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2/5 i turn a good draw but villain leads.. 2/5 i turn a good draw but villain leads..

05-25-2010 , 02:42 AM
2/5
300 effective

villain limps after a weak player limps utg. i raise hj to 25 w/ KhJh and villain calls.

pot ~60 flop: [5h 5s Ad]

vill chk calls 30

turn ~120 [5h 5s Ad Th]

vill leads 35..

reads: villain isn't much for limping. he had limp rr 55 utg an orbit ago and showed after winning pf. other than that he hardly limps anything and is 10x more likely to raise a bunch of limps than limp behind.

my image: solid and tight. vill probably views me as competent and decent and unlikely to bluff him since we're acquaintances.

my thoughts:

good flop to cbet, he folds a ton of stuff.

if he's leading here for value - 5x is unlikely. i don't think he's going to be limping 54 or 56 from ep very often. he raises AJ+ pf but could have AT and A5 is unlikely to be in his ep limp range but maybe it is. 55 is certainly possible but AA is probably not.

if he's leading here as a blocker/finder-outer bet - A2s-A9s (excluding A5s) could all be leading here.

i don't think he's taking this line as a bluff. he'd probably just c/r the flop if he wanted to bluff.
2/5 i turn a good draw but villain leads.. Quote
05-25-2010 , 03:02 AM
You mention he's not taking this line as a bluff, so this is a really obvious call to me. You have great pot odds to draw (folding is out of the question), and you pretty much never have the fold equity on an A-high board to get any of his value hands to fold. So, call. Simple.
2/5 i turn a good draw but villain leads.. Quote
05-25-2010 , 03:09 AM
Not sure what you're asking for here. You're easily priced in to call with your NFD. You already know he probably doesn't have a 5. If you're beat with any heart or Q on the river, it's a cooler.

Excuse me, but I've had three drinks in an hour here. What's the question?
2/5 i turn a good draw but villain leads.. Quote
05-25-2010 , 03:24 AM
does no one raise this turn to get him to fold out his marginal hands since his value range is so small in comparison to his marginal range?
2/5 i turn a good draw but villain leads.. Quote
05-25-2010 , 04:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DontRaiseMeBro
does no one raise this turn to get him to fold out his marginal hands since his value range is so small in comparison to his marginal range?
Yes and I likely bet more on the flop too something like $45-$50. I have a sneaky suspicion that he is leading here because of the tiny flop bet thinking you were making a weak c-bet and were giving up on the hand expecting you to fold to any bet.

The only thing that bugs me here is you two know each other... Any chance he is just being nice and not raising or betting you hard here?
2/5 i turn a good draw but villain leads.. Quote
05-25-2010 , 05:00 PM
This is an Ace or a 5 nearly always. The flop is drawless and unless he knows you raise light-ish, he most likely is not continuing with some PP, barring any reads. A turn raise can, in theory, blow a reasonable player off an Ace, but in practice never seems to work vs most typical players since they'll talk themselves into a call.

Call and valuetown river if you hit.
2/5 i turn a good draw but villain leads.. Quote
05-25-2010 , 07:11 PM
I probably just call here
2/5 i turn a good draw but villain leads.. Quote
05-25-2010 , 07:17 PM
Call here is great odds
2/5 i turn a good draw but villain leads.. Quote

      
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