2-5nl live
Hero tag 26 asian $800
V fishy white mid 30s $450
Not much of a read as hero just sat down 30 mins ago, but villian is playing about 40% of hands limping preflop. Also saw him raise a few pots preflop, but then went into passive postflop mode.


Anyways:

Utg straddles $10
Mp calls $10
Villian in HJ calls $10
Hero raises to $45 otb with JJ
Utg straddle calls $45
Mp calls $45
Villian limp raises to $145 total, and has $300 back.

Very weird limp raise by villian. Its $400 to win $580 assuming villian calls, seems standard to shove? Against a range of JJ+ i have 35% equity, but if we include TT, i have over 40%. Also i feel we can discount AA-QQ and weight ak more heavily since he limp raised in lp. If the villian was limp raising from ep and there wasnt so much dead money in the middle i think its an easy fold. But as it stands....
Hero?

Have you seen the same person straddle previously? Does this player raise his straddle if others only limp?

I would raise a bit bigger the first time. There's $37 in the pot when it gets to you, $47 with your call. I'd raise at least $40 more, so go $50-60.

AP, overlimp/rr is usually a medium PP, ime, but it is often overlimp/shove, not overlimp/leave a PSB back. I think his range is weighted heavily to 88-JJ and AK, with a bit of 55-77, AQ and QQ, and basically no KK/AA. I'd prob still shove. as overs OTF may kill your action against a fishy player. Of course, they may kill your hand too, but if we flat we're 100% committed, so that is less of an issue.

Seen a lot this, most likely shoving but its close. If stacks were deeper, I might flat.

If I were considering shoving pre, I might instead shove flop instead by merging range.

QQ+/AK aren't folding at this point, but a shove on flop could have some FE and turn our hand into a bluff.

But weight that against all the 88 ish hands that are going to feel committed pre but fold when overs hit post, and we'll see that we lose more value than we gain (assuming my ranging is correct).

Plus, we don't want AK to fold OTF if it misses, and this player prob would. If AK misses, it only has 25% equity, so getting a fold OTF costs us $150 in equity. Of course, that's rather disingenuous, since we're actually comparing it to shoving pre, and pre AK has 43.85% equity, so the theoretically lost EV of flatting and shoving flop is only $37. Still, $37 is $37. Plus the "we have to shove basically every flop, and shoving on ones that have an A or a K will suck donkey dong against the AK portion of his range" factor...

If you weigh other part of his range, specifically QQ - KK or even AK, we do not mind fold on flop given amount of dead money.

Something like this would be best calculated if we break down villain's range in this spot, then calculate our FE vs different part of that range, and then combine to evaluate how that compares to shoving pre.

Keep in mind that it really doesn't what the flop is because our decision point was pre-flop.

Yes. I think you're missing my point. Your suggestion was targeting QQ+ and AK, but 1) it targets AK poorly (by losing us $37 in EV and potentially by tilting us if we are prone to that) and 2) it targets medium PPs, which I have argued dominate his range, EXTREMELY poorly, by losing us a TON of EV, since we have huge amounts of FE OTF, and we DON'T WANT it.

You concentrated way too much on why I said that it targets AK poorly, and countered with your feel of how it targets QQ+, which is really not the point. As I said above, most of his range is medium PPs that will call a shove now because they might be flipping, but fold to overs OTF if we flat pre, losing us a boatload of EV.

I dont like the idea of flatting. It just creates a massive pot where we are pretty much commited, and there's a ton of overcards that can really kill my hand, or scare of villian if he has a smaller pair. I think the decision is either to shove or fold pre.

Well, clearly we have very different range assessment.

I am reading his range as TT+ and AK.

It's between shove or fold, can't really call with V so shallow. I think I would lean towards a fold, the limp reraise is generally strength at these stakes. I would like to see a bigger raise pre ($60-$70)

Against a range of TT+ /AK i would have 41.5% equity.

And
$400/ ($400+$580) = ~%41

Then you clearly didn't notice this in my first response to your "flat and shove all flops" line: emphasis added.

That range we find in my first post ITT: Very, very rarely will anyone overlimp KK or AA. They will often open-limp it and hope someone will raise, but they will very rarely overlimp it. A few players will overlimp QQ and then raise hoping to fold out AK or at worst flip with it, but not many. Your range is way too top heavy, imo.

This is a math exercise IMO, and I will have to do it later.

It is very standard to slow play KK+ in straddle pot expecting straddler to raise, FWIW.

Ive never really witnessed people slow playing big overpairs in LP hoping the straddler will raise. Open limp yes, but not lp overlimping.

Then my range assessment would be off for your hand.

And you just answered your own question about this hand.

Well i always appreciate other opinions or ideas. Just seems from a purely math pov, this is in all likelyhood, a shove

I came to this conclusion while tanking today in this spot, and shipped it. Villian had QQ.

I think you have an easy fold when the loose-passive player decides to reraise pre oop.

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I hate these spots and usually end up leveling myself into the "why would they limp QQ+ in late position, especially if they are young and Asian" thought process. Then I jam and get shown QQ/KK anyway. Couple days ago I'm playing $2/5 and just flat a $15 raise with JJ from SB, BB calls, UTG straddler makes it $115 with $380 effective. Folds back to me and I level myself into "why would he put in such a big raise with QQ+ when he should be going $60-85" and so I jam, he has KK. Don't level yourself, it's usually what it looks like and occasionally JJ/AK. The raise size in this hand looks a lot more like KK/AA though, rather than the overbet so they can commit themselves regardless of the flop that you would see more often with smaller pairs and AK/AQ. I'd probably just fold and move on.

And that's how you develop MUBS.

I'd fold.

We're facing a limp/3-bet from a passive player. He was probably expecting straddler to raise and has us crushed with a higher pocket pair.

If he shoved his 450 instead of making it 145 I might be leaning to a call, as I've seen fish limp/shove middle pairs sometimes.

All you can eat.

Yes this. Even tho overlimp with a premium doesn't make sense, this type of player just has it. And when you stack off with JJ they are going to be so proud of their sneaky play.

A passive player can have a premium here. Too many times players level themselves into thinking this is 88-TT all the time. Just fold.