Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
Readless it's a pretty standard cBet. I'd go ~1/2 the pot, or in this case $25.
We can get value from JX (namely JT, J9), a few non believing PP's 77-TT, and some straight draws, AK, AT, KT, T9. In addition we don't want to give free looks to random cards to improve their equity against us.
Maybe. But I think it's pretty far fetched that we'll get value from pocket pairs below a J with two broadway cards showing.
I think I check, here's why:
- Not enough value: I'm not convinced we beat 50% of his calling range.
- Pot size: Even if we do beat 50% of his flop calling range (which I doubt), we won't beat 50% of his turn calling range, etc. We're never getting 3 streets, and probably never getting 2 streets, and I think even 1 street is in doubt. Given that, I hate to build the pot oop. So we bet and he calls... what now? The pot is larger, we're still oop, and we need to c/f the turn.
- Few scare cards: There are only two cards above the board (K and A), and we have one of them in our hand (A). It's possible V has some draw, but it's not likely at all, and so the turn card is not likely to change much about the status of the hand / significantly change equity positions. There's not much to "protect" against in regards to potential value.
- Villain tendencies: Great that villain is a loose/passive fish... but even then, I think 3 streets is going to be very difficult unless he's actually an unmitigated horrible calling station, which I don't see mentioned in the read. We can probably also rely on a loose/passive villain to play his hand pretty face up - checking flop behind with a weak hand/draw and betting with better.
So I like a check, and if villain is really loose/passive, probably just check/fold. If you must check/call one street, OK, but then check/fold turn. And if the flop checks through - and I expect it often will - value bet almost every turn and probably also the river for 2 streets of value against worse.