Fairly tight table. V is an Asian gentleman 45-55 with $400, I have him covered. Has played tight. Seems me as getting aggro in late position. Folds around to me OTB and I have AA, I make it $20. SB folds. V calls.

Flop: 874r Pot ~$40 V checks, I bet $30, he makes it $60, I call.
Turn: 8 Pot ~ $160 He bets $40.

You, why and please provide a plan for future streets.

Grunch

I would just flat turn and probably flatting river

Edit: the min raise on flop is just nasty lol immediate red flag in my eyes. 78, 77, 88, 44 and 56 are very plausible. I'm leaning more towards sets since you said he's tight.. I don't see him min raising you with a draw

Raise turn to get value from 99-QQ and worse hands.

I don't think he has 65o if he's tight. And 65s is just a maybe and 4 combos max.

88,77,44 is just 7 combos. And his turn bet is very weak for a monster. 55,66 and other pair + draws are also possible.

So I'd raise/fold turn to $120 for value. We want to do it on the turn because lots of river cards could scare off current overpairs and we could also get value now from pair + draws in his range.

If he calls turn and checks to you on river, mostly ship for value. The raise to $120 leaves just around a 1/2 PSB on the river.

I don't know what I'm thinking. I'm raising turn. PP's make a huge portion of his range.
I just am very cautious as far as min raises go.

Cause I'm scared.

This game is scary.

Folding is a little too nitty but I'm just flatting the turn. I don't think we get min check-raised very often by 99 or 1010. JJ+ is slightly more plausible but even then I think we see a 3bet pre or a larger raise otf much more often than this line.
If he's played snug and straight forward the whole day, then I tend to believe that his tiny check-raise means exactly what you'd think... he has a hand that he wants to get money in with but he doesn't want to scare you off. Take advantage when your opponents let you in on what they have.

What is your image? If you are at all viewed as aggro this could be his attempt to slow you down. Well timed flop c/r bluffs are an important tactic for slowing down TAGs who steal. It looks like ott he wants to give up his bluff but can't. I just call and probably call or check back most rivers.

calling turn, calling whatever on river

+1

Im pretty certain that hes playing it like an overpair.

So you're my favorite poster in the forums.... But I gotta disagree here. I don't think these types of villains are calling enough with 99+ to justify a raise to $120 OTT. If he's played it this bad so far, it looks as though he's viewing his chips in terms of absolute value as opposed to relative value. That said, $120 is "a lot" to nitty old men with 99+ on a "scary" board. I think if raising is your preferred option, $90 is probably better. Costs less when he 3 bets and you're forced to fold, and it's still an easy ship OTR. Personally I'm flatting OTT and OTR. If he checks river, I'm vbetting ~$160-$180.

I think he's significantly more likely to be check/raising the flop to see "where he's at" oop with a pair-type hand and not to go to spaztown with a random bluff.

I think that's perfectly reasonable man.

I think keeping peoples' ranges wider in spots like this with a call makes good sense. I also realize if we raise turn, he calls, and then he does something stupid like ship the river, we're pretty nearly committed in a pretty bad spot. For sure, raising the turn puts us in some more marginal spots and possibly tough situations, and we would fold to a raise.

I'm just thinking about stacks and his range and the pot size, and I see the turn pair the 8 and him bet very weakly, and I think he often has a hand we beat that might give us more value on the turn but not necessarily on a lot of rivers. I'm not convinced he'll necessarily fold too many of his worse hands to a turn raise. I also don't think his flop c/r is necessarily strong.

So for sure, I see a good argument for calling turn and assessing and/or value betting river, etc.

I just smell value on the turn, and I'm gonna pounce and see if I can massage the 80BB starting stacks into the middle and snap fold to a raise.

Agreed. This is one of those spots where it's all on the hero's ability to properly estimate how often villain calls a turn raise. And after thinking about it, given his calling range we're ahead of (99-QQ), I'm pretty sure we only need him to call ~50% for it to be profitable, maybe even less than that. I guess I just tend to nit it up in spots like these. Maybe that's why my winrate is like 60% of what wj94 or KingFish's is at LLSNL.

Never folding. I think I like just calling turn and prolly just calling any river.

4 betting flop can also be a good play, on afraid of sets and in a dry board idk how often V is raising a set.

Wow... I'm definitely looking to fold this hand more than raise/get it in... Do you really think we are getting value from 99-QQ more than just putting the rest of our stack in with 2 outs?

