Villain here is a fish, and I am not using the term loosely. He will limp in with any two cards in any position, including 74o which was shown down for 7s up in an earlier hand. He is not exactly passive, though, and will raise good hands both pre and post-flop, but usually overvalues hands, as well.

Effective stack size is 650.

Hero has 75 in UTG+2. Villain is UTG.

Villain limps, Hero limps, 3 limpers after (SB folds)

FLOP: QJ3 (POT: $27)

Checks to hero, hero bets $20, random calls, villain calls.

TURN: 4 (POT: $87)

Villain checks, Hero bets $30, random calls, Villain raises to $85, Hero calls given the correct odds to do so with 12 perceived outs, random folds

RIVER: 4 (POT: $287)

Villain bets $200. Hero?

I hit one of my draws, but it also improves a set or a cheesy two pair to a boat. I obviously do not spaz here and raise, but can I even call?

Does villain bluff? How badly does he overvalue hands?

He has been seen turning hands like KJ on QQJ66 into bluffs by betting rivers, and I am not sure he realizes this despite the opponent's line being indicative of a queen. This should answer both questions.

I think you have to call this. Your bet on the turn which I assume is to give yourself odds for the flush and not intended to actually make anyone fold anything, gives the impression that you have a marginal hand (which you do). The raise could be anywhere from top two to AQ, and I think he would fire strong on the river with either of those hands. You are definitely going to run into A boat here some of the time, but its obvious that you don't have one, and he probably doesn't put you on a flush draw because you were betting and "fish" don't think like that.

Why did you bet the turn?

So I can set the price if he has top pair, fold out weak pairs, and still have equity to call a raise. Draws being double-barreled is standard, and I find that live that the size of the barrel is usually not a consideration...unless the 2nd barrel is the same size as the first, which will be called by a plethora of trashy middle pairs.

I think you'd be a lot better off just checking the turn here.

You're not folding anyone out, you're definitely not folding both out, and you open up betting for villain and the oher guy which could potentially price you out of the pot.

Also it gives you this potentially tricky spot on the river where the pot is inflated do to your small bet.

OP I understand the logic and agree that some players will call a street and fold to a larger than flop bet without really considering its relation to the pot. The problem here is that you have mentioned that this guy likes to bluff, and against that type of opponent I don't want to give them an opportunity to do so when I have a non made hand. Betting small here invites a guy like this to make a bluff that you can't call, which is terrible considering what your hand is. Having gotten a bet size you can call, I think you have to call this river because your hand is well disguised... I think a big thing to consider here though is his reaction to the club??

He raised the 4 on the turn, and bets again when the second 4 hits OTR. This could be 34, J4, or Q4...betting large OTR hoping you have the flush.

The best you beat is trip fours, but his line is not consistent with that hand...A4 for instance doesn't make sense. It doesn't raise OTT.

Fold PF. As played fold OTR.

I thought about this some more, and I do not disagree with the turn. If I can, I want a cheap river against a fish, who would call an overbet on the river if I hit.

On the river, though, I think this is a fold almost every time, which I ended up doing here very reluctantly.

However, folding pre is laughable, especially in a deep game where you know that it is likely to be limped around or raised to an extent where calling actually gives us odds to hit a huge hand with good probability.

To back up my argument with not folding pre, please see this article that alludes to a 4/7 rule with suited connectors and one-gappers, obviously not playing them for 1 pair situations and having an emphasis on position for the higher end of the spectrum.

Stack size is relative to the pre-flop raiser's effective stack.

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...ge=0&fpart=all

I can't think of a hand you beat on the river unless this guy is bad enough to have raised a single pair of 4's on the turn, then not care on the river when he makes naked trips on a flush-completing board. You lose to everything else. His bet is also a "serious" sized live poker bet. He likes his hand, probably to the point where it's easily better than a 7-hi flush. I'd fold.

Didn't read all the posts cause I'm lazy. But turn call is terrible. Just fold.

when you're barreling the turn here, you are semi-bluffing. Naturally, you'll want to bet on the bigger side of things, both to maximize FE, and as a backup plan, build a pot for when you hit the river and can make big value bets.

The flop is a very wet board, so I'd expect villain to c/r flop with his big made hands. When he flats, I'm thinking usually a marginal top pair hand w/ a backdoor straight or flush draw, sometimes he'll flat w/ a QJ.

