2-5nl

Villain is a competent Middle Aged Russian guy. He plays a little bit on the snug side, but he may be on a bit of tilt and has had to buy back in a few times. He views hero as a terrible LAG (he may not be wrong). Villain has 700, hero covers

Preflop, Villain makes it 15 from UTG+1 (he does this with his entire opening range), 2 callers, I call from BB with Q10

Pot is 55

Flop is 998

Checked to villain, he bets 20, folded to me, I call.

Pot is 95
Turn is J

I check, he bets 20 again, I c/r to 75, he insta calls and flips over 66 thinking the hand is over. It's explained that the hand isn't over, he turns his cards back over, and the river is dealt.

Pot is 245
River is 3

How much do we bet?

Shove. Seriously. Been in this situation twice that I remember - first time guy exposed 3rd pair and called my 1.5x pot shove on a relatively scary board after I triple barrel shoved (I had air). Second time guy exposed second pair and called my 2x pot shove (I won). They just hate to fold when they're in this spot....if they do they're probably folding vs any reasonable bet size so just pile it in and pray.

A lot.

Don't swing for the fences.... Swing for the upper deck.

He knows you know his hand. Anything valuey is perceived as doubly valuey. So you need him to hero your bluffs. All the reasons he called your turn raise are still in play with the river brick with the addition of him leveling himself now.

absolutely shove

grunch. Shove all day.

This.

He insta called a check raise with 4th pair on that board, tank and wager all of your cylindrical pieces

FYP

55. Everything that does not get called is giving away free money

edit: or instashove and stare at him intently. if you really want to get reverse-telly, take 20 seconds to stack your chips into perfectly straight towers and then slowly shove the stack not only over the line, but angled towards V.

If you had a worse hand and wanted to get him to fold, [how much] would you bet?

He views you as a terrible lag and he knows that you know he has a pair. I'd shove and expect him to level himself into calling.

+1 for shove and hope he levels himself into a call.

Yup. Shove.
But think about it for a bit first.

Everyone really thinks shoving for about 600 into about 250 is the right play?

This deserves more love.

Here's my thinking on the matter. This is a case of he knows that we know that he knows situation. If we bet small, like 100, that screams value, and he could correctly fold. If we shove, I'm nervous that he may just read that as I have the best hand 100% of the time, so might as well shove (1st level thinking). I think a pot size bet is a good bet in this situation. It's large enough to try and "scare" him away from the pot, but not a shove where he can painfully fold his bluff catcher. I think we get called more than twice as frequently with a pot size bet than a shove, though I can't put the exact numbers on it.

I don't think so. If he can talk himself into calling $245 then he'll do it for twice that much because he's bluff catching and a shove is way more often a bluff than $245.

Let's say you DIDN'T have 66 beat. What would you do then? I would advocate for jamming. Therefore I like jamming here when we have it. Take the bluffiest line and make V's mistake as expensive as possible.

Otherwise you can shruggingly toss in a green bird and expect to get called 95% of the time. Do we think V's call $600 5% of the time here, which is enough here to exceed our +$25 EV alternative? I think so.

That only matters if you find yourself in this same spot 100 times. Since this will probably be the only time this happens to hero in the next 5000+ hours, how about we bet something we are kind of sure he will call THIS time.

I vote for $300.

60, try to get the crying call.

Whenever someone advocates for balance in certain live spots all I can think of is this. +10000 to this

Shove river ainec. The likelihood of him calling your river bet probably is not inversely related in a linear fashion to the amount you bet; he calls the shove often enough to be more +ev than other bets.

That being said, shoving is higher variance.

Aw cmon guys. Now you're devolving into straight fish think.

He may not call the shove this time but if he does on average enough hen it's the +EV play. It doesn't really matter how many more times it comes up. It's either better or worse than a small bet. The only thing that can change is meta game and that's not relevant in this moment. So, pick the highest EV line for this time. Don't go after calls. Go after money.

Thanks for the replies guys. In the moment I decided to bet big, but not all in. I chose $215. He thought for about 10 seconds and then tossed in the call.

Nice, but you left $400 on the table. Whales gonna whale.