The bolded is the rub. It isn't a flip because there is a ton of potentially dead $ in there that we scoop when everyone folds. The real Q here is what range do you assign to CO when he 3! almost 7x a nit open? I think it is really wide because he knows the nit is going to fold almost 100% of his range in that spot. So we take advantage of that and if we are wrong, the only hand we really hate to see is AA.

I am not saying it is a fistpump shove by any means and live reads certainly play a role. But I am surprised at how many have said "insta fold" as I think it is a pretty good spot for a 4! ship.

I don't disagree, I thought I even emphasized that if you have those live reads then you can go for it with the expectation that it is a higher variance play and it's for your whole stack. CO could also have a hand like AK and be happy to scoop, which would cut into our equity if the nit is holding QQ or whatever. Unless you can show me how this is solid +EV, my point is if you dont have strong reads or dont play a high volume of hours either play is fine. I assume more serious grinders and pros are ripping it in much more frequently based on reads.

I’d rip it cuz we’re not deep and a cold 4bet from SB is super strong, but nit open and large 3bet are reasons to consider the alternative.

Do weak/tight women play differently than weak/tight men?

Can you define the differences between a tight Asian/Black/Native American, European, Middle Eastern, etc.

Isn't a loose fish a loose fish, or are they special when they're Black?

Is there a reason we don't care what race the CO & Hero is?

Back to the weak/tight woman: does it not matter what race she is? I'm willing to bet the 3 in the hand, for which we don't know their races, are all white, amirite?

If that is the case, we have a lot of info on Hero & how he plays against people against Vs of various races & there is a good chance they also know.


Rippin' it here sounds like fun. We all know how minorities & women fear aggressive white men, as they've been the superior race for so long & we've seen them run over minorities at the table all the time. Amirite?

I guess I don't view this as a pure "what's my equity versus their ranges" spot. IMO, unless someone holds KK+, you are going to win this pre a HUGE % of the time. And for me it has much more to do with the stupid 3! raise size vs the open. I just don't think that is for value given who made the initial raise (nit). And given that we have blockers to both AA/KK, it is less likely someone has those hands and if I can get through the nit, I think CO folds everything BUT AA/KK (which I doubt he has because of his sizing).

Anyway, would have been nice to find out what they had.

OP, did the nit call the $135?

Concerning the bolded part: 1. KK+ is 6 combos & QQ/AK is 18 combos, so V has us crushed 25% of the time and we have 44% equity vs. QQ 25% of the time, when his range is QQ+/AK. That's 50% of the time we are either WB or on the weak side [by 12%] of coin-flip.

2. 1/3NL - $6 straddle 1 caller I make it $25 in the LJ. Button [a very studious 30 yr old] makes it $115 with KK. He started with KK & I cover. I would think a raise to $115 isn't looking for a caller.

Spoiler:
For those who are asking, everyone folded to the CO.


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How is folding AK pre to a cutoff squeeze (and bet sizing tell) the standard play here? But lets ship AKs....? The value of AKs vs AKo comes from barrelling potential and not equity gained when AI.

Sizing feels like he doesn't want to see a flop (TT-QQ, AK), so I think a jam is +EV especially if he folds AK which is very possible.

The situation is a tight utg+1 open. That changes everything.

As for AKs, we do this as a way of artificially reducing our overall AK combos from our 4bet range, which of course strengthens that range.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

1,006,834,752 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QQ+,AK	47.10%	346,001,508	256,477,788
KK+,AK	52.90%	404,355,456	256,477,788

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

575,334,144 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QQ+,AK	36.55%	171,260,616	78,013,452
KK+,AxKx	63.45%	326,060,076	78,013,452

Looks like a bad time to bluff off your stack. Good fold.

I shove here against the described player, a reg who is currently on a downswing. Thought process being a reg is prob willing to 3-bet wider than a novice. Also, if he's tilting a little, maybe he makes a big mistake against a shove.