So OTT i would tend to be wary given I picked up 2 callers on the flop. So I'd tend to check more, but sometimes I will barrel here again but this time bet 75. The fact that you're deep should give you more FE bc the fish cant stand a huge river barrel, even if he is somewhat call-happy. (the pot would then be 240ish and your river bet could be 240 or it could be all-in).

as played, just fold the turn. you could still be second best even if you hit, and the draw is pretty obvious so villain could slow down on the river when it hits.

on river, as played, you have to call. even tho you have nothing beat and the read on the turn is fold. but now you've built this pot and hit your draw. i'd fold to an all-in but 200 isn't big enough relative to the pot to get you to fold now. he has air 10% of the time. he turns made hands into bluffs > 10% of the time. you dont have to be correct all that frequently to make this call profitable.

your conclusion must be that he raises turn here must be a set. but how often does villain just call on the flop after you lead out and a rando calls and he has a flopped set on a very wet board OOP? not all that likely. his c/r on turn could easily be a OEST T9 or KT as well as a flush draw, both of which seem more likely than the a set. QQ & JJ would likely raise pre so only 33 is reasonable. but there are only 3 combos of 33! so why cant villain have an OESD OTT and be bluffing the river and try to make it look like a value bet? if he had NFD OTT then he would make a bigger, closer-to-the-pot sized bet on the river to get max value from smaller flushes. i think this is enough to make the call. remember, you hit your flush...

Your turn bet is really bad IMO. $30 will never get a fold and makes it pretty obvious that your hand is relatively weak. If you aren't betting atleast 50 on this turn you should check.

Does villain bluff at all? If not I'd fold as I don't see him taking this line with TP or any flop 2P combo, so your looking down the barrel of a boat.

How is the turn call terrible? I only need to call $55 to hit 10-12 outs, and there is enough immediate odds to justify this without implied odds factoring into the equation.

And how does a $50 bet get more folds than a $30 bet? If villain has top pair, he is calling, anyway. If villain has a middle pair, he is likely folding, anyway. And if he has something more, he is raising more, making calling a raise more difficult.

I kind of like checking the flop to check-raise, just because live players IP bet all kinds of vulnerable pair hands wanting to take it down, and we can punish that pretty hard by popping them. They'll call with KJ with no real clue what to do on turns that don't improve them/give them further equity, so you can take it down with a sizable turn bet very often. Plus the fish or the button might call with all kinds of loose peels that'll be unwilling to come along to a raise so you can trap all that dead money.

It's not that the turn call is 'bad' but you only have about a quarter of the deck to hit with one pull left, and you're often going to be left with just a bare 7-high on the river with any river bet you make looking pretty suspicious. I'd still prefer calling over folding or raising a lot of the time, but it's still an uncomfortable spot to say the least. I'd also just check behind a lot because despite picking up equity it's a turn card wherein anything villain calls flop with is probably pretty unlikely to fold the turn.

You have to call the turn after you get raised. My 2nd paragraph was in reference to the river.

I think a $50+ bet OTT is necessary if you wish to try and represent any real holding. If you had 2p etc, would you be betting 30 or would you be betting pot? Especially on such a drawy board.

Your $30 makes your hand look like exactly what it is imo.

+1.

Semi-grunching. But seriously, if a player is bad it's generally because he doesn't fold. So stop bluffing or semi bluffing him, esp. in spots where he's not going to fold anything.

Also you need to make up your mind as to how many of your outs are live on the turn, and how bad villain's river play really is/how well you know his river play: the river decision is always going to be marginal, and immediately I can think of live opponents whom I'd tank-call against, and live opponents to whom I'd sigh-muck this hand.

vill's most likely holdings here: j4, 34, 33, q4, in that order (maybe switch first two). I think there's an outside chance he was semi-bluffing the turn with a bigger fd or he tried to get tricky with aa or kk, because he thinks it's a monster and hasn't re-evaluated since pf. when he c/r the turn and fires 200 on river he thinks he's huge. I guess it's a matter of how often he thinks one pair is huge here. of guess he could even have aq or jq, but you're crushed a lot. I think on the best situation crying call is breakeven. my insta read is def fold. I think this is one of those live spots where a "rigorous" analysis turns out to be over-thinking, because he's never balanced across the hands he's supposed to be able to have and he has exactly what it looks like: fish-boat. unless you think vill is capable of this move with complete air, I think it's never a call.

ya id call here, but not lovin it. could be some stupidly played qj or AQ or even AA or something... at least enough of the time i think... given the overvaluing hands possibility