Can we never put him on QQ TT because it's such a small part of him range? Are we just excluding those hands??

We don't really need complex analysis here. We just have to ask the question "Is villain more likely to bet or to call a river bet from us?" I think he's more likely to bet because he's almost always betting Tx here, will be on the fence about value betting AQ, KK, AA, and might bluff since our hand looks so much like AQ. Hands that are snap folding are hands that were thinking about going for thin value and bluffs.

On a side note, a check/shove with AQ as a bluff would be pretty interesting some % of the time.

Those hands are in his range for sure but they only comprise 4 (one combo TT, and three combos of QQ) total combos, compared to >36 (I'm being lazy...) combos of AA, KK, A10, KJ, that can reasonably value bet the river. We don't want to put him on any one specific hand unless he shows it to us. We have to make our decision based on his entire river betting range.

Take into consideration that V is described as a mathematical/thinking player. He is going to be willing to value bet thin when he thinks you can call with worse. So he sees your c/c range on the river as being way wider than just full houses (maybe as wide as KQ or AQ). So yeah, he is assigning a range for you and trying to play optimally against it. You need to do the same.

^^^ who, in hero's shoes, would c/c the river with KQ? Or AQ? Or any equivalent hand values (what is equivalent is it's own discussion - like JT)?

Some dudes here are wondering if we should fold our flopped boat (we should not)... thing is, no one except for the worst stations would c/c 3 streets with AQ or similar with this action and run out.

How is check calling flop and turn losing the most we can???

I agree with your thinking... Even the SPOIL. Unfortunately there aren't too many games available in my area for these stakes. This was the only game I could get into that wasn't a limit game at a crappy casino

Okay, I'll bite. And again, I don't necessarily disagree with you here. But even if we exclude AA and KK from V's value range on the river, he is still no more likely to call our lead on the river since our value range is pretty nutted. So those over pairs are relatively inconsequential. So when we check and V checks back AA, we haven't missed any value because V is folding when we lead. I only included AA and KK because V is more likely to make a bet with these hands than he is to call a bet with these hands.

So let's say that AT is the thinnest value hand for V. There are still way more combos of AT and KJ than there are of QQ or TT. When we lead, we give AT and KJ the opportunity to make a correct fold. Sometimes they call, but not always, especially when our read on V is that he is skilled and likely reads hands pretty well. Not to mention that leading eliminates 100% of V's bluffs.

I don't know why we are thinking about folding the river here, if he jamed it, or if we bet and he raised, then yes folding is much easier.

of course there are hands out there that beat us, but if he turns up QQ here, you called a 3.6x pf raise with 99 heads up and OOP. That is the only problem I see in this whole hand (without any further info on V except that he is a solid player).

Just thinking from a game theory standpoint...

It's pretty exploitable if hero always check/folds AQ here. Conversely, always calling with AQ here is pretty exploitable too. Therefore, hero should consider calling with AQ some %, making villain consider value betting KK, AA some % of the time. Villain should be value betting JT here and it's not really close.

If hero wants to be really unexploitable here he should be check/calling AQ some %, check/folding AQ some %, and check/shoving some %.

disagree. i dont think V is value betting JT. hero can just be x/c w KJ and AT, also i think 99 is def in heros range and V should know that. V can only value bet QQ and TT imo. if he bets AA KK AQ its should be a bluff

I'm folding river to a pot sized bet

Fold river. He has QQ a lot

Calling seems like the only option.

LOL sick level bro!

FWIW, this is usually part of that bigger saying "We lose the most we can when we are behind, and win the least we can when we are ahead" Like most sayings that pertain to poker, it is only somewhat true. Of course we can lose less with this line than if we spazz out and check/shove anywhere in the hand while behind.

What the saying really means, though, is that by allowing V to set the price on every street (and we make some assumptions here, first that he bets more with his nutted hands, and second that he bets less with his non nutted hands) we end up paying to big a price when we are behind (or when he is at the top of his range), and V ends up paying too low a price when we are ahead (since he is setting the price, and this is the middle or lower part of his range).

Does this necessarily apply to this hand? I don't think so, personally. The read we were given was that of a TAG and mathematically sound player, and I'm not sure we can necessarily define his range better at any point in this hand, and the check/call line keeps it as wide as possible til the river.

The most interesting thing about this hand (and this may go back to what someone said about this game being too tough) is what the river bet says about how he perceives you. If you call and he flips over QQ, what do you think this says about how he perceives you as a player?

I don't follow. Are there people against whom he wouldn't take a 3b/b/b/b line here 400bb deep?

I can see only one play here, and that is CALL. He may be value betting thin or even bluffing but I don't think he's ever calling a river check/raise with worse.
We certainly can't fold to a river bet, our hand is too strong, and underrepped too.

P.S: LOL at people who are saying fold preflop. We are 2000 deep, folding a pair for 40 more would be insane. In fact this deep I would call a 3bet to 55 with my entire raising range.

P.S.S: OP I can't understand why are you playing in a game with 5 professionals, that's just awful game selection.

Call. There's no monsters under your bed, quit playing like there is

And yeah playing a $2/$5 game with 5 pros isn't smart. I mean I guess you can learn a lot, but you're also risking being taken to the paint for very large amounts and you're just 21 can't imagine you have a lot of dough

Call seems standard but expect to see TT QQ. is V good enough to turn AA KK AQ into a bluff?

I would be really surprised if this V (or almost any thinking V) checks AA or KK on this turn. AA and KK are squarely in his range until the river bet. Now I doubt he has them. I range his value range to QQ/A10s/J10s/109s/33/1010/random. I don't think he's calling a CRAI with anything we beat. A call is in order. A fold isn't terrible though.

The reason I lean call is that it's a 3-bet pot and we have the tippy-top of our c/c three streets range, so he has some random air in his range as well. I also would play it the same this deep.

If villain wouldn't bet turn and river with AA or KK, is he a TAG?

Not betting the river with AA and KK is so nitty that I would question him being a winning player if he doesn't.

I'd expect V as thinking TAG to bet river with AA/KK absolutely.

He bombed river, though. Almost a PSB. Can he seriously expect to get called by AQ here often enough with that sizing?

FWIW, if I'm V with AA/KK I play flop same, maybe a bit higher on turn (170-180), and then betting ~280 on river.

ETA: Frankly his sizing on turn makes me discount AA/KK somewhat.

I just asked that because OP said he doesn't think the dude would bet those hands.

But you think this supposedly professional player is giving away huge bet sizing tells on the turn that give away whether he has AA/KK or the nuts against another supposedly professional player? I don't buy it.

You know what I see being left out of these rangings of this player that should be in there? AK. How is he more likely to have made a weird, oversized 3bet pre with AT, JT or T9 than be 3 barreling AK here? After all, what is OP representing? QJ?