I think minraising is the best sizing ott as well. In theory it's a shove but since you can easily bet/call a shove from V given the price you would be getting-- it makes sense to force him to continue with all his Qx.

He would've ended up getting there if that's what he had but you're obviously way ahead and would be stacking him on most rivers.

My guess is villain had 10x here given that this hand was posted and the emphasis on your read. But it's quite rare to find a villain at this level only $600 eff. who blasts river with SDV imo. Even if it's unlikely they're good.

No, it doesent make sense at all actually. Villain has taken this line 4 times before (calling flop C-bet then donking turn), due to description in the OP. Villain is very likely a fish clicking buttons, and his range is very wide here-he have alot more hands than Qx. Its also very possible his range is so wide in this spot that Qx isnt even a big part of his buttonclicking range.

This is where experienced live villains absolutely destroys people, they read the dynamics very quickly and executes the line that nets us maximum exploitation. Min raising turn here is so bad compared to our other options in my opinion that i am quite surprised Bart Hanson suggested it actually. Ive always thought he gives very solid advice on the live games, but here i think he was way off for once.

Yeah dude, I have no idea what you are talking about.

I don’t care that V has taken this line 4 times. Every situation is different. In this situation, Hero bet 2/3 pot (after rake) on Q-T-3r. We have no idea whether the past 4 times he bet 1/4 pot OTF. If we were given that information, it would be a different story.

In my eyes, sixsevenoff’s flop sizing eliminates almost all of V’s floats that bricked flop, such as A highs. This drastically reduces the amount of junk V can spazz with on later streets.

Yes, the history is a factor but only a minor one over a small sample size. It is ridiculous to use this type of info to make your decisions for you, or to rationalize poor play.

And have you ever noticed that the vast majority of the best poker players in the world are young? Experience is extremely overrated.

Also if anything is terrible, it’s your grammar.

Lol is all i can say. I should have known better than wasting my time replying to you.

By the way, English is far from my first language- but thanks for your concern.

Since experience is a great indicator of poker ability, what % of the best high stakes pros are over the age of 40?

rtp, you should be nicer, he's not insulting you, he just has a different strategic viewpoint... i just unblocked you ffs, let's keep it unblocked

but more to the point, this is indeed the reality of live poker, a rec player has done something 4 times is a row in about as good as in online HUD showing 80vpip over 10k hands

he could have it all those times, that's always possible

even if he didn't have it that time he could have luckboxed into having it this time

but this is about the clearest indication that the villain is button clicking a pre-assigned strategy that he's already seen work before and plans on continuing to do so

we can't ever predict anything with strong accuracy - but if someone takes a very peculiar line against you all four times you play a hand with him and you don't use that information to adjust then you have no business playing live poker

live players are terrible, just terrible and they do fall into predictable patterns - this is exactly why online win rates are nothing compared to live. My live winrate in bb/hour was nearly 6x higher than my online bb/100 in the micros - if we calculated both by bb/100 it'd be an even more disgustingly large difference

and that isn't because i'm good at reading people or "better at live", it was 100% the quality of my opponents and doing stuff like that

online i probably panic and fold there in same spot

if you're going to ignore information like that, you're far better suited for grinding online

In the live scene, experience is huge. Look at guys like Doyle Brunson or Jen Harmann, they have been crushing the absolute biggest nosebleeds games you can find in the world for a freaking decade: the mixed games that runs regurarly at Bellagio/Bobbys room.

Being good at live games is so so much more than technical correct game or GTO, the nuances and different skillsets you need to succeed goes far beyond that. Look at at guy like Antonio Esfandiari as an example, who is a genius when it comes to pleasing the whales and being fun to play with. There is countless of better technical poker players than him in the world who can only dream of getting a seat in the juicy private home games he gets into.

Also this, excellent post.

Once again, you have no idea what you are talking about. Doyle Brunson and Jen Harmann would get absolutely eviscerated by guys like Andrew Robl, Tom Dwan, Garrett Adelstein, Jason Koon etc. that are all under the age of 35.

Skill trumps experience on the felt.

Maybe in terms of longevity as a pro, learning from countless years of failures and missteps are helpful but that has nothing to do with your ability on the felt.

I’m trying Rick. Thanks for pointing that out.

You’re right about the importance of factoring in villain tendencies , but approaching spots with that mindset seems like a good way to never progress and rationalize poor decision making as I was saying earlier.

