V: fairly active. Can open a bit loose at times but nothing crazy. Opens to loose in early position in general but nothing crazy. Think he’s a pretty decent player. He thinks I’m better than I am probably.
He has 600

I cover

V: should have TAG image. V has run bad against me in the past

OTTH: folds to v who opens HJ to 15 I think cutoff calls others fold I make it 75 with JcJd v calls other guy folds

(160) flop 9c8s2c

I bet 55 he makes it 160. Idk really what to do here. Or thoughts on the sizing in general. Probably could just range check this but betting small can’t be bad. Being OOP sucks. I call the 160?

Turn 7s he jams for 365

Thoughts? Once he jams I hate it but feel like we are beat once we call the flop and he continues

Fold flop. You downbet and got raised on precisely the kind of board 2pair+ raises against a downbet. At worst he has NFD but we cant just fabricate a best case scenario based on absolutely nothing to justify shipping it.

I prefer cbetting more, we still have a good value hand that we don't wanna draw to raise us off of. I would just bet like 85 but a guy with a $600 stack who just flatted a $75 3bet pre probably isn't bluffing here so I would just fold.

I am kind of hating the flop and turn spots. Do you have any reads that he calls a lot of 3bets and bluff raises a lot? Because I can maybe think of as many bluffs as value as he can have on the flop, but a lot of the bluffs are things players might fold pre or just call on the flop in position. Straight draws and flush draws. So he might be more like 2 value combos to 1 combo of bluffs. He is going to have about 33% equity against you with his bluffs and you will have about 10% vs his value. You might have the direct odds to call the flop raise, but with the type of draws he has, he might just be jamming all turns. If that's the case, it is really like facing a jam on the flop, and you might have a case for folding the flop. But you have an overpair and backdoor potential, so I think you have a food case for calling flop.

Some of his bluffs got there on the turn (JT, 6c5c, 8c7c). So I kind of feel like folding here. I think we can still have ATc, KTc, QTc, QTs that can call here. We can fold our flush draws that aren't open ended as well. We can have AA, KK, QQ which are better calls. TT, especially no club, is also a decent calling candidate because you have a little more equity, but you could also be losing to JJ.

You block 2 combos of JTs but block AcJc, KcJc, QcJc. At equilibrium this is probably a call but I think vs someone who is more likely to be going with the intuitive bluffs, and even then not always raising them on the flop, I think we can just fold our hand on the turn.

Flop I think both bet or check is okay. Bet is nice because so many bad cards can come off on turn and river and he will be able to realize his equity fairly easily. The problem with betting is you probably never have the nuts here and are even behind a lot of his flop calls. Checking is nice because he is more likely to bet a worse hand for value like TT, T9, or a draw when you check than he is to raise bluffs (unless you know this villain loves to raise with semi-bluffs, as a fair amount of the population is going to call flop a lot with strong draws).

This is definitely not a range bet, more of a spot where you mix bet and check with a lot of overpairs and draws for around half pot. You're not super deep. You can get stacks in with 3 barrels never going more than half pot by river. And villain has more sets and 2 pair in his range on the flop.

Action preflop was raise(HJ)+call(CO) ... and we 3bet.

Robot ranges:

Live cash (100bb, no ante = PF3bet to ~$90):
JJ 3bet 100%
TT- call 100%
ATs/QTs/JTs call 100%
KTs 3bet 15-20%

Advanced cash (100bb = PF3bet to ~$50):
JJ 3bet 100%
TT 3bet 50%
ATs 3bet ~30%
KTs 3bet 100%
QTs 3bet 50%
JTs 3bet 100%


...so blah, maybe we have 4 combos of nuts and ~half the xTs hands ... or maybe almost none.

I don't think I bet small on flop, would be tempted to fold flop blocking all the draws unless I thought V was raising just because it was a small bet.

If we make it to the turn I think JJ is a better call than QQ, and probably better than KK.

Well he can still have QQ that beats JJ. If we have QQ, we could beat JJ. If we have KK, we can beat QQ and JJ. Some players just decide they are going with it if they have an overpair. With QQ especially, but also sometimes with JJ.

JJ is only blocking 2 value combos of JTs we lose to. So with KK with lose to 2 more combos of JTs, but beat 12 more combos of QQ and JJ? Still think I would rather have KK here, even if they don't always take that line with QQ and JJ. Still not loving life though.

Just checked with PPT and giving V a range of AA,KK,QQ,99,88,JxTx,AcTc,AcJc,AcQc (which seems close to worst case) on the board of 9c8s2c7s:

TT: 45.0502%
JJ: 35.6787%
QQ: 25.5742%
KK: 34.9866%
AA: 46.6495%

Calling the flop is the worst option IMO, you're oop in a big pot and villain's going to be able to really take advantage of his position on the turn. Once you call there's 480 in the pot and you have about 365 behind so folding is going to be tough. There's enough draws out there and you said he was reasonably aggressive so I'd rather just ship here than fold. I'd much rather have QQ than JJ but unfortunately I don't think there's a whole lot you can do b/c the pot is just so big pf

In general it’s fair but we probably are only getting called by better here?

Results: we fold

V is kind enough to show us 88

Idk if I would really do anything different. A lot of times a small bet looks weak and we expect to get raised a fair amount and get bluffed off of like AK or AQ etc

Once he jams turn can’t really think of many hands that I beat unless it’s a pure punt.

I don't think you're always getting called by better. You can get called by any flush draw, strait draws or combo draws. The take home message from my post isn't that shoving is correct, it's just that once he raises to 160, you've effectively got a decision to make for all your chips. You can fold if you think you're behind or ship if you think he can call w/worse. The pot is just too big at that point to call and play the rest of the hand oop

Those are not the equities I am getting vs that same range. Also, are you giving villain JTo? I wouldn't give them AA, KK, or JTo.

It really depends what you give villain though.

Here is an interesting mix: Value: 99, 88 98s, JTs, 6c5c, semi-bluff AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac5, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, 7c6c. Now defending equities are:

JTs: 75.8%
TT: 42.1%
AcTc: 40.6%
Ac5c: 39.3%
JJ: 37.8%
AcJc: 37%
Ac4c: 35.1%
AA no club 34.5%
KcTc: 33.4%
KK no club: 33.5%
QsTs: 31.8%
QQ no club: 31.7%
KK with club 28.7%
AA with club: 27.8%
QQ with club: 25.1%

The equity required to profitably call is 30.17%

Note, hands like AcQc, KcQc, AcKc, KcJc, QcTc, QcJc actually have less than the required equity because they block bluffs and/or are dominated by A high draws. But AcJc, AcTc, Ac5c, Ac4c are all profitable clubs because they dominate lower draws and/or unblock some bluffs. But you can take out some flush draws and add QQ no club and all of the sudden AA with a club is a good call and QQ is better than JJ. Probably better to put someone in a spot where he has to fold AA with a club though, as that is hard psychologically.

Also crazy that Ac5 is a call but AcKc and AcQc would be folds. That is something people might have a hard time figuring out in the moment.

Nah, most people are content with just taking the good odds you are laying them to see the next card. If you are balanced in this spot and downbet often then the risk of their bluff is not even worth it.