It’s blowing my mind that you can’t see the branch in which how this hand would continue if you checked turn.

What do you think he’s gonna do on river? You think just calling his river bet is gonna make you look less of a nit?

Ya…not a nit.

Check turn - call river with FH. Not a nit, just a good player with this line.

Like I said, I don’t know how these horrible whales perceive nits, but I suppose you do.

Hand is played fine. Now fold.

Remember it's 3-ways on the turn. The fish still has more opportunities to spew off on the river if I check the turn. If I call the Villain on the river I don't even have to show. I honestly have no idea why you're being so aggressive in this thread.

It's a poker hand thread, it can go in various directions, meta-game being one of them. My feeling aren't hurt whatsoever, I'm just not sure why you're being so aggro ITT

last aggressor

Never mind. My bad. I apologize if you felt that I was too aggressive. Wasn't my intention.

Assuming I believe your description of V I am check folding the river. Betting or calling requires you not believe your description.

Gross spot, but clearly we should fold pre. 7x open super multiway with A7o? Save yourself the headache.

Big River raises in low stakes are nearly always the nuts or close to it. I think AT might c-bet flop often.

A7 is more often a limp or fold pre in EP, but that is possible.

More than likely he has TT or AA.

Feels very unlikely you're good here. It's a heartbreaking fold, and a tough one to find, but its the correct decision imo.

The hand is played fine…don’t check back the river, you have the 3rd nuts and can still get value from worse hands like 87s, AT and AK.

It’s mentally difficult to fold a boat, but I think you’re 75% beat here by TT and 25% beat by AA, and you can easily fold.

Checking back turn can be interpreted as trapping. Checking back river cannot be interpreted as trapping but it can easily be interpreted as playing scared money.

Betting river is probably closer than appears at first glance given the Villain profile. But even if you believe it’s a 0EV bet in isolation, meta-game dictates to bet to not appear to be scared money to the Chinese gamblers.

River decision to bet/fold comes down to these questions:

Is v capable of floating flop with AK or AQ? If no, is V capable of calling river bet with KK, QQ, JJ? If yes, then bet.

If V is capable of floating flop with AK and AQ, is he capable of calling a bet with AK and AQ? if yes, then bet. If no, then back to capable of calling off with KK QQ JJ.





Given V's description, it's questionable if he sees turn with AK and AQ. It's also very questionable if he will call off with KK, QQ, and JJ. Leaving the only hand that gets called on river being AT.



So, IMO......this is a river check versus this particular villain. I know everyone wants to bet/fold because it's a full house.....but it's pretty hard for V to have much of a hand willing to call here. He has to have floated the flop with AK or AQ or be able to call off with a big underpaid. Both not extremely likely.

I do agree the large river bet is a bit thin…
However:
If we think he gets to river with most of his KK-JJ (I think so), but may not have AK due to flop call (I mostly agree, though I might give him partial combos because it’s live poker and real people aren’t perfectly predictable), then we can just bet small like 1/5-1/4 pot. It comes down to targeting with an appropriate size that the worse value hands can call. Even nits get married to hands…if they’ve been waiting all day for KK, they may find it to be difficult to lay down.

For me to want to check I would have to think the turn call narrows Vs range to mainly just ATs and the 4 combos of boat.

I don't disagree. I don't think betting here for the right amount is ever "wrong." I also don't think checking in this specific situation is wrong either.

You say he rarely bluffs and you have a bluff catcher.

Yeah, I just thought it was a somewhat interesting hand when the 3rd nut boat is a bluff catcher. I did fold, he showed a 10.

Also agree that a smaller river bet would have been better. It just kills me to check that hand back. Also it's live poker and people do weird stuff occasionally. I did think it was possible that he might call me down light just because maybe he thought I was exploiting my range advantage here.

He 100% had TT. Good opportunity to misdirect and say something ridiculous like "yeah I put you on a ten, I should have jammed the turn"

Kind of silly to have to draw out the branch, perhaps I just give too much credit.

In the check behind turn branch, V is going to donk river. H is raising anything he donks that isn’t ridiculous huge. This line would cost more and H is more likely to call a shove than the current line.

~$500 in the pot. V donks $300, H raises to $900 and fold to shove?

V donks $400, H just calls?

V donks $500, H raises to $1,100 and fold?

Every single line in this branch is going to cost more. Sure you could just call…but what kind of MUBS is that? Let’s be realistic, you’re not just gonna call river.

Tanqueray, can I make a friendly suggestion that you stop laying on the heavy sarcasm sporadically in your posts because it’s quite hard to follow your train of thought…I guess it’s now clear to me that the post below was sarcastic, but that wasn’t clear initially.

Now as to your response post at the top. EV branch calculations are not at all relevant to my post — I was making a fairly trivial and obvious comment about how the whales might perceive different actions. (After all, I was responding to your post asking about how whales might perceive Hero). That is all. Absolutely nothing to do with strategy. I really thought my comment was totally uncontroversial. But I suppose you have misinterpreted me…

Definitely betting river, should never check this spot, ever. As played, fold.

I agree that I'm almost always (maybe always) betting this river. As I'd have to be extremely confident in the read to not bet. And I'm not a fan of live reads to make fairly extreme deviations. Though at times, it makes sense. Like being against uber nits.


However, if we *assume* the OP's read is correct.....what hands does an ABC player who almost never bluffs and almost never gets out of line......pay us off with here? AT is about it. Maybe we get a call for 1/3 pot or so with AK or AQ....assuming V floated flop.

Like I always said, math is for lazy people.