2/5 Evening table, FR, 100bb Buy-in

I'm well known in this room, much to my dismay. At the moment, my image is generally a tight player preflop, who loosens his range a little IP. The Villain in this hand is a little older than me, in his forties, an Asian male, who plays a tight, somewhat passive game. Recently, he's been playing 2/3 although he has been a 2/5 regular previously. We have substantial HH and generally he only continues postflop with strong holdings (e.g. TPTK/nut draws); I have barrelled him successfully in the past, as he's know for tank-folding turns and rivers, after peeling flops with TP or better.

This was only my second hand for the night, so my stack was just under $500, Villain has just under $400.

I'm dealt 99 in C/O. It's limped to me and I raise to $25. Villain on B/N calls, S/B calls and MP calls.

Flop
1094 ($105).

S/B and MP check, I bet $70. Villain on B/N contemplates a while and calls, S/B and MP fold.

Turn
10942 ($245)

What's the best course of action here? I'm first to act against a Villain with a tight continuation- range. Generally in this situation, the Villain has a made flush, A10, K10, or a Ax, possibly 109 and 44. There seem to be a number of options:

a) b/f
b) c/c
c) c/f
d) c/r

If I bet, what's the optimal sizing?

C) and then D)

If your gonna bet im thinkin something in the valuetown sizing like $100.

ch/call

You're not folding, whether check/call or leading turn is villain dependent, depending on how he plays a hand like JTx or if he even continued flop with a non club oesd like QxJx. If villain has the A, he isn't going to push you off with a massive turn bet. If you check turn, villain can make a huge mistake by betting something small like 90-100 with AX, to keep you in the hand, in which case you would be getting very close to expressed odds to continue.
IF he has a hand like JTx, then he isn't raising your turn lead. If you check turn, villain may spazz out or he may make a huge mistake by checking back or betting smallish again. If he has no clubs, he is folding

I wold take a long time, cut some chips, and pretend you are carefully pondering everything and check turn

I hate sets on monotone boards. Grrr.

I personally would check/fold. Our hand is pretty much only a bluff catcher at this point. If villain is 'tight/passive' I wouldn't expect him to bet without a Club. And, you have some showdown value, you have some outs to boat up, so I wouldn't risk getting raised off the hand. I check and pray like hell he checks it back with a weak club, try to see a river and boat up.

Well if you only beat 10% of V's range its an easy check fold. I don't think V is bluffing if checked to, given you would probably check Ac to him on the turn.

grunch

betting or check/raising would just be turning you hand into a bluff. Only hands that beat you are going to call or raise. Therefore, it comes down to b/f or b/c.

According to Owen Gaine's book "Poker Math that Matters", you need to make about 2.5x the amount of V's turn bet in order for the call to be profitable.

2.5x(bet we have to call)-money in pot

-If villain bets say $150, you would need V to call off $130 OTR if you make your hand. V will have $150 left
-If V bets $175, you would need V to call off $192. V will have only $125 left
-If he bets $200, you need $255. V will only have ~$100 left if he bets $200 so calling won't be profitable.

So we can call up to about $150 only if we think V will call it off on the river if we make our hand.

i would bet 90-120$ many times he has just a pair - and you dont give him the chance to bluff you off that hand. if he raises his hand is face up and you have an easy fold. if he calls you probably are beat now but you could still river a full.

sorry for all the errors. I didn't add V's bet to the pot

I ran in in a spreadsheet and it looks like it is a check/call up to ~$218. If he were to bet that amount, we would need to make $82 OTR if we make our hand. V would have $82 left after that bet.

b/f $125 or so. He's never going to turn his hand into a bluff in this spot. If he raises, easy fold. If you brick off the river it's an easy c/f.

check call to boat up

unless he shoves or pots it

FFS start by checking. Why the **** would we want to put more money into the pot as a dog? Betting is ******ed. Villain is passive, we don't need to crap our pants that he'll turn QT no club into a bluff.

Why are we betting?

To get value from non flush hands?

Do you really think that non flush hands will call?

Probably not... This is seeming more and more like a bad idea.

Not sure what's going on ITT until quesuerte's posts... trying to prevent him from bluffing us = "I don't want a tough decision so let me make a fundamental error". No value in folding out his bluffs, no value in betting for value on a 4 flush, we won't know where we're at, there's just no other play besides check and evaluate IMO. The only possible bet I could see myself making would be a small bet like $50 to see a cheap showdown/river and only ever get raised by A IMO.

Well, to be honest, I was a little stuck on this turn. Villain had a short enough stack to jam ($282 into $245 pot), in which case I can't call unless he's got air in his range.

So, I bet $85, but not for value. It was intended as a blocker, so I could see a river.
My thinking was that a tight-passive might just call with a weaker flush ...

Does my line make any sense?

Well, it's not terribad...but it's so transparent. You bet $70 into $100 on the flop, now you bet $85 into $250? You're pretty much screaming 'I don't have a club, please let me see the river 'cause I want to boat up'.

The problem is: if you make a bet that, if called, means you'll be scared that you're beat and you won't put any money in the pot....then you should't be making the bet in the first place. If a tight/passive isn't going to put money in the pot without at least a club, then you're just burning $85. Just check. If he has a weak club or doesn't have a club, he'll almost certainly check it back (tight/passives just aren't able to bluff a monotone board).

If he has a big club, he'll bomb away and you can safely fold - and you save $85.

I still think check/eval is the proper play here against a tight/passive.

Check. He will check back if you're ahead or if he has a non-nut flush and bet if he has the nutter butters. If he bets then only call if he makes the mistake of betting small. How large of a bet you call depends on how big of a bet he will call when the board pairs and you donk. Make sure you're getting better than 3.5:1 implied since you have 10 outs

Check/call a reasonably sized bet.