Recently sat down at the table. All my reads are stereotypical.

Villain is a 30-40 y.o small asian man. He has one of the larger stacks at the table of ~1600.

Hero is a mid 20s kid. I like to think I appear at least semi-competent. I've folded almost every hand in the past 20 min because I've been card dead.

OTTH 2/5 NL

Effective stack: 1200

Preflop Hero on the BTN with 4 5

Fish opens 25 over one limper.
V calls in the CO.
Hero calls on the BTN.
Limper calls.

Flop (4 players) ($100): 6 3 2

Initial raiser fish bets 65.
V in the CO makes it 250.
I have ~1200 behind and Villain has me covered.

I think Villain is heavily weighted towards sets here. I don't think this player type takes this line or sizing with a combo draw.

Hero?

Extremely lucky spot. I'm just trying to figure out the best line to maximize value.

If you think he's weighted towards sets, I'd shove and hope he puts you on a combo-draw semi-bluff. Then fade.

Garick's line is obviously fine, but the value hunter in me wants to flat this raise, try to get another 185 in there from CO, and then get it in on the turn when he's lost half his redraw EV.

The downside to that is sometimes the board will pair, he jams, you make the sigh hero fold, and he confidently shows JJ. I'll DM you the number to the suicide prevention hot line for when that happens.

If Villain is competent you can jam so that he might think you're semi-bluffing.
Fact is, we have a nitty image so Villain can correctly interpret our move as a shove for value and hero folding a set.

But I think making such discussions is easy when we are on our sofa. If I were you, I'd probably do some Hollywood and then jam.

What if a club comes on the turn? Do we still jam?

If we include clubs and board pairs, there are 16 bad turn cards. Do we think this 32% gamble is worth getting that extra 185 from the initial raiser?

If we can get the initial raiser to put in $ with an overpair, he has <5% equity. Even if he has AcXc and flats, that is still an equity mistake vs our exact holding, albeit a small one.

Ride the variance train with me my friend, it is a fun ride which will bring you much pleasure. And occasionally vomit-inducing sickness, but still, pleasure!

^Btw, we don't have to dodge 32% of the deck vs the IR. Assuming CO has a set and doesn't fold, we need to fade 7 outs twice no matter what. The IR has between zero and 8 outs (i think you counted the 2 twice ), and he is more weighted towards zero.

So I do kinda think it is worth it, yes. If there is massive action on a club turn, then yeah i'd consider folding, but I'd be much more worried about the board pairing.

And again, nothing wrong with raising flop. I'm just offering an alternative.

Well I don't think I'm scared that much of the club. But I do think that he would be scared of it if he had a set. Meaning that it would kill my action against him.

If I flat on the flop, he could easily construe that I have a combo draw (whether or not that is a good read).

Get money in the pot now, before one of a million action-killing cards falls on the turn or river.

Min-raising the villain leaves us with less than a PSB if called, and that could get awkward on the turn if a bad card falls. I would say just jam now.

ETA: And if we just flat, and the preflop raiser comes along for the ride, the pot will be $850 and we will have $950 remaining. Again, this is a really awkward sizing if a bad card falls on the turn.

And by "awkward" I mean "we pretty much have to call someone else's shove no matter what."

Shove... tons and tonssss of bad action killing turns lets GII good

Thanks for the feedback.

Results:

We jammed and Villain tank called with 66 top set. We held phew.

I posted because I was wondering if other weaker hands like bottom set would call here too. Couple of the players at the table said that I was losing value in the longterm because I generate a lot of folds with this play.

In addition to the reasons provided, I like this overbet shove because people do this with open ended straight flush draws etc. I think bottom set can't fold because of that. And even against a straight, sets still have decent equity.

Stop talking strategy at the table.

And yes, combo draws are exactly what were all talking about when we said it would look like a semi-bluff.