It seems to me that given the flop texture/positions/actions thus far, Villain is way more likely to have connected with the flop in some way rather than slow playing a big pair pre flop and now raising. Now we don't even beat 8x, which is the biggest part of villains flop c/r range that we were ahead of.

As played, given the odds we are getting, I think flatting the turn is in order. If villain has a pair/straight draw, I think we are just going to have to try and dodge it. We aren't far enough ahead to warrant protecting our hand against that part of his range IMO.

Eval river, Mostly folding if Villain bets big.

^ Willy wasnt saying raise/gii. He was saying raise fold actually. If V just calls your raise then its more likely you are good than not, so hence we are shoving the river for value.

Yeah, I know, but the raise OTT is basically the beginning of a plan to get it in so to speak. I'm saying that I would flat turn, not raise. I also think that not raising the turn and betting/raising the river would also be a better value line against 99-QQ.

In the case, that we are ahead here, I think that combination of the turn card pairing, Villains weak bet, and a potential raise from us will fold out 99-QQ more often than we'd like. Plus we are way ahead of those hands anyway and can bet when checked to.

What happens when any 9 T J Q K hit the river? We are either afraid of a set or an over card scares V. If we raise I prefer flop or turn.

Will villain be more afraid of an over card? or the 8? I personally think he should be more afraid of the 8. Not that Villain knows/is thinking this, but we never get to the river with un-improved high cards, so they shouldn't scare him.

If a K-9 hits the river and we are ranging Villain on big pairs mainly (which I'm not), then I'm still ahead of the majority of that range and can act accordingly. In spots where we are WA/WB and Villain can potentially connect with any number of cards but we don't know which, that makes me unafraid of any of them specifically.

Hypothetically, we have AA on a 222 board, raise the flop and get called. We range Villain on 33-KK. All turn cards potentially connect with Villain, there for none are scary since we will still be ahead the majority of the time.

I would also like to reiterate that my general plan for this hand is to minimize losses/ get to showdown cheaply, not maximize value against a portion of villains range that seems rather unlikely to me. The turn card is also one of the worst for getting value from said range. If the turn was a 2 or a 4 or whatever other brick card, then maybe I would get on board the value train, but not here.

raise/folding turn seems pretty bad against a presumed tight villain. Just call turn and river. We want to keep his worse hands in and raising turn just gives him the chance to fold his hands that we want to extract value from on the river.

In my experience a min raise in a heads up pot from a recreational player against an aggressive player is often a hand that he thinks might be good but wants to "see where he's at" and doesn't want to just call and be lost on what to do if we bet again.

So because of this I think his flop min c/r range consists of 99-JJ, discounted QQ, discounted 8x, discounted pair+gutter, 65s, sets, and discounted 2pairs. With our aggressive image, against that range, and V being a fish I would 3bet flop small to $140.

As played, on the turn his sizing looks a lot like 99-JJ, discounted QQ, discounted 7x w/gutter, discounted 65s, boats, and heavily discounted 8x. Against that range and with the other dynamics mentioned above I think we can comfortably raise/fold $100 for value. I don't think V will bet/fold 99-JJ for 1/4th pot because of our aggressive image. Also V won't come over the top with worse for value or as a bluff so it's an easy fold if he ships.

Now that I look back, my initial "call turn/river" sounds better. We keep his hands in that could stab at the river and if checked too, we could bet thinly and comfortably for value on the river and I just hate r/f when we could possibly be ahead.

i was pretty scared after the flop raise but after the turn bet I'd happily r/c.

^this.

My thoughts. The CR minraise on the flop could be either strength or playing back at my aggressiveness with a medium strength hand and also to "see where he's at". A pure CR bluff is unlikely from this villain. So we're kind of WAWB here, so I think my call was fine.

OTT he bets 1/4 pot which indicates either extreme strength or weakness. Kind of polarized. Against this WAWB/polarized/weird line, I think a call OTT would be optimal. A call would make the pot $240. If he bets 1/2 pot or more OTR, I would lean towards him being strong and fold.

Here's what he had: How do I know? I was dumb enough to ship turn I thought 8x was now unlikely and that basically left only 44 in his value range.

Morale of the story: defend against small bets/WAWB/weird lines with just calling.

Morale of the story is don't ship when nothing worse will call.