I would be shocked if someone could come up with 2 reasonable ranges that this is close against. And no, 40% equity when our breakeven is 35% is not "close"

pretty sure there is no long term right answer on this one, if you have the bankroll to handle the variance then i think you should call, if you dont then its an easy fold

the only horrible scenario is being against top set

another bad scenario would be lag having a straight and old dude having any set or two pair

i dont think you can totally discount 99 from lag's range as hero said he can be sneaky, its never smart to say that someone has a zero percent chance of having a hand just because you really want to believe they cant have it

i dunno i think you are ahead of lag enough here and since he has the only big stack im probably leaning towards a call but i certainly dont love it

Yeah I agree this is likely a bad fold

Wow this is the first time I ever seen someone make the correct play and claim it was a mistake. Im shocked about your reply.

you lose to T8 and 99. T8 is unlikely, considering it was a fairly large raise to $35 PF.

I'd probably ship it here.

btw... if you want to talk about results, we have 56% equity on flop, so we made a bad bad fold.

by this logic why would he check the nut straight? if he never has 66 because he is leading with it then he is leading with top set and the straight as well and we should call. I think a lag can check raise here with 66 and the straight but we should still call because of our read that the old man overvalues his hands and the lag knows this and could be trying to iso with a worse value hand than ours.

Firstly it is a straddled pot and he is in the straddle

Secondly, who cares what their actual hands are I was being sarcastic

I think it's a long term good fold. We have 2 villains. If one is on a straight draw and another is on a flush draw we are losing $$... This is very possible. Sometimes u shud fold the best hand. How much variance do u need?

I know I will get flamed for above comment. But at low stakes there is so much value from other ppl who just suck that I dont feel we shud have to push EVERY edge...

I agree with your comments. Hero's equity versus perceived ranges its a fold. Hand vs hand you can say it was a bad fold. But who thinks like that. Maybe the last surviving 2007 internet sklansky bucks players.

Please provide a range against which we don't have enough equity to call. You don't even have to stove it, i'll do it for you. Just give me a range you think is reasonable (which you are claiming we don't have enough equity against).

@PokahBlows

Why do you say that this is a fold? I would be the first to say that this forum is full of advice that is not the best, but the general consensus is that this is a call. I can stove likely ranges for these players if you want given the descriptions, but I am sure that it is a call.

I understand that we shouldn't be results oriented, and obviously one of the opponents will show up with a better hand than us a large % of the time, but idk how you can still advocate a fold in the face of the evidence against.

EDIT

@jack492505

You beat me to the punch, I was writing this post as you were typing.

We have 50%ish equity against a naked FD and a naked OESD. That makes a call hugely +EV. Obviously ranges are wider than that and include some hands that beat us though.

Versus a range of:

for old man: TT/JJ/all two pair combos/sets/combo draws/straight

for LAG: All combo draws/99/straight we have an equity of 31% and if we add in 66 we have an equity of 37%

Keep in mind that LAG covers the old man by quite a bit, so we need to calculate equities out between us and the LAG for the significant side pot.

And the LAG can certainly have 66. And if he can't (because you don' think he would check a hand that strong) then you are obviously always beating him and its an easy call.

7d7s Vs old man(99,66,76s) LAG(AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,Ad10d,108s,97s,85s,76s,1080,85o ,76o)

We have 22% equity otf, not enough to call given the action/ranges.

You seem to have decided the old man is a nit. OP says he is "Older guy from Tennessee. Definitely a losing player, can't really hand read and over values hands."

He called a raise from the BB and c/shove 80bbs. He can have a much wider range than that. He can have a wider range than the LAG.

If you add 88 to the old man and lag, percentages change dramatically. Hero, 31% would have enough equity to call. But 88 should not be in their flop ranges given the action.

yeah the old man definitely has a much wider range than the LAG

But we are talking about flop ranges. The ranges that shove over 100$ bets and a lag who reshoves.

Ranges could never be that wide.

you have them out of order fwiw. The lag reshoves after BB. And its only 80BBs.

I'm not fist-pumping or anything, but I'm also never folding.

Bottom set is a different story, but middle set on a super drawy board? Forget about it.

The only hand you really don't want to see is 99. T8 or 85 is not THAT bad for you.

If you fold and they show you 66 and the nut flush draw you're gonna want to kill yourself.

Or if they both have a straight you're actually in pretty good shape 3-way.

^Here you say ranges are snug. But now your saying lag is wide which one is it. His range is the only one that has you crushed not the old man.

85o and 85s is not in lags range really

Nice level,lmao.