Other considerations are that you block AA/KK and the original raiser's range as well as 3-bettors ranges will have a lot of Ax/Kx type broadway cards that will block AA/KK from each other.

Even if you run into KK, you're only a 2:1 dog putting $465 into a $175 pot. So you're losing around $155 of EV when called by KK but if he folds you have $175 of EV. I think he'll fold AK enough here to allow your $175 fold equity to overcome the times you run into KK. AA is bad but that's only 3 combos out of at least 21 in his range so it'll only happen like 14% of the time so $465*0.14 is -$66 EV. Not that disastrous if you also win the $175 when you push out JJ/QQ.

Against OMC I fold here, but against a reg who might be tilting I think it's a decent spot to jam. High variance play though and I don't fault you for finding a fold given UTG+1 has been playing so snug. Close spot for sure. Would be easier if AKs.

EDIT: Not to mention that someone on here earlier mentioned folding KK to a raise like this and I've seen people do it before. If we get even a little fold equity from KK, we're printing with a shove.

Really easy fold. Jamming is pretty bad

Rationale? The 3-bettor has already blasted off in 4 or 5 big pots and lost. Could be tilting. The opener is very tight and is likely folding their entire range other than AA and maybe KK to our 4-bet. I can envision all these scenarios as highly probable:

V1 opens to $20 w/JJ, V2 3-bets to $135 w/AK, we jam and both fold.

V1 opens to $20 w/AQs, V2 3-bets to $135 w/QQ, we jam and both fold.

V1 opens to $20 w/QKs, V2 3-bets to $135 w/A5s, we jam and both fold.

V1 opens to $20 w/TT, V2 3-bets to $135 w/AK, we jam and both fold.

V1 opens to $20 w/KK, V2 3-bets w/AQs, we jam and both fold.

There’s plenty more scenarios like this. We’re very rarely crushed by aces here. Look at all those scenarios and how in every one of them at least one player has an ace. Not saying it couldn’t be aces, but even if he’s only 3-betting QQ+/AK, aces is only 14% of that range. My guess is his range is wider given he’s been mixing it up in big pots.

UTG + 1 hasnt played a hand in a single hour, and is raising from UTG + 1. Small sample size but his range should be pretty strong here, 99+, AQo+, AJs+ at the very minimum. Possibly even tighter, which i wouldnt be surprised at.

The reg should know this and unless he hates money, he shouldnt be spazzing here at a decent frequency. I’d say he even flats JJ at some frequency, so his 3b range is probably JJ+, AQo+, with some 5-10% spaz possibly.

Your scenarios are way too optimistic. Very few people will ever fold KK preflop 100bb deep, and against KK our equity is terrible. Plus against a tilting reg, i dont think he folds QQ > 40% of the time and he calls of with JJ at a decent freq as well. A lot of players are not folding AK after they 3b and get shoved on or 4b either, and definitely not AKs

The reg’s 3b sizing is so large too, so when we cold 4b or jam, he’s getting a much better price than if he squeezed to std $80-$90. And usually when people squeeze this big, they tend to have stronger hands. And when people squeeze bigger, we are allowed to fold more of our range and defend less.

It’s not like OR is loose and reg 3bets him, this completely changes it and is a std cold 4b or cold 4b ship.

"The reg should know this"

This is where your argument severely breaks down. Most people aren't that good. And even those that are, aren't the same after dumping 5 buy ins in one sitting.

When someone's in gambool mode, 76s looks like aces.

Doesnt change the fact he wont be folding JJ+ or AK anywhere near a decent frequency getting a much better price to call than squeezing smaller than $135.

That’s not the entire basis of my post, either. That’s just one factor that leans it more towards a fold. Even if we took that part out of him being a “reg” or my assumption he has half a brain here, this should still be a fold

lol we're not 4 betting because we're trying to get JJ+ to fold. We're 4 betting because the frequency of worse hands he has here is a lot higher than you think.

The tight player, who hasn't played a hand in a hour, is the one who raised to $20. No way is he going to make it any more than that with QQ+. He'd fear folds all around.

