I thought about including this one in my thread from today because it's a somewhat similar concept, but I decided not to because threads with two hands aren't the best.

$2/$5, 9 handed, $1.2k effective. Villain is slightly passive of center and sightly loose of center. This means he's not the typical loose passive fish that plays LLSNL. He's probably a small loser. I've played about 15 hours altogether with villain, and most likely have a TAG image.

OTTH

Hero opens 9 9 $25 UTG and only villain calls in BB.

Flop ($52): K 9 5. X, we $40, call.

Turn ($132): T. X, we $100, call.

In the first thread I checked when the flush came in because I blocked top pair, but in this instance I thought it made a lot more sense to bet because we unblock top pair. Was the sizing too large? I haven't been in a lot of these spots recently and am a little fuzzy on playing the turn when the FD completes.

River ($332): 4. X-hero?

I bet smaller on flop and turn. Sometimes I check turn here as well.

As played I think I bet 125 on the river.

Flop bet may be a little large but no big quibble.

The turn is the mystery. Maybe our bet is a little too big, but what the hell could he x/c with after taking this line? Probably only the nuts or AcAx, I think. He'd fast play his QJ and his small flushes. He might slow down with 55. He could have AcKx (3 combos). A very passive player could have KK too I suppose.

So on the river, we're really targeting AcAx, AcKx and 55 for value (9 combos). I'm not sure he could get to the river with his QcQx or JcJx. His other nutted flushes have us beat, but I think they'd have bet out (9 combos). Only a passive KK would check here.

I'm probably making a value bet of 1/2 psb.

$225 fold

I like pre and flop. I think turn is a bit large, but I'm OK with a bet. River I bet about $150. Not a whole lot he can call with, but a lot of players can't fold a K here -- let's hope it's KT, which he's probably never folding.

If a slightly passive/loose player check/raises the river, it's a fold.

I see no issue with sizing up our value bets against a passive-ish villian as he's going to show us when we're beat before we even get to the river in most cases.

How is he going to show us? He's passive. He's just calling down with his flushes. He might bet the river with the nut flush (and maybe raise turn), but that's about it. Usually, his calling is probably telling us what he has, so river might be a MUBsy check behind.

Flop, I actually think I like going $30-$35. The board is super dry, except the FD.

Turn, I agree, I should've sized down. This is a leak; I would've gone the same with a flush, but should be sizing both down. I've got a bad habbit of merging sizings across multiple streets.

What do we think calls a river bet? Are there enough hands?

I was speaking more generally since some replies were mentioned wanting to bet smaller on the flop.

I see your point in this spot though. But, I actually expect to be raised more with the non-nut flushes by loose passive players since they generally are more concerned with protecting their hand then extracting max value. Getting drawn out on a river club would be nightmare for them. Maybe my thinking here is wrong.

But I think checking river is gotta be too MUBsy right? There might not be that many hands that call river that we're ahead of but I think there is still Kx clubs along with some other junk since this is a BB defend. We can bet something small here like $120 and feel really good about folding to a raise.

Yes, what calls a river bet is a good question. I honestly think KT is about it. Is he the type to flat AK OOP? I play against a ton of MA or older guys who do that and would call river. He's obviously calling 55.

I like a bet/fold, but in the grand scheme of things, MUBsy might be best. Not a lot is calling.

i'm ok with pre/flop. i dont see a reason to bet less OTF. we don't block TP.

turn i bet less because my whole range that bets will bet less. granted, checking is also ok

river, i like a 1/3ish psb, fold to raise

and the 2 gutter balls...

ie, this isn't that dry of a flop.

pre and flop ok
turn $75-80

river as played $120 and I'm calling a min clickback

a bigger raise back at me I'd have to be there

tons of players flat AK pre there and KQ

I would check back river.

200 otr

I’m no nit, but what worse ckc riv after ckc 100 ott? Passive type has 16 QJo that peeled flop. If betting, just make it super small so you can capture all of his 2p and save against flushes and straights.

So much worse stuff could call a river vbet.

A passive villain could have tpgk or even tptk here (I saw a lot of lol flats with AK is Vegas last weekend) just wanting to "keep his bluffs in" instead of raising flop. KT from a passive villain could just call turn because of the flush.

We have a set ffs.

here's a few reasons a loose passive might call river with worse:

you raised pre, so you can't possibly have a flush now
you bet large on flop so you may actually have a K, but you're probably just trying to rep it
you bet large on turn, so you probably have the Ac and nothing else and you're now betting so large you probably don't even have Kx
you bet large on a brick river, so now you're just trying to push me off a hand

do i feel like being a Hero? yes I do. calling my KJ all day long.

Interesting on the wide variety of responses. Hero ultimately checked back and lost to 8 7; I posted this to see my check was MUBS

Sounds about right for this V

I think the take away for me is that the check is still too MUBsy. We happen to run into the top of V's range in a spot where we get paid off by wider range more often.

Having a passive villain that calls too much makes it fairly easy to decide whether or not a river bet is profitable.

We know we're toast when he check raises so those times we lose our bet.

When he folds we get the pot and we would've gotten a pot on the check back anyways when he does fold because he's never folding better here.

So EV of river bet =size* % time we're good when called - size * % time we're check raised.

Oh look, this factors to EV = size * (% we're ahead when called - % we're check raised). All you need to figure is if you get check raised more often than you are good when called (this is correlated with size so figure this for a specific size).