Originally Posted by cardsharkk04
2/5 NL, loose game, deep stacks
Villain is a tight ABC player, rarely bluffs or does anything out of line, and in a fishy game like this there is no need to. He has 2.5k, I cover.
Villain raises in UTG+1 to 35, 5 callers including myself in LP with Ah7hd
Flop: 10 7 7 rainbow. Checks to me, I bet 100, villain calls, one other call. I suspect villain might be playing an overpair cautiously here.
Turn: A. Full boat now, sweet. Checks to me, I bet 250, Villain calls again, hmm. Other guy folds. I'm trying to figure out wtf he can have here. I'm actually a bit worried because that's a horrible card for what I thought he had, but he's still calling.
River: Brick. 3. Checks to me. I bet 600. He ships. Ugh. 1500 more to call.
River decision to bet/fold comes down to these questions:
Is v capable of floating flop with AK or AQ? If no, is V capable of calling river bet with KK, QQ, JJ? If yes, then bet.
If V is capable of floating flop with AK and AQ, is he capable of calling a bet with AK and AQ? if yes, then bet. If no, then back to capable of calling off with KK QQ JJ.
Given V's description, it's questionable if he sees turn with AK and AQ. It's also very questionable if he will call off with KK, QQ, and JJ. Leaving the only hand that gets called on river being AT.
So, IMO......this is a river check versus this particular villain. I know everyone wants to bet/fold because it's a full house.....but it's pretty hard for V to have much of a hand willing to call here. He has to have floated the flop with AK or AQ or be able to call off with a big underpaid. Both not extremely likely.