FOLD<<<<ALL-IN<<<<you have no other choices IMHO.

I have a ZERO % frequency of playing this hand; I'm not folding because of CO's raise, I'm folding because of UTG+1's open, plus the fact that my only play is all-in.

DISCLAIMER: I have played 1400hrs+ over the last 12 months & am not winning 10BBs+, so I am not a Crusher.

I strongly agree with the logic of Mr Spy.

You're acting as though getting called by JJ is a terrible result for us. I vehemently disagree. If you get called by JJ here, you're losing at worst 16BBs of EV, could be less depending on suits. But if he folds, you win 31 BBs. So you only need to get a fold from JJ about a third of the time for it to be a profitable play and I def think you have more fold equity than that against JJ. Furthermore, think about what it does for your shoving range even if he does call...

Now the table will see that you are capable of having AKo here and even though this is the bottom of your shoving range in this spot, you can now get very profitable calls from JJ or QQ in the future when you make this same shove with your KK and AA hands. There's a reason why people correctly make hero folds with KK against OMC. His shoving range is this spot is only AA and KK...

Don't be an OMC, fight for these pots. Also, don't overvalue 20 hands of experience with a guy. You've said that you recognize 20 hands isn't a lot, but are you really playing like it? You're putting this guy on 99+/AJs+ due to this, but I can open wider than that and I've def had streaks where I've folded 20+ hands in a row. In fact, the times I open wider than that are usually when I've gone 20+ hands and my image is super nitty so I can open like 77 just to balance it out and have a lot of fold equity.

Also not sure that your logic is sound on the reg opening super tight because he should know the other guy is playing tight. If the reg thinks the other guy is playing overly tight, couldn't he 3-bet wider since he'd have more fold equity from the nit? I would think that logic would make much more sense than the guy thinking, "oh this opener is a nit, I better 3-bet my aces here."

I agree that this is an easy fold if the 3-bet is from an OMC, but I don't see that as the situation here.

Do appreciate your opinion Minatorr, it's possible that the games you sit in are more nitty and 3-bet ranges are always AA/KK. I've def seen some games like this before.

Lol.
I said we should be 4-betting to try to get JJ+ to fold []
There is only one player in the hand who can have a strong hand (“he”) []

I didnt necessarily say the reg is strong here because the OR is “tight” based off 20 hand sample. That’s one factor, but the main reason is that the squeeze is ridiculously huge. Ime huge 3bets/squeezes are much less likely to be A5s/QJs/SCs/bluffs. He could be doing this with AK to maximize fold equity or JJ/QQ cuz he doesnt want to get sucked out on by an ace.

If he’s a bad reg, yeah he’ll be 3-betting lighter vs a nitty guy opening in EP. 3-betting light vs nits is really bad, as they’ll just have a lot of strong hands to continue with despite the fact they fold so often in general. So even though they fold often in general, it usually doesnt hold true vs 3-bets or squeezes. Like if someone is opening only JJ+, AQo+, how often do you expect them to be folding vs a 3b? Not very often

I didnt say 3b ranges are only KK+ and big premiums. I just think the combined ranges here of the players are strong, and there is a non zero percent the cold caller did something ******ed like flat QQ/KK/AA/AKs pre and may even call off JJ vs a shove. It’s not a high %, but combined with everything else this is by no means a fistpump shove

I certainly dont think this is a hugely -EV spot when i said dont jam. It’s just unnecessary variance for a move that at the very best is slightly +EV, or breakeven. If you knew the EV here is 1-1.5bb i’d stll be folding because in reality bankrolls arent infinite, and you cant run this spot 1,000,000 times. Not only that. If you win the flip or suck out here or get a fold from both players, great. But if you get stacked here, you’re most likely going to steam a bit and start playing more badly, and losing most, all, or even more than the EV you expected from shoving here (assuming it’s +EV in the first place). We’re all human, not robots. Some will tilt more than others. That’s something to consider as well

Work on your check box game bruh