Old Man (BB): Older guy from Tennessee. Definitely a losing player, can't really hand read and over values hands.

LAG (Straddle): A lot of people consider this guy to the be the best player in my smaller player pool. I really haven't played too much with him but I think he knows who I am. That being said I know he is willing to push any edge that he thinks he has and can be very sneaky. I have never seen him chr before though.

PFR (MP): Gambler who doesn't like to fold.

Hero (CO): Probably viewed as standard TAG by LAG and anybody else who is paying attention.

Stacks:

Old Man: ~400
LAG: ~1k
PFR: 500
Hero: Covers

Hero has 77
LAG straddles UTG, folds to PFR who raises to 35, Hero calls, Old Man calls, LAG calls

Pot is 135
Flop is 976
Checks to Hero who bets 100
BB shoves all in
LAG shoves all in
PFR mucks
Hero...

The stack sizes are guesstimations but I am calling 835 to win 1535

I think this one is a call...given ur descriptions u should have BB crushed(A9,TT,...kinda hands), LAG might have some combo draw...
u r calling 850$ to win 1700$...so 2:1 with middle set
I think it's really close...throw a bottom set and some over pairs in their range and u should be good imo

I typed in a long response but the board ate it. That is happened to me like five times today. It really has me on tilt.

In short, ship it.

I updated the post, I am calling 850 to win 1535

LAG never has 66 or an overpair fwiw

Gag.

Having the 7 helps a little I guess as it removes some of the combo draws and is hogging an out for the inevitable flush draw you're going to be fading.

I'm sigh calling. I'm going to be mortified if someone flips 99 here as I really can't see top set c/r this board. If someone's got T8, it just sucks to be you.

Life's going to be scary when you're against AT and 88. EDIT: Are you even ahead against both hands here?

I always like to know if the buy-in is capped for your game in these types of situations. If you can get back in immediately for $1K+, I'm definitely leaning toward a call as you're 200bb stack isn't as hard to come by as it would be in a 100bb capped buy game.

I'm curious what kind of analysis you're looking for here. It seems like a pretty short hand and there's very little to dissect aside from "can we sniff out 99, T8/85" which is out of the ordinary for you...

Easy fold you dont have the odds to call.

But u don't need odds to call, their range have so many draws...u just need to dodge

I think it is an interesting hand about ranges, especially if we consider the fact that there are only 2 really big combo draws for the LAG (ATdd, A8dd, he might be doing this with JTdd, J8dd etc but I don't think he is double check-raising here although its possible) But there are 4 combos of T8s and 3 combos of 99. I assumed he never had 66.

My problem is that he is never doing this with a value hand that we beat but there are a lot of value hands that have us crushed.

The majority of the combo draws really belong to the BB and he also has a lot of random 2 pair combos.

Fwiw I don't know 100% if I had the 7d but I think I did.

Why can't this be 66 iso'ing the BB?

i call— certainly not scared of old man's range and we're fistpumping vs. the lag's range.

We need 30% equity to make this call. You cant find 30% equity on that flop.

But the description makes me believe BB's range is very skewed towards TT kinda hands....since he over values, and can't read hands well...best case scenario they both have a FD...LAG will usually have the better draw or the combo draw as u said...

A LAG won't check this flop with 66 imo

Why are we assuming we need 30% vs two other players with what is supposed to be the best hand? We dont have to fill up to win...we could very likely already be ahead

We have 40% vs T8 and beating almost everything else. Only hand we don't want to see is 99.

I'm only going to comment on LAG, as the Old Man is kind of irrelevant, given your reads.

Its a really close decision...you have 40% equity against the LAGs range of AdTd, Ad8d, T8s, T8o and pot odds are 35% or so.

I don't worry too much about 99, as some % of time LAG would repop pre and the times that he would flat with 99, he can also show up with 66...so it sort of evens itself out.

Personally, what I do think he shows up with is T8...against purely T8s and T8o it's neutral EV (if you don't have the 7) and slightly +EV (37% if you have the 7)...Basically adding all the other combo draws just increases our equity a bit more to around 40%.

However, in these really close spots, find the FEWEST hands you can think of to make up a range for LAG, in order to minimize the margin of error for range analysis

It's high variance for sure, and I won't be too upset if I end up folding middle set to a 170bb bet

wtf at wanting to fold this...

I don't think LAG checks the flop with 99 here...

Anybody want results?

I think the consensus is this is a fist pump call

Results?

I would instacall btw, assuming our LAG is shipping Axdd and shouldn't have 85s too often. I would expect to see 98s a decent amount also.

I think having the 7 hurts us because it blocks combo draws which is what we are hoping they have when we get the money in here.

We should want to get it in, but removing the combo draws is not a good thing. Especially since we are in v. good shape against the pair+FD hands.

The consensus is wrong, most can't read a board to save their lives when they have a set.

Easy fold for a pro.

Not sure if this is directed at me....I think this spot is a lot closer than what most are saying.. Not saying its a fold but I also don't think it's a fist pump call spot either
Unless I'm missing something, it's either neutral ev or slightly +EV
Just my 2 c

Fwiw I tanked for like a minute and folded. I figured I had an an average of about 40% equity in the pot but I had never seen the straddle ch/r before so I had trouble figuring out what his range was and while I would never fold here to a single ch/r from this player the ch/r over the ch/r was so strong I figured his range was straights/combo draws/top set.

The big issue was that I had only heard he was a big LAG. I mean he opened wide but we have only played ~100 hands together and I never saw anything too interesting. I think the big clue is that the PFR was a station so if you flopped a set/straight you should be betting here for value and the ch/r screams combo draw.

The reason I folded is that while I have a big edge vs a combo draw, the majority of BB's range is 2 pair combos which kills my outs for a boat which increases the strength of the combo draw.

BB showed Q8dd and LAG showed ATdd and the turn was a diamond and the board didn't pair on the river.

Results oriented fist pump.