Prior hand:
I flopped the nuts with 76 on a 589 board with two clubs in a raised flop with Villain1 (old TAG) and Villain2 (very good, aggressive young LAG). Villain1 was the preflop raiser, and he bets $45. Villain2 calls. I make it $145 to go. Villain1 folds. Villain2 announces "all in" with $650 behind. I call and double up.
What this and subsequent play showed me was:
Villain2 will continuation bet, but can be bet off a hand.
Villain1 is very willing to stick it in if he senses you are making a move and/or he can take you off your hand. He also plays a lot of hands and outplays people after the flop. I think his image of me is as a good player who is willing to make moves; he definitely thought I was stealing when I reraised the flop. . . he was expecting me to fold.
9 handed Live 2/5 full ring:
Villain1 ($600) limps from MP
Villain2 ($350) makes it $25 on the button
Hero ($1350) calls with J
10
in BB
Flop ($77):
7
9
3
Hero checks, Villain1 checks, Villain2 bets $30. Hero calls, Villain1 calls.
My thinking here is that Villain2 has a hand like 2 high cards, and that I can try to take the hand away or win it outright on a lot of turns with my overcards and gutshot. I don't like Villain2's flat call however.
Turn ($167):
7
9
3
J
I check, Villain1 checks, Villain2 checks.
My thinking here was to check raise either player, but it got checked around. My usual line is to lead out here, but the presence of the aggressive player after me changed my line a bit.
River ($167)
7
9
3
J
8
Hero bets $75. Villain bets announces "all in", which makes it $470 more to call.
I have the second nuts here. . . I take a couple minutes, and apologize to the table. I tell him, "you have QT, and I know this, but I think I still have to call you." My thinking is that QT just didn't fit his line. . . he overcalled on the flop with basically nothing, and checked when he turned an open ended straight draw. I call, and . . .
Obviously, he has QT, or I probably wouldn't be posting. At the time, I wrote it off as a cold deck. After a while tho, I'm questioning myself.
My thinking:
1) He's an excellent player (maybe the best player at the table.) At second level thinking, I'm 90% sure he knows my river bet means that I have a 10. With that knowledge, I'm calling to chop or lose.
2) Calling hoping to chop is -EV, but the pot is laying me a $317 overlay.
3) If I fold this hand, and I'm wrong, I may be losing value against an aggressive opponent.
4) If I fold this hand, and I'm right, he's going to be convinced I have X-Ray vision and avoid me (he's seen me call down light as well.)
5) This is live play; huge bets on the river are very rarely bluffs. However, this guy plays more like an online 6max player.
6) QT just doesn't make sense. How does he overcall the flop? My only guess is that he was thinking the same thing I was. . .
Does anybody find a fold here?