs with his straight, that's what loose-passive live fish do.

Koko - are there really zero combos of T7 in their range? We'll put J8 in but not T7?

I'm closer to dgi on this - if villain is a true loose passive I think his range is super nutted here. He didn't raise with JT.

Now, I think for pot odds + potential river payoff, I don't think it's as easy a fold as he does. I think it's a math problem. We're calling $190 more. We have 8 outs minimum here (he could have 88 or JJ). The pot is $460 so far and he has $275 behind (and we're getting it all in on the river almost guaranteed when the board pairs). Is it worth investing $190 to win $735 based on ranges? I think it we tighten the range to JJ, 88, and straights it's probably close. If we add anything else in it's a call.

Forgot about 10-7 lol. He almost never has JJ here. He limp-called the raise.

If we call here and brick the river what's the plan?

c/f by my read. This villain never bluffs.

While I expect to see qt here sometimes I think v shows up here with combo draw like ATs or some permutation

I'm never folding here based on how this hand as played

Reaults?

If your defintion of "passive" includes villains that raise w combo draws then I wonder what your aggro players do???

I was away from my computer. If we do have the odds (direct + implied) to call then we can make the crying call. Off the top of my head I didn't think we did...

Horrible preflop raise, it doesnt accomplish nothing in your position.
Raising better preflop avoids such a sick spot.
As played you have no choice but to see the river, and call river. Yuck!