2/5 NLHE 8 handed

Villain 1 is a tighter player, who hasn't shown a lot of aggression, but is fairly new to the table. I'm not sure he has any 3-bet in his range, as I just saw him flat with KK preflop in a 4-way pot.

Villain 2 is kind of a sloppy player, lots of calls out of position, etc. He's also fairly new to the table and just seems to be bleeding chips with his hand selection. I haven't seen him show his cards on the river yet.

Hero: MP 550 9 9
Villain 1: Button 450
Villain 2: BB 340

Folded to hero, Hero raises to 20, Villain 1 calls, Villain 2 calls
Pot = 60

Flop: K 9 4
Villain 2 checks, Hero bets 60, Villain 1 calls, Villain 2 folds
Pot = 160

Turn: K 9 4 2
Hero bets 125, Villain 1 shoves
Pot = 575 (245 to call)

Hero ??

What're you doing double barreling this board OOP? Also, your second barrel essentially committed you to the pot, since you've now put in 46% of effective stacks.

As played you pretty much have to call now and hope to suck out or that villain is semibluffing with the Ad.

1. My logic when betting out on the turn was that AQ or AJ made a small part of this person's possible range. I thought AKx or more rarely AAx / QQx were also strong possibilities after his flop call. I wanted to charge him for these hands and not let a 4th diamond on the river hang me.

2. I knew the bet sizing was leaving me pot committed, but I didn't see how I could bet much less if I was going to bet at all.

3. I also figured that even if he did have the flush, I'd still have 22% equity in the pot.


You may be right that a check on the turn is better. In that case the pot stays smaller and I get to draw at the FH more cheaply. Perhaps this hand isn't the best example of the maxim, "Always play sets aggressively"

double barreling? hes betting for value vs a draw. should he just check because its possible he has a flush, let the draws get there for free?

that is a super results oriented response

hit the call BTN

its super standard and well played if you called

I did make the call, and I wasn't too worried that the call itself was bad, I was just wanting to do a sanity-check on the line that got me into that position. I think if this guy has a flush, I can live with the line I took.

He had KK so the diamonds ended up being irrelevant.

yeah not much you can do there. well played

This

cooler

def cooler....now what if he was the super live nit that always has it? where he like hem and haws, "I guess I'm going home" deal.........can we just snap fold mid set here?

Reason I ask is because I play a lot in the morning with a bunch of old dudes and seriously they always have it

Big time cooler. He can easily have a king with some big diamond like Ad or Qd. It sucks but coolers happen, not much you can do inthis spot.

If you are not bet/calling with mid-set here you are really playing with 'monsters under the bed'.... And remember, SCARED MONEY IS DEAD MONEY.



Btw, monotone .... Not monochrome. Lol.

Well done, 1 in ~120 ... and they usually seem to go against.

Question for all - if OP had TP/TK, do we still lead OTT for value, or check for pot control?

grunch

Pot 180 on turn? Monster rake

Fold as played. Stings like a mother, and I'm not sure I could pitch my cards in the muck as fast as I should.

I like pf and the flop bet.

Villain 1's flat on that flop with Villain 2 in the BB screams a flush to me, almost like AdQd exactly. These guys know they are passive and nits and I feel like they look to get value in these spots by sucking in the loose guy who can still act. Yes, it could be TPTK/GK FD as well. I see that you want to include KK in his range, but I dont see it. I see a nit raising out the FD with top set here. Hero description? How might he see you?

If he is really a nit who never raises, when he raises this turn he has us beat. No question. Even if a nit would do that with top two on a flush board, would he call a preflop raise with K9? Or flat a flop bet 3 handed with a c/r still possible? I really dont think this is MUB. Guys who dont 3b KK pre dont pick this spot to bluff. They wait all night to get their money in here. And get it in good.

I bet flop pot, when called like this check turn and Villain 1 will turn his hand face up. If he bets we get to draw for the right price, or fold with confidence before commiting our stack. If he checks it back and we can bet any non-diamond/filled-up river for value (we only hate 7 diamonds, what then? b/f?) and see if our turn check can squezee blood from his A K turnip.

haha!

Guess I nailed that one.

NH, WP

This is an interesting spot. So let’s start with pre-flop range and go from there adjusting for action on flop and turn.

Pre-flop the villain is in position so he will be calling with the majority of his speculative holdings looking to make a hand and stack you (this is pretty much the motto for mid level live grinders). From your read we also know that he is not 3 betting anything, hence QQ+/AK is also in his flatting range. So:

22-AA, Axs, 45s-J9s, ATBs, AJo+, and KQ for example. (Maybe he has more or less suited connectors or more or less off suite broadways, but the idea is the same.)

On the flop, let’s construct a range that he is going to continue in the hand with assuming he is playing fit or fold (which he probably is given the player read we have). I will put the number of each hand in parenthesis.

KK(3), AA(6), Axd flushes(6), Ad9(1), Ad4(3), Made Flush from suited connecters / gapers and broadways (15), KQd(2), KQo(9), AdK(2), AKo(9), Adx (36), 44(3)

So, we are looking at a total of 95 hands.

Of this 95 hands, 54 hands (AKo, KQo, and Adx) are not going to check raise you, but will call a half size pot bet incorrectly most likely, especially given you bluffy image on the table. Notice that if you just fold to a 4th diamond, villain is not getting the implied odds to draw to the flush with the lone Ad even for a half pot size bet.

Against the 41 hands that you will check raise lets figure what you equity is. To make it simple without using poker stove, etc: Let’s forget about KK and 44 because they are a wash equity wise. When you get it in behind here, you are facing the 21 made flushes. When you get it in ahead, you are facing the 14 hands that have 8 outs against you. Let’s approximate out equity.

(.18)(21/35) + .84(14/35) is something like 42-45 percent equity.

So what can we conclude here?

Clearly you cannot fold after you get check raised on the turn for the amount of money that you have left behind with 42-45% equity.
However, I am also wondering if betting as much as you bet on the turn is optimal. I would bet half pot to keep the 54 hands that he would not check raise with in the pot and collect the value there. You are still stacking of to a check raise, but at least you collect the value if he does not have a made flush and or KK by betting half pot.