Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
2/5 - KJs bluff 2/5 - KJs bluff

02-09-2015 , 09:25 AM
Reads: Middle aged white guy who is a complete unknown. He's been at the table for like 30 minutes with nothing strange noticed w/ him. My image is normal TAG if he's paying attention.

UTG (very very loose pre flop and LAG post flop) limps, another loose player limps. I make it 25 with KJ in the CO. Villain calls in the SB, both limpers call.

Flop: 952. Checks around. Turn:

Turn: 9523. Villain bets 65 into 100 leaving him with ~220 left and I cover. I'm the only caller.

River: 9523A. Villain checks. Hero bluffs? Line check up until here welcome too. I'll just note that pre flop I'd just limp if the limpers were really tight but felt conditions were good enough to raise. Flop I guess can be a c-bet but my read on the two limpers were they were loose post flop and would continue with any pair. Turn I realize can be either a fold shove or call. I realize calling with a plan of playing "make a hand poker" on the river is probably only marginally +EV if +EV at all...figured I've got like 12 outs on average and am getting almost 3-1 on the turn + some implied odds (for the flush, maybe not the J or K).
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 09:34 AM
Might work but have to bet big out shove. Any weak **** is getting snapped.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 10:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MK7749
Might work but have to bet big out shove. Any weak **** is getting snapped.
Yeah I was thinking a shove, which would be almost exactly a pot sized bet. Note we should be bluffing 33% of the time (if our 66% value hands are never beat) to prevent him from exploiting us in the long term with his bluff catchers. Also note that if the bluff works more than 50% of the time, it's profitable.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 11:13 AM
Pre and flop are fine. The turn probably is a fold/shove situation. We're not getting good enough odds to just call. As played, the river Ah is a great bluffing card after villain's check. There is so much for villain to fear that he'll have a hard time calling with anything but a flush. We're not winning any showdowns. Fire away.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 11:31 AM
Eh, borderline river decision. You aren't repping a flush (would've cbet the flop with hearts) and you aren't repping the 4 as a tag pfr. So you're basically trying to fold him off his one-pair hands and his missed draws.

A shove probably gets him to fold his 9x, 5x, 66, 77, 88 hands. And since a shove is ~a PSB, it doesn't entirely look like a bluffy overbet.

Still, there's a ton on that board that a bare ace would be worried about. I think if I'm going to bluff that I'd pause for a little while, let it look like I'm debating a check-behind, then bet something like $150 to fully sell the "yeah, he has an ace and was deciding whether it was any good" line.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 11:47 AM
Eh, borderline river decision. You aren't repping a flush (would've cbet the flop with hearts) and you aren't repping the 4 as a tag pfr. So you're basically trying to fold him off his one-pair hands and his missed draws.

A shove probably gets him to fold his 9x, 5x, 66, 77, 88 hands. And since a shove is ~a PSB, it doesn't entirely look like a bluffy overbet.

Still, there's a ton on that board that a bare ace would be worried about. I think if I'm going to bluff that I'd pause for a little while, let it look like I'm debating a check-behind, then bet something like $150 to fully sell the "yeah, he has an ace and was deciding whether it was any good" line.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 12:12 PM
I prefer just letting this hand go on the turn...as played, betting out a potsized river bluff all depends on how villain perceives you. If he hasn't seen anything out of the norm or any bluffs from you, then fire away...you got a decent card to bluff river. Villain will not give you credit for the flush though so he has to pretty much put you on Ax after calling the turn bet...this is villain dependent so make your read and go with it.

Last edited by OSUTexan; 02-09-2015 at 12:39 PM.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 12:28 PM
Behind two very loose passive limpers pre who are sticky postflop, I would prefer to overlimp this hand instead of bloating a pot with a raise. This hand plays great multiway and you want to keep the SPR high. If you raise you aren't getting three streets of value from worse 1-pair hands, and you can't steal very often from these players.

I think flat calling turn even without steal equity is fine if you think you can get stacks in when you hit on the river. Since V seems to like his hand, and since the backdoor draw is more concealed I would think this is feasible.

How much is V thinking about our hand? I don't think we can credible rep hearts here since we didn't bet the flop. Even if V is a very weak level 1 thinker, when he bets into 3 people on the turn, A9 is damn near the bottom of his range there, and isn't folding top two+ on the river very often.

I dunno, it's read dependent of course but I think your options are to shove all-in on the river or fold, and I'm leaning towards fold mostly because we can't credibly rep the flush draw.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 01:05 PM
I think you would have had more fe if you would have semi bluff shoved turn.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wewa925
I think you would have had more fe if you would have semi bluff shoved turn.
that line doesn't make sense. What would you be repping after checking flop??
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 01:13 PM
How often are you checking flush draws on this board, seems unlikely. I don't think this bluff works often enough.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-09-2015 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by beauvanlaanen
How often are you checking flush draws on this board, seems unlikely. I don't think this bluff works often enough.
Some players would check a flush draw like KJhh on the flop. I don't think that's a good play, I'm saying it exists and villain can't assume hero would always cbet. I think a lot of low stakes players forget the pre and post flop action by the river and merely compare their cards to potential threats.

Betting around $150 on the river needs to work a little less than 40% of the time. Villain could fear a flush, any 4 for a straight, and aces up. The check-bet-check line indicates he has a worse hand than this. Hero probably loses almost 100% of the time he checks and should take a stab at winning the pot. It would be a real shame to check the river and lose to T9. I don't see the need to shove becaue villains calls a shove as often as a 2/3 pot bet. We save about $70 if villain check-raise shoves.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-13-2015 , 10:25 PM
Results: I shove, he calls with KQ to win.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-14-2015 , 12:12 AM
Horrible river check by villain. Maybe he had some kind of read that you would bluff? He's either a genius or an idiot. Probably an idiot
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote
02-14-2015 , 02:25 AM
Lol Eddie. Wtf are you talking about.
2/5 - KJs bluff Quote

      
m