V is a loose/passive fish who I saw check and cold call a bet/raise on QJJT7 with QT, call pf raises with T5o, call flop cbets light, etc etc. Terrible and ready to give his money away. He limps/raises pf 50-50 I think. He had $700 when I sat down and is now at $400.
Hero is at $290.
OTTH: (7-handed)
V raises $20 in LJ, Hero raises to $60 in LP, V calls
Call and get it in on the turn. He's not folding turn with anything he is calling a shove with. Expect JJ/77 a decent % of the time given aggression and history if extreme LP tendencies. But you are too short to do anything else.
Given the QT hand history, do you think villain is getting away from these hands on any turn?
maybe not, but he doesn´t look like a guy who´s got a b/f range at all.
anyways, don´t think it matters much as long as hero doesnt do something stupid like checking behind one street, we are clearly ahead of his range and want to get allin at some point
imo the risk of him actually folding 88, 99, TT, Jx or 7x ott if an A,K or Q rolls off > risk of him folding those hands to a flop raise esp if he can still make an excuse to put us on AK.
With his flop bet pot stands at $187 we have $230. After putting in the $60 we have $170 behind in a pot of $247. I think we can shove the flop and smile about it.
If we can still get stacks in on turn vs. those hands i prefer letting him continue betting the turn with his weak hands.
Also, I think the donk bet is fairly polarizing from a loose passive player. His bet/call range imo is bounded below by KJ/QJ and he's likely committed with those hands regardless of turn. He does have some air/weaker pairs but they are likely not stacking off but may bet the turn.
Based on that, I think we lose some value by not calling.
Would you not be worried about him realizing a piece of his equity rather cheaply, or possibly a crummy card OTT freezing action?
I don't think there is really a card in the deck that's freezing him with Jx or QQ based on QT history. If he has exactly those hands and one of the eight K/A comes and he finds a fold for less than PSB that definitely sucks. But I think we make up for it when he bet calls with 7x, 88-TT, etc.
I'm also not sure on this board he has worse hands with much equity. He is either crushed or crushing us. I like your line on JTxr or J7xss boards exactly for the equity consideration you just mentioned.
