Can you elaborate on why this part should be true?

If I were V I would be thinking H had TT/JJ the way it was played.

The big bet on the river is kind of weird when the board doesn't improve and a bigger bet is usually on the bluffier side.

OTOH your only read you gave us says this type usually isn't one to triple barrel bluff. You have seen him call loose a bunch of times but have zero other reads? What does he look like etc?

I would have fired both streets myself for about 2/3 pot and x river. Another thing that needs to be addressed is why are you playing so passive against an unknown who you said is calling a lot when you have TP2K?

I read all of the comments afterwards. I mix in a x with TP type hands against regs who I am used to playing who also know I like to fire a lot. How often do you recommend playing a hand like this vs an unknown? Doesn't the combination of V being a loose caller and us having a strong hand scream that we should be betting?

Apparently V would, unless he thought he was bluffing. V probably doesn't even know if it's a bluff or a value bet though. Gotta love live poker.

while pfr has hands like overpairs, the total range is wider and more diffuse and contains more air (think hands like suited aces that totally brick this flop) while the IP cold caller has smaller and more condensed range that contains suited broadways, good unsuited broadways, mid pairs, and good suited connectors, and small amount of suited Ax.

So while we might contain the same hands that IP contains, he has those more "equity" type hands more often than we do, simply because he has less "bad" hands in his preflop cold call range.

However at LLSNL you will rarely find this is the case, because their cold call range will be very wide with too many bad unsuited broadways, too many low pp, too many low suited connectors or too many suited 1 gappers, and also too many suited aces so their range will be too weak compared to a more condensed range and therefore will be more vulnerable to a betting strategy (cause they have lots of hands that just don't have enough equity to float)

How does this board connect more with a caller's range when we have straights (JTs), all sets, overpairs and QJ+?

Callers range is more condensed than ours, so a larger percentage of their range connects with this board. And when you consider all the better hands that you mentioned that we can have our hand becomes more of a check imo.


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OP's read is villain seems to have a loose calling range. If he's playing all 16 JT then he doesn't have a condensed calling range.

Flop check is fine. River I would snap fold. I think you run into AQ or two pair really often here. He also has 99/88 a lot. What can he be bluffing with here? Sure occasional 45 but whatever this is a fold. It's extremely obvious you have 1 pair < AQ by the river.

Relative to our range I would say it is. My main point is that this board is pretty good for a pre flop caller in a live 2/5 game, so we should be checking a decent amount.


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huh?

obvious bluff is obvious bluff.

when H checks to him for the second time on the turn and H still calls OOP, V most likely ranges H on AQ+.

do you really think it was some kind of combo bet? like H will never call with AK, but maybe V can get H to fold AQ, KK, or AA?

Don't believe every part of this hh is true

H has to have AQ+ when he c/c twice? Come on now...all sorts of stuff H can call with twice that QJ beats. 9T, 8T, QT, 97, A9, K9, etc. V probably has no idea if he's bluffing or value betting. If V expects H to have AQ+, V should be expecting a river call...and I suspect that H is almost always calling with AQ+ here

+1 Jarret’s posts are money and a great blend of GTO and exploit.

I didn’t Pio the hand but I’m pretty confident you are right that against a proper preflop range OOP should be checking a ton. IP probably has a small equity disadvantage but likely has an EV advantage. However, once we factor in IP likely being too wide pre and probably playing poorly post, we can start to up our betting frequency here and bet some KQ. Of course if IP is making more betting mistakes than calling mistakes then check is superior.

I’m not sure if I agree that river is a call against a rec in practice but it’s definitely at least a high frequency call in theory and the thought process is great.

Edit: Saw some people debating who this board hits harder. So if we open a range of A2s+ 76s+ ATo+ QJo+ 22+ and he flats 54s+ 64s+ all broadways 22+ and 3 bets TT+ AQs+ then we have 51.7% equity as OOP range vs range but IP player would still have an EV edge I would guess and we need to do a lot of checking even though it technically hits OOP harder.