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/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? / NL: C-bet middle pair or not?

04-17-2014 , 05:53 AM
$500 eff. Hero has AJo in CO, folds around to Hero, Hero raises to $20, only button calls. V is an average loose passive fish.

Flop: QJ4r Pot ~ $50

Should we c-bet or not and why?
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 07:37 AM
Reads?

Almost impossible to give good advice without reads. I guess if I was blindfolded and it was the first hand I'd cbet since this missed many LLSNL player's calling range.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 07:42 AM
Readless it's a pretty standard cBet. I'd go ~1/2 the pot, or in this case $25.

We can get value from JX (namely JT, J9), a few non believing PP's 77-TT, and some straight draws, AK, AT, KT, T9. In addition we don't want to give free looks to random cards to improve their equity against us.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 07:49 AM
Way more arguments on why we c bet basically any board heads up here over not c betting.

This question could have been answered with very little research in the threads. Will probably get little to no traction.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 02:07 PM
Without reads, pot controling this flop is probably the best play long-term wise. Probably c/c flop and see what happens on the turn. If flop goes check/check, then I'm betting for value on most turns.

Against a player we have history with would be a little different (obviously depends on what kind of history and how he views you)...

There's merits to both plays, but you need more info on the guy to c-bet/barrel for value (against a fish is fine). Basically, it all comes down to history/reads/dynamics, like most situations in poker....
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 03:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
Readless it's a pretty standard cBet. I'd go ~1/2 the pot, or in this case $25.

We can get value from JX (namely JT, J9), a few non believing PP's 77-TT, and some straight draws, AK, AT, KT, T9. In addition we don't want to give free looks to random cards to improve their equity against us.
Maybe. But I think it's pretty far fetched that we'll get value from pocket pairs below a J with two broadway cards showing.

I think I check, here's why:

- Not enough value: I'm not convinced we beat 50% of his calling range.

- Pot size: Even if we do beat 50% of his flop calling range (which I doubt), we won't beat 50% of his turn calling range, etc. We're never getting 3 streets, and probably never getting 2 streets, and I think even 1 street is in doubt. Given that, I hate to build the pot oop. So we bet and he calls... what now? The pot is larger, we're still oop, and we need to c/f the turn.

- Few scare cards: There are only two cards above the board (K and A), and we have one of them in our hand (A). It's possible V has some draw, but it's not likely at all, and so the turn card is not likely to change much about the status of the hand / significantly change equity positions. There's not much to "protect" against in regards to potential value.

- Villain tendencies: Great that villain is a loose/passive fish... but even then, I think 3 streets is going to be very difficult unless he's actually an unmitigated horrible calling station, which I don't see mentioned in the read. We can probably also rely on a loose/passive villain to play his hand pretty face up - checking flop behind with a weak hand/draw and betting with better.

So I like a check, and if villain is really loose/passive, probably just check/fold. If you must check/call one street, OK, but then check/fold turn. And if the flop checks through - and I expect it often will - value bet almost every turn and probably also the river for 2 streets of value against worse.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 03:39 PM
What's your image? What's V's range and tendencies?
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 04:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
Maybe. But I think it's pretty far fetched that we'll get value from pocket pairs below a J with two broadway cards showing.

I think I check, here's why:

- Not enough value: I'm not convinced we beat 50% of his calling range.

- Pot size: Even if we do beat 50% of his flop calling range (which I doubt), we won't beat 50% of his turn calling range, etc. We're never getting 3 streets, and probably never getting 2 streets, and I think even 1 street is in doubt. Given that, I hate to build the pot oop. So we bet and he calls... what now? The pot is larger, we're still oop, and we need to c/f the turn.

- Few scare cards: There are only two cards above the board (K and A), and we have one of them in our hand (A). It's possible V has some draw, but it's not likely at all, and so the turn card is not likely to change much about the status of the hand / significantly change equity positions. There's not much to "protect" against in regards to potential value.

- Villain tendencies: Great that villain is a loose/passive fish... but even then, I think 3 streets is going to be very difficult unless he's actually an unmitigated horrible calling station, which I don't see mentioned in the read. We can probably also rely on a loose/passive villain to play his hand pretty face up - checking flop behind with a weak hand/draw and betting with better.

So I like a check, and if villain is really loose/passive, probably just check/fold. If you must check/call one street, OK, but then check/fold turn. And if the flop checks through - and I expect it often will - value bet almost every turn and probably also the river for 2 streets of value against worse.
Great points to think about here. A lot of the time I might auto-pilot c-bet in this spot, but I think Willy is right, we're not likely to get even 2 streets of value out of this hand, and V's continuing range to any reasonable bet will likely be ahead of ours.

