HJ is a hyper aggressive but very aware thinking LAG reg. The preflop dynamic between HJ and Hero has been very aggressive this session. Hero's light 3-bets have been 4-bet by the villain several times. There was an interesting hand where he 4-bet Hero with KJo and check/called down on KT682 vs Hero's TT.

HJ can credibly have all combos of AQ, AA and QQ whereas Hero has partials. Are we over-folding if we let this go?

6 handed, $1,200 effective

Hero JhJc in BTN 2/5 live

HJ raises to $15, Hero raises to $50, HJ raises to $130, Hero calls

Flop ($267) QhQs2s
HJ checks, Hero checks

Turn ($267) Jd
HJ checks, Hero bets $150, HJ calls

Turn ($567) As
HJ checks, Hero bets $215, HJ raises to $930 ALL IN

I’d over bet this turn to get value from his AQ, AA and nfds. But let’s address the crux of the problem.

When the As hits otr, we know he had no nfds. This condenses his range to AQ/Aa or spaz like KsTs/Js. There’s no QJs combos left. There’s only 2 AQs and 3 Aa.

Perhaps it comes down to whether we think this V can 3b AQo oop. Since he already did it with KJo, I suppose the answer is yes. That’s a lot more combos.

So at the risk of becoming a case study for Zeebo’s Theorem that no hero can fold a full house, I’m calling it off here even though the combinatorial analysis suggests he’s more nutted than bluffy when As hits on the river. Thanks m resting my dubious analysis on the flimsy reed that I don’t think he’d be capable of checking a wet board twice with AQo.

Easy call for me. You beat a lot of Qx and all flushes.

yep, I'm not folding this here to that villain as described.

also betting bigger on turn and river

This is a super tough spot. KTss,KJss,KQcc,KQdd,KQo(8 combos) are really the only hands I can see that are legit and we beat. We lose to QQ(1),AQ(6),AA(3). He cant have QJs so we beat 12 combos and lose to 10 combos. 715 to win 1712 so 41%, and given we beat more combos than we lose to we should call.

That being said, in game I would probably go for a live read and start up a convo, try to get him to talk check his breathing patterns etc. Simply because the flush got there he might not play KQo this way and that's really the chunk of hands we beat. Without it, this spot becomes much closer to a fold. Did he seem really nervous? Any voice crackling when he said allin? Was his heart jumping out of his chest?

I don't think that he has any Qx hands even as a LAG player and most people would call with a flush instead of turning it into a bluff.

It's a super tough spot. Very tough to let go, in game I call, but I think this spot with a x/raise is seriously underbluffed and probably it's a losing play.

Ya, there’s almost no way V has a flush here. Even if he specifically has KJss or K10ss here I doubt he’s jamming them OTR that often in a 4! pot on this runout.
I probably puke call here because I do see this as overfolding to let it go, but I bet he has AA here often the way flop/turn/river was played.

Given the KJ vs TT X/C down, I'd call here.

My initial thought on the turn sizing was smaller. To those who advocated larger, curious as to why? Inelastic spot?

Call.
To those counting combos he can easily turn Ax into a bluff (AxKs would be perfect)

You bet this sizing on the river to induce right? Would bet turn larger as well. Generally you want to be shoving river yourself here on a lot of cards.

Results: Hero called and villain had KsKd.

Made the sigh call within about a minute and villain berated me for making it. Puke spot but my thinking is if we fold this not sure what else we can have here to defend. Good to see you all agree.

V sounds like an idiot.

V's a jerk/sore loser but putting that aside, V knows you don't have AA (would have re-raised pre flop most likely), don't have KK (V has KK and you didn't re-raise pre), don't have a Q (a Q would be unlikely to check flop with flush draw), don't have nut flush. So maybe V convinces himself that you can't be too strong. But V blocks a lot of your bluffs/semi bluffs (AK, KJ) and your river bet looked value heavy. Therefore, V's CRAI was suicidal, especially given that a boat involving an A or Q would virtually never check the river for fear of missing value.

Super easy call vs opponent described.

Villian is not very aware. What the villain "knows" is that in LLSNL many people will fold everything except the nuts to pressure. However, he doesn't seem to understand that when his "victim" is fighting back, it is usually with a good hand. He hasn't mastered the skill of backing off. Nor is he capable of adjusting as it should be clear to him that he doesn't want to target the one player at the table that seems to have figured out his play.

I doubt a good player would do this