Quote:
Originally Posted by slimshady1999
As played I'd bet fold $135 on river.
If you bet $135 and the opponent went all-in, you'd be looking at calling $265ish into $735ish, you're getting 2.8:1 - I don't think you need to be good too frequently to make calling there correct. I don't know how to work out how frequency your opponent needs to raise worse flushes to make calling correct, but, instinctively it doesn't feel like he needs to do so very often.
I'd guess there is probably around twelve combos of worse flushes he could have made on the river (with a turn raising range of only flush+straight draws for his hearts) and around ten combos of full-houses/quads (giving him all possible ones but 33). I think he shouldn't need to even raise all his combos of flushes to make calling correct as there certainly should be a non-zero percent chance he spazzes out with something like 89/87.
It's certainly close and against a tight player it's probably a bet/fold. However, there are no reads given in this hand and I think someone smarter than me can probably work out the frequency your opponent needs to raise worse to make calling correct or incorrect. I'm just guessing that it doesn't need to be too often.
Also, why would you bet $135 if you intended to fold and not say $100?