Quote:
Originally Posted by Swaff
2/5 game 600 effective stacks for the players in the hand.
There is an EP limp, then a MP raise to 30. I look down at AK of hearts in the SB. I decide to flat here. The standard raise at this table has been 15-20, so the raise to 30 definitely registers in my head. Also, I'm out of position with a hand that's behind A LOT of holdings at the moment. I'd like to just see a flop and go from there. If I 3 bet then get 4 bet, it's a terrible situation for me. The EP limper also calls.
See, here is the mistake of looking at your hand: "
a hand that's behind A LOT of holdings at the moment" -- You are not behind. You always at least even if not way ahead except AA/KK and even that only half of combos.
You have 120bb effective. At this depth you 3! and become committed (call a shove or shove yourself). Why care about the flop? We are not drawing with AK. I will show you why not calling his $30 pre.
66% you miss the flop and as I suspect you'll be checking and folding.
So, you lose in 100 trials 66x30=-1980
33% you flop TPTK and maybe win
So, you win in 100 trials 33x30 = 990
My friend, bad news, you are losing on average -1980+990 = -990
You can make some small adjustments for some dead little money or some another small call after you got your TP OTF but the idea is that if you call and play AK to draw OTF or else fold if you miss, you will be losing money. Goddamned losing ...man! Even when you make your TP on the flop you don't know what to do if villain give you heavy action. Sometime you'll be calling with second best and sometime you'll be folding the best.
Now, if you play it very aggressive manner preflop you can blow away the tight dudes from their QQ, JJ, TT, 99 and all their AK because few want to commit for stacks with those hands. A great achievement for us. You dominate everything else and have cut in half the AA/KK combos using your AK as two blockers.
Now, honest, I only read the first part of your post and I didn't know he flopped a Set of Queens with his pocket QQ. If you have 4! heavy as a commitment bet or shove he may have fold his hand for getting horrified to play QQ for $600. I don't know. You must know what player he is. Most TAGs nits will goddamned fold QQ to a shove preflop. To a 4! or 5! all QQ, 88 and 33 muck. This for sure all 88 and 33 hit the muck. Think what you would have done if the flop would have been Q,A,3 rainbow, you flopped TPTK and lose because you don't know where you are. WA or WB? Never know. Never know with one pair hands. Never know..., Calling is never good with AK.
GL and good flops
Last edited by outdonked; 08-09-2017 at 05:29 AM.