Quote:
Originally Posted by whorasaurus
Problems with your analysis:
The range you are hoping to extract value from with a call sure isn't that big. Really, just 3 hand combos, AK, KQ, and KJ. KT is going to stack off for 100 BB here.
I don't understand why you think they (the 1pr hands) are going to make some massive mistake OTT. Calling 40 doesn't guarantee in any way some EV explosion on the turn. In fact, it's likely the opposite--half the deck will shut down your action OTT. Any heart, A,Q,J,T,9 will prompt a c/f line from most players who haven't improved.
You're facing five other hands with no reads. IMO live players are much MUCH more likely to make a bigger mistake overvaluing a draw than a 1pr hand. Just raise and watch the player with the NFD call and squirm when the turn bricks.
Is the glass 1/2 full or 1/2 empty? (1/2 the deck hurts you or helps you?) Again, this is my POV in this EXACT spot. Consider all factors here.. not just that we flopped a set multi-way. We have a table full of deep stacks who have been playing all night on a Sat. night and there's a lot of dead money in the middle - thats chum in the water to aggression behind us. I don't always slow play sets, but I don't like playing them ABC every time either. In this exact spot, I like a flat to such a smallish open bet.
By raising, you're playing your hand face up, IMO - you're allowing them to play correctly. By raising the guys with KQ/KJ/KX usually cannot continue and especially so if they are between us and the original bettor. By flatting we're giving them rope. It might not be an "EV explosion", but it's a
chance for a mistake that we take away if we raise to $150 OTF. A reasonably avg. thinking player between myself and the donk-bettor OTF with just the nut flush draw has a tough spot if we raise and he really cannot just flat the raise or continue. You can argue whether or not that's a bad thing I suppose. I think when they muck a loser and we get 0 value, it's bad.
Just because there's a draw out there, doesn't mean someone has it. There's not always monsters under the bed. I'd like to see some calculations about EV based on decisions here including possible villain hands. Are we losing value here by forcing them all out? Or is winning without having to sweat 2 cards the way to go? Run the dream scenario, 2 players show up with K 10 and 2 with flush draws, effectively holding each others outs. We're 62% against that range - that's huge for a 5 way pot. Give 2 players a King (not K10) and 2 players a flush draw, we're now 75%.