Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet 2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet

09-23-2008 , 12:43 PM
Hero is in MP with about $220
Villain1 is SB with ~500
Villain2 is in CO and has Villain1 covered

Preflop:
UTG limps
1 fold
Hero limps with JT
2 more limpers
SB raises $15 to $20
BB and first limper fold
Hero calls $20
LP calls $20
Villain2 calls $20

Flop ($90): 7 9 4
Villain1 bets $30
Hero calls $30
LP folds
Villain2 calls $30

Turn ($180): Q
Villain1 bets $100

Hero???

I've only got about $170 left, and I figure Villain1 probably has a set and Villain2 has some kind of draw.

Do you agree with those reads based on the action, and what do you think the right play is?
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 12:56 PM
Lol live shortstacker.... this is a mathematical problem, not a hand problem, count yourself
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 01:12 PM
Well, if it was heads-up it's a clear fold. If Villain2 stays in the hand, it is closer.
At worst, I'm 5:1 (against a set and the nut flush draw)
At best, I'm maybe 2.5:1 (against a set and lower straight/flush draw)
I figure on average, I'm about a 3.5:1 dog.
If I just call and Villain2 comes along, I think I have the right odds.

I guess what I'm asking is whether you think the CO will come along, given the action so far. And if he'd come along for $100, shouldn't I just push? because how many people will call $100 here and fold for $170? (Remember, there's no chance of the SB re-raising.)
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 01:13 PM
You have 44BB, you call with JTs in awful position and call a 1/3 pot flop bet with 2 people behind you and you have a gut shot and a flush draw.

Now villain bets $100 into $180 pot on the turn, you have $170 left with someone left to act behind you and you think first villain has a set and you are curious what to do?
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 01:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nycplayer
Well, if it was heads-up it's a clear fold. If Villain2 stays in the hand, it is closer.
At worst, I'm 5:1 (against a set and the nut flush draw)
At best, I'm maybe 2.5:1 (against a set and lower straight/flush draw)
I figure on average, I'm about a 3.5:1 dog.
If I just call and Villain2 comes along, I think I have the right odds.

I guess what I'm asking is whether you think the CO will come along, given the action so far. And if he'd come along for $100, shouldn't I just push? because how many people will call $100 here and fold for $170? (Remember, there's no chance of the SB re-raising.)
Check your math
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 01:31 PM
Well, in my defense, with 4 limpers and the blinds, I know I'm going to get some company on calling a small preflop raise of $20. (Typical raise PF is $20-$35) Folding this PF is super tight for this game.

The flop call was maybe questionable, but again - what hands behind me do you think are going to raise the SB's bet on this board? And I think 4:1 is decent to take another card off and see if I improve. On the flop I put SB on 77-AA, KQ, AJ+. I don't think I'm terrible against that range, but I don't have pokerstove handy so, I'm not certain.

On the turn, I can narrow it down to a set of 77, 99 or QQ+.
Villain2 could have 56s, T8, QT, KJ, AXs.

I'm not *that* bad here.
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 01:36 PM
First off, from what I've read, you don't have any idea what Villain 2 has. He could have just one pair. Although it does seem that Villain 1 has 99, it doesn't necessarily have to be true. With only 44BB, I would gamble in this spot.

I would have raised the flop without question with your stack. I am much more willing to gamble with a short stack than to risk a big stack with a draw against a possible set.

Secondly, you are getting 2.8:1 which fits about right with your hand on the flop or turn against 99. This also fits if Villain 1 has AKs. Forget about the guy behind you. I would call. No need to stick it in. He's going to call the remaining 70. If you miss, you can just fold and save 70.
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 01:38 PM
I would say if you're short and not prepared to get it all-in with a hand like JT sooted on these kinds of boards, fold it pf and wait for better spots or just play short-stacking style. No drawing hands, mostly high broadways, high pairs, etc.
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 01:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DMS9999
Check your math
Cardplayer.com gives this:
Board: 7 9 4 Q

JT :28.57%
99 :57.14%
T8 :14.29%

That's best case; worst case is:

JT :14.29%
99 :73.81%
AK :11.90%
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 01:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GFatStacks
I would have raised the flop without question with your stack. I am much more willing to gamble with a short stack than to risk a big stack with a draw against a possible set.
How much?
Any decent raise leaves me committed on the turn, so should I just get it all in?

(By the way, I had been having a losing session - I'm not a habitual shortstacker, so I'm not that used to these situations.)
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 01:45 PM
FWIW, I just think you have to raise or shove the flop acting after a bet and with someone left to act behind you.
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 01:52 PM
I think maybe shoving the flop would have been the right play. It didn't really occur to me at the time.

I shoved the turn, and Villain2 came along, however in retrospect, I agree with GFatStacks that I should just call here.
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-23-2008 , 08:37 PM
I, too, would prefer a flop raise all-in with your stack and 12 outer.

As played, I would just call the turn. You don't have very much fold equity here, so I would save my $70 in case I brick the river. The benefit of just calling is that if you hit the river, it will be very difficult for your opponent to fold to a $70 bet into a $300 pot if he indeed had a set.

If villain 2 raises the turn, you have to call, obviously.
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-24-2008 , 10:13 AM
You wouldn't have to push the flop, I don't think that is necessary. You could make it 85-100, still have 100 left over. You would likely knock out Villain 2. If Villain 1 decided to just call/slowplay his set, you could take a free card on the turn, possibly save yourself 100 or more.

At the worst, Villain 2 will call, Villain 1 with push, you call, Villain 2 calls, and you have decent odds to make your hand, depending on what you are up against. All I know is that when i see that flop with 44BB, the money is likely getting in, and I am typically happy about it.
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-27-2008 , 02:57 PM
j10 suited seems like shizzy hand when you play shortstacked... your better off playing 1/2 with that much money
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote
09-27-2008 , 04:54 PM
yeah poor hand selection

as played, raise and commit on flop
2/5 Live: strong draw on turn, facing strong bet Quote

      
m