I also like a check here, and agree with Willy on our plans for continuing.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 04:39 PM
Details about V would be great, tough to comment otherwise.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 04:47 PM
Think c-betting is best if villain is not likely to bluff with his equity. Loose passive people will call their whole stack off with a marginal hand, creating tons of passive dead money, but not much aggressive dead money. There is a ton of weaker pairs Villain will call the flop with and straight draws/gutshots. Imagine if loose/passive villain has K6s. Would we rather bet or check to manage the pot size? Def bet. Why? The average loose/passive villain is not likely to bet unless he spikes a K. Part of value betting is getting your opponent to call with a weaker hand or make them fold their equity share in the pot. Give villain 98s or T8s. Rather bet or check against these hands? Bet for the same reason. If you bet $20 for value, think it is very unlikely for villain to fold a gutshot. So much garbage your ahead of, I def wouldn't give villain a free card. If he calls the flop, and say the pots $80, you don 't have to just bomb the turn either. On a ton of turn cards, you could bet around $30-$40 to keep all his junk in. If villain ever raises, easy fold.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisBowling
Think c-betting is best if villain is not likely to bluff with his equity. Loose passive people will call their whole stack off with a marginal hand, creating tons of passive dead money, but not much aggressive dead money. There is a ton of weaker pairs Villain will call the flop with and straight draws/gutshots. Imagine if loose/passive villain has K6s. Would we rather bet or check to manage the pot size? Def bet. Why? The average loose/passive villain is not likely to bet unless he spikes a K. Part of value betting is getting your opponent to call with a weaker hand or make them fold their equity share in the pot. Give villain 98s or T8s. Rather bet or check against these hands? Bet for the same reason. If you bet $20 for value, think it is very unlikely for villain to fold a gutshot. So much garbage your ahead of, I def wouldn't give villain a free card. If he calls the flop, and say the pots $80, you don 't have to just bomb the turn either. On a ton of turn cards, you could bet around $30-$40 to keep all his junk in. If villain ever raises, easy fold.
This can work, too.

And yes, it depends a lot on this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterKim
Without reads, pot controling this flop is probably the best play long-term wise. Probably c/c flop and see what happens on the turn. If flop goes check/check, then I'm betting for value on most turns.

Against a player we have history with would be a little different (obviously depends on what kind of history and how he views you)...

There's merits to both plays, but you need more info on the guy to c-bet/barrel for value (against a fish is fine). Basically, it all comes down to history/reads/dynamics, like most situations in poker....
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 06:06 PM
c/c with the plan to play poker on later streets
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 08:23 PM
I like c/c on a rainbow board. Not too many draws to get value from, so I prefer to pot control. We have a better shot at getting value from midpairs later in the hand, and we'll get a bit from Jx either way.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-17-2014 , 08:43 PM
Check.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-18-2014 , 12:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
Maybe. But I think it's pretty far fetched that we'll get value from pocket pairs below a J with two broadway cards showing.

I think I check, here's why:

- Not enough value: I'm not convinced we beat 50% of his calling range.

- Pot size: Even if we do beat 50% of his flop calling range (which I doubt), we won't beat 50% of his turn calling range, etc. We're never getting 3 streets, and probably never getting 2 streets, and I think even 1 street is in doubt. Given that, I hate to build the pot oop. So we bet and he calls... what now? The pot is larger, we're still oop, and we need to c/f the turn.

- Few scare cards: There are only two cards above the board (K and A), and we have one of them in our hand (A). It's possible V has some draw, but it's not likely at all, and so the turn card is not likely to change much about the status of the hand / significantly change equity positions. There's not much to "protect" against in regards to potential value.

- Villain tendencies: Great that villain is a loose/passive fish... but even then, I think 3 streets is going to be very difficult unless he's actually an unmitigated horrible calling station, which I don't see mentioned in the read. We can probably also rely on a loose/passive villain to play his hand pretty face up - checking flop behind with a weak hand/draw and betting with better.

So I like a check, and if villain is really loose/passive, probably just check/fold. If you must check/call one street, OK, but then check/fold turn. And if the flop checks through - and I expect it often will - value bet almost every turn and probably also the river for 2 streets of value against worse.
I like a check too and you articulated the reasons better than I ever could. I'd like to add another (although minor) reason for check: c/c line allows us to see the turn while if we bet and V raises we have to fold and won't see turn.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-18-2014 , 02:08 AM
you should bet
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-18-2014 , 02:51 AM
Given limited info, I'm leading out 35-40, expecting to put those 10bb's in the middle in my stack allot of the time. As Venice alluded, this flop misses allot of V's range, and we have the best hand a good part of the time. Against multiple V's, I might play more passively, but I'm leaning into this guy, he's probably playing fit/fold.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-18-2014 , 08:58 AM
I'd check/delay C-bet OTT.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-18-2014 , 10:59 AM
Yes, C-bet, but not a huge amount.

If he's got Q, he'll call or raise.
If not, he'll probably fold.
I think this is called betting for info.

If you just check, and he bets,
you have no idea if he's got something, or just bluffing.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote
04-19-2014 , 02:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RickAversion
Yes, C-bet, but not a huge amount.

If he's got Q, he'll call or raise.
If not, he'll probably fold.
I think this is called betting for info.

If you just check, and he bets,
you have no idea if he's got something, or just bluffing.
Well, if we have a read on whether he's the kind of guy to steal postflop in position or not, then we will have a good idea. We're check calling here pretty much regardless though. With only one over OTF, it'd be bit too weak-tight not too, unless V is an insane nit who would never bet out with out a Q.
/ NL: C-bet middle pair or not? Quote

      
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