As you can never be wrong when letting subjective factors influence your decision making.

RTP: your comments on the flop play piqued my interest.

Do you mind explaining what you think the correct flop c-bet sizing is here? I understand the downbet logic HU, but multi-way I was thinking OP's up-sizing was better. I'd love your thoughts here because this is a pretty common, yet tricky, spot for us with the top end of our range.

Thanks!

Sure! Thanks for asking.

I haven’t done any work on this specific spot but I believe the best flop c-bet sizing is between $20-30. I probably go $25.

Some obvious positives of betting larger would be that we are 3 ways and want to extract max value with the strongest range.

But on Q-T-3r vs a tight passive and a villain with a tendency to float flop wide we should size accordingly. We block the main SD in KJ (as V may have called all 16 combos of that pre if we had AA) and both V’s are likely folding all the offsuit combos of J9 pre.

So apart from 4 combos of J9 this is a rare texture where there aren’t very many floats to a 2/3 sizing (after rake). The tight passive in the BB is going tto fold all his A-highs and potentially even small pocket pairs that are way behind us. The Main V will likely fold all his A highs.

With a 1/3 sizing main V will most likely continue with a lot of junk increasing the profitability of bluffcatching turn and river for stacks with a one pair hand.

Earlier you posted "There’s a reason why all the cool kidz downbet this texture as the PFR." then failed to elucidate us on what those reasons were. Then in the above you admit you haven't worked on this spot, admit betting smaller loses value vrs these player types, assume v's don't have offsuit combos of J9 for no reason whatsoever (in fact its contrary to the player description).

Your one argument for the smaller size otf is so that you can bluffcatch turn on villain donks which you argued against expecting earlier in the thread. Also im not sure if you have followed but seats are open every day to the public in Bobbys room while good players are not invited to Garrets game. Just saying.

I don't understand the point of this post. Instead of going out of your way to try and discredit my arguments, why don't you just come up with your own?

It's not a competition for who comes up with the most correct answer. I am a terrible poker player. I'm just sharing my viewpoints, that Spanishmoon was curious for me to elaborate on fwiw.

It doesn't seem like you're trying to discuss this spot with me so there's no point in expressing your dissent this way.

We don’t have Kc though which is very nice, since I’d expect the KJ combo most likely to do this is KcJc


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With KK I would call turn 20% and raise 80%. AA needs less protection so that would be a better flatting candidate. Given your history I would start raising his leads with lots of draws and strong hands, to punish his high frequency of non-nuttish hands that can't call down.

OTR I would just have to pay and see it... Against these types of players they are so capable of bluffing with the random hands you described before. Your Probably good around 50% of the time. Your going to be shown Qx at decent frequency but as they say "That's poker folks" and in the long run he's obviously going to be losing.

I was initially on the shove turn train, and thought my turn play was a huge mistake, but Petrucci brings up a great point...If we shove, we fold out all of his bluffs that he's going to shove the river with, and he has quite a few considering he took this line with T8.

I agree, but flatting your entire range seems absurd. Need a mixed strategy here of folding, calling, and raising.

Usually AA is a better trap than KK for protection reasons. But as someone pointed out KK blocks the obvious draw of KJ and unblocks AQ. And I guess AA blocks AQ and unblocks KJ. So rethinking this AA is better raise on turn and KK better flat. So... you played it perfect haha.

So you called river and he had T8o?

He had T 8, but still he presumably has a lot of button clicking bluffs that have 11%ish equity versus us.

Because he's never shown a sign of ever shutting down on the river, wouldn't it be best to just flat our entire continuing range, except for draws?

I like shoving with draws because we have a lot of FE because of how many pairs he's turning into bluffs. Someone like that will probably never pick up on our raise/flat patterns. What do you think?

Makes sense against that type of opponent, but I still would mix in some value raises to balance it out a tad. Especially if you have a candidate that wants max value/ protection on the turn.

Was this guy value betting or bluffing?

Or was he just betting because you check therefore he bet? Guessing the latter.


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How many value owning combos does he have to have for us to profitably call?

I did not x river; he was oop. He was bluffing though; he was very reluctant to roll his hand.

For some reason I thought you had checked flop. I misread.

Yeah he’s just an idiot and I love when people lose a much bigger pot than they had to for taking this ridiculous check-call Donk line.


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thanks for the laugh, needed that !