TL;DR!!!!
Look. I know this is a beginners forum so many do not think like this, but most hand histories should be thought of in a very straightforward
mechanical way. All of the typical "what should I do" "oh you should do this" is just huge noise.
I'll focus on flop and river.
Here is me
fixing your op:
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordRiverRat
Villain (BB): 30s white guy, aggressive reg who plays 5/10 ($950)
Hero (MP): mid 20s Asian, TAG image ($1300)
Hero opens $20 with KK. Fish on BTN calls and BB calls.
Flop: T73 ($57)
Checked to hero who bets $40. BTN folds and villain makes it $120...
I have made 3 categories of flop check raising ranges for villain. I'd like to poll to see which category you think his range will be based on description and common player tendencies, and also ask that you add/subtract based on anything else I'm not thinking of.
Range 1 (Tight):
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
TT,77,33,9s8s,9h8h | 81.25% | 8,848 | 0 |
KdKc | 18.75% | 2,042 | 0 |
Range 2 (Medium):
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
TT,77,33,9x8x,5x6x | 62.06% | 10,444 | 0 |
KdKc | 37.94% | 6,386 | 0 |
Range 3 (Aggro):
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
TT,77,33,9x8x,5x6x,4x5x,Jx9x,Qx9x,QxJx | 39.31% | 12,844 | 0 |
KdKc | 60.69% | 19,826 | 0 |
Pot is $217 and $80 for me to call, so $217:$80 or 2.7:1, so I need ~27% equity to continue on the flop
I don't plan on folding flop, but still would like input on whether you think a reasonable range is a 1/2/3 here and how we should proceed.
So you see, this way you create what is called a sensitivity analysis. We can all give "correct" answers based on each range, add or subtract from ranges, etc. There is not one single answer. The answer is a spectrum depending on variables. To know the answer we must understand the spectrum.
Once you've done this enough, and put in enough volume, these scenarios become second nature. I know that on an open ender rainbow flop I have ~25% equity vs. only sets and the suited open ender combos.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
TT,77,33,9x8x | 74.18% | 9,547 | 0 |
KdKc | 25.82% | 3,323 | 0 |
I also know that I'd rather bluff catch with JTs here, for the reasons Minatorrr mentioned. Do you know how big the difference is? Guess before your spoiler.
I also know live player tendencies, and their tendency is to call WAY too much and to only show aggression with the nuts. This changes slightly as you move up, you see "better" aggression and you also see more button clicking.
But the truth is that most at this level would be better served if they bet folded everything but the nuts or huge nut draws.
In my first post I was originally going to say "either this shouldn't be a post or you should make a ridiculous fold on the flop" and what I would have meant by that is that results confirmed a range
* or that we should stick with bolded above and just assume they always have it until proven otherwise
**
*results can be important. People misunderstand "don't be results oriented" It doesn't mean to ignore that villain showed up with Q
9
(or whatever) here. That is actually really important. We now know he check raised
Range 3 and therefore we should basically never fold to him again.
**this is really important. Once you have data that confirms a looser range (either from showdown or from noticing their frequencies (high check/raising freq. for example), then you can adjust. But these guys will make up like 5-10% of your pool below 5/10. Everyone else just
PLAYS SUPER FACE UP AND TELLS YOU WHAT THEY HAVE. Its insane really. They just do.
Just the other day I opened AA 4x utg and mp tight player called. Flop 223r. I half pot he insta 5x raises. Guess what he had. A4/5s? NOPE. 45s? NOPE. Weird value raise with QQ? NOPE. He had 33 because of course he ****ing had 33 he ****ing told me so when he 5x raised flop no matter how terrible that is.
Remember this adage for live poker <5/10:
Aggression is strength.
As for river, we can call flop, and fold on unchanged turns, and call turns and fold on unchanged rivers. This is because of frequencies.
So say for example he did check raise
range 3 on the flop:
Range 3 (Aggro):
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
TT,77,33,9x8x,5x6x,4x5x,Jx9x,Qx9x,QxJx | 39.31% | 12,844 | 0 |
KdKc | 60.69% | 19,826 | 0 |
On the turn, he's not betting 100% of this range. Well, if he's bad he might. It would look like this:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
TT,77,33,9x8x,5x6x,4x5x,Jx9x,Qx9x,QxJx | 30.72% | 419 | 0 |
KdKc | 69.28% | 945 | 0 |
But a "good" player does not continue with 100% of his flop check raising range. He's betting portions of it at certain frequencies. Say a "good" player gives up most of his non-club non gutshots.
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
TT,77,33,9c8c,4c5c,5c6c,Qc9c,Jc9c | 66.48% | 351 | 0 |
KdKc | 33.52% | 177 | 0 |
So you see we have to think about his range and how it narrows and what his equity is and what rivers improve him etc. etc.
This means there are times when we can call turn but fold river even when it is a blank. Because his turn betting range is wider than his river betting range. So the phrase "if you call turn you have to call river" is grossly misused.
Taking a look at the river:
We are getting pot odds of $1337:$580, or high level a little better than 2:1 (which is all you need to do) We need to be good ~30% of the time.
If he's a bad player, who check raised
Range 3, and then barreled 100% of it on 3 streets, we have a really easy call:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
TT,77,33,9x8x,5x6x,4x5x,Jx9x,Qx9x,QxJx | 36.67% | 11 | 0 |
KdKc | 63.33% | 19 | 0 |
Vs. a better player, its a fold, as he's dropped a lot from his range, and 5
6
got there:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
TT,77,33,9c8c,4c5c,5c6c | 80.00% | 8 | 0 |
KdKc | 20.00% | 2 | 0 |
Disclaimers
-This is all super high level. We could say that villain 3bets TT a portion of the time pre, flat calls sets a portion of the time post, etc. This would weaken his flop check raising range bc it removes some of the set combos.
-I wouldn't fold flop. Especially to a 5/10 player who looks bored and showed down Q6. But I also consider myself an above average player and am fully prepared for each turn based on card/timing/sizing. Most aren't, and therefore should fold flop. It not as big a mistake as many would think.
-this is 2008 poker. This isn't thinking about GTO and what portions of our range we should fold/continue with on flop/turn/river based on sizing. Bc that is a waste of knowledge in regards to live poker.
-I'm tired. There's a lot more to it than this (and I was very one directional in a lot of this also), and there may be errors in above.
Cliffs:
FOLD EVERYTHING BUT THE NUTS TO AGGRESSION UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE
peace