My opponent is young and aggressive. Our only history together was a hand we played earlier that day: UTG straddled for $10, I limped from early pos with 99, two others limped and villain made it $50 to go from the BB. I called and the two limpers called. Flop came 7 high with two diamonds. He CB the pot for $200, I pushed in, the limpers folded and villain called $200 more. He had AK of diamonds but missed. He rebought for $500 and is up $300 since then. I still have him covered.

No straddle, so he opens from middle position for $20. One caller and I raise with AA to $75. He calls and we see the flop heads up. Flop is 223, he checks and I bet $125, he calls. Turn is another 2 and he checks. There is $425 in the pot and he has $600 left in his stack. My read is he has 99-QQ, but doesn't love his hand. What's a betting line for the turn and river to maximize my value here?

I voted Bet $200 on the turn, $400 on the river. But it purely depends on what you've seen villain do in previous pots. Will he almost always bet on the river if you check behind on the turn? Will he frequently call a c-bet on the flop but dump lots of hands to continued aggression on the turn? If so, I like checking better.

since you basically just nutted this board, i might donk bet 125 again and hope he raises me

it would suck to have him fold his pair on the turn

Stringing him along should be the most effective way to bust him.

220 then 380

220 then 380 is better than 200 then 400 how? I liked the suggestiong of betting 125 again.

I read my opponent as unlikely to call a bet on the turn, so I elected to check. If the river brings an overcard to his pair, will that make him even less likely to call a bet on the river? In that case betting the turn is even more important.

$200 then $400

220 then 380 isn't better.

I don't like betting 125. If he's going to call 125 he'll probably call 200 and betting 125 makes it harder to stack him on the river.

Should a river card in his range, 9-Q, slow us down at all? Obviously he's only 4.4% to hit his hand on the river, but on the river, given one of those cards, I count 14 (4x4 -2)possible cards 2 of which would hit him, or a 14% chance that his hand is now best.

ummm maybe if you had 8,000 dollar effecive stacks

Thanks for the input. The river was a 10, villain checked, I jammed $600 trying to represent AK that missed and he snap called with pocket 10s. Next time I'll bet $200 on the turn since that was the consensus line, but I don't hate my check there.

i think your misunderstanding... the bet isn't to make him pay to draw to the extra card... if he hits a two outer on the river with these stacks, oh well that's poker

Thanks, but I understand that completely. The turn bet is to build the pot so he can more easily justify calling the river, plus it gives him the chance to CR the turn if he's strong. I read him for weak, so if he thinks he can only beat a bluff, I tried to play my hand like I missed with AK. As I said, I don't hate my check on the turn because I think it increases my overall EV despite it costing me the pot in this case.

If you're ever in a situation where the only way you're going to get more action is if your opponent outdraws you, it's best to go on ahead and bet. Folding out a hand that won't call unless it beats you is neutral EV; letting it freeroll to a better hand is -EV.

nah he's saying that since he checked the turn and jammed the river he looked weaker making it more likely his opponent would call with a pair of 99-qq when his opponent does not fill up

didn't realize that's what you were going for at first, and i think it's decent... i like to bet the turn tho because there are a few flush draws that are definately in his range

With 2s full of Aces I hope the flush draws get there.

he will pay to draw to it on the turn... if he misses (80%) of the time... he will just fold the river

so make a small bet giving him an easy call with a FD on the turn

Commit him by betting $200. He's not going anywhere with an overpair unless he knows you got the aces. It would got check - check if so.
And now he's getting the odds to call your river shove and will call. People tend to not fold their full houses *g*

Interesting post by the way.

Id raise more preflop to be honest somewhere between 80-100, As played bet 200-250 on turn

No one ever folds a full house.....I think thats the zeebow theorum right? Just bet 200 on the flop and 400 on the river. He wants to call. No reason to get fancy and check the turn b/c he wants to pay off w/a weaker fh so he can complain about how bad he runs and how he always runs into AA

def bet the turn, difficult for him to stack off with 99 and 1010 for 600 on the river IMO unless he is a donk, you said he was aggresive yet he seems to be passive in the hand so i think he is more likely to call 200 on turn and then feel commited on river if any card between 4-10 peels. as played i think he only calls the 600 on river with 1010 or better which sucks a little for you as you now only beat JJ QQ and KK and i think he plays those hands more aggressively on earlier streets.