Effective stacks $1625 (villain covers me).

Main villain is competent, straightforward, and seems to be at least a semi-pro. Mentioned to me that he made the 2.5-hour drive to the casino that night and was staying for 4 days. We've been playing for about 6-7 hours at this point and he's never gotten out of line and has 3-bet exactly once (with QQ).

Hero has a tight and solid image and has been running hot lately, stacking two villains in the past hour. Pretty much only one hand in 6 hours where I got out of line -- I had open-raised A3 from the CO, got 2 callers, a shortstack went all-in, and I re-popped to isolate.

Other villain is an unknown (just sat down).

This was one of those situations where I just *knew* villain had QQ+ (and probably KK+) and thought I could exploit that.

Preflop: HJ opens to $25, hero calls with 99, button calls, SB calls, villain (BB) re-pops to $125. HJ folds, hero calls after some thought, button folds, SB calls.

Flop: ($425): T86

SB checks, Villain bets $150, hero calls, SB folds.

Turn ($725): J

Villain bets $200. Hero raises to $750 ($600 behind).

Thoughts?

Your preflop call is really bad versus a competent player.

I think you're repping a set a lot with your line, although I wish the board weren't spade/spade.

Have you seen V be able to lay down a hand? That's a rather critical component of a bluff here.

Fold Preflop, you need deeper stacks to set mine. That's all you're really doing vs what is likely QQ+. Now you whiffed on the flop, and called for what? The gutshot? Floating for a turn bluff? Fold here too. I'd save your bluffing line for a weaker opponent.

Honestly, I like this assuming he can lay down a hand. If he is never folding an overpair this is spew of the worst kind, but for a thinking villain, this is a hella scary board and a hella strong line from you. This is gonna be a bit swingy as you don't get the option to do this that often.

I honestly would shove (or at least bet more here) here, because if he shoves, it's gonna be 600 to win 2275 or 1:3.7. You have ~22% equity against AA. If he does shove you have a hard decision on your hands. If you bet more or shove (depending on what you think he would think is less bluffy) you just make it a no brainer call if he does jam.

This is a really interesting spot. Very villain dependent.

One thing though... Fold pre for sure unless you're planning to run this kind of bluff on the right boards.

The fact that you think the turn bluff will work is exactly the reason you don't have the odds to call pre: the villain isn't stacking off indiscriminately with an overpair.

What is this "Semi-pro" thinking when he's betting so small on the flop & turn? He doesn't seem at all concerned with pricing out the flush draw does he? AK suddenly looks highly suspicious to me. In that case, your bluff is a great idea and will work a very high % of the time.

Question: Is he barrelling <1/2 pot both streets here OOP with an overpair?

If villain has AsKs/Qs, I don't think he's folding...

we're ahead of that...

semi pros dont bet cbet and barrel 1/3 pot in a 3-way pot

preflop you should fold after villain 3bets into a bunch of players and you still have 2 behind you

even if you do have plans to run a big bluff on the right board, you won't be able to do it if you have 3 others in the pot with you and villain

Misread the OP X-/

Yeah fold pre for sure if its not HU

Based on the way you played preflop, your hand looks like a PP, SC or AXs

PP:
If I was villain, I don't think you have a set here since you didn't raise flop...and because we are so deep you need to raise your sets on this flop to build the pot quickly to get stacks in by turn/river

Conclusion: 99 or JJ make the most sense

SC:
You flatted flop and raised turn...turn didn't complete any straights..it did increase the equity of hands like J9, JT or KQ...since flop is wet, the only SC that make sense are the 1 combo of JhTh as well as some spade ones, like KsQs or Js9s ( if villain has the As, these combos can vary a bit)
Since you would raise flop with Js9s, I would discount it here

Conclusion: KsQs, ThJh

AXss:
If villain doesn't have the As, then As9s makes the most sense, with possible AsJs as well and to lesser extent AsQs. But all of these combos need to be discounted because you would raise flop a good chunk of the time

Conclusion: As9s, AsJs

Overall conclusion: if I was villain, I would be most concerned with JhTh, which is just one combo or 3 combos of JJ...every other hand in your range looks like a combo draw and you are not repping sets or straights in my opinion

Villain should shove

so you really need reads on how he will react to your raise.