Quote:
Originally Posted by matzah_ball
My reasoning for c/r:
I figured I would get a lot of calls if I bet out, which would leave me in an ugly spot on a blank turn. I also didn't want to face a big raise. So I decided to check and evaluate.
After the fish bets out and the two competent players fold, I'm feeling better. He has a ton of stuff in his betting range, including random 7x and dominated draws. I figure a c/r can get folds from A8 type crap and can get value from draws I have crushed (K9, A9, Q9, FDs, 65, gutshots). Tx is almost certainly calling but I have good equity and can probably get him off it with a turn barrel.
I think it's a little ambitious to be hoping that he is betting 7x or 8x and is going to fold it. Yes, you get value from draws that you crush, but are you prepared to x/r flop and fire all 3 streets if you brick? This board is about as wet as it gets, and his range is extremely wide, is not skewed towards strong or weak, and we don't know what the bottom of his stack committal range is. I used to set up triple barrels for 100-200BB vs. fish with weak ranges at least once or twice a session. Now it's more like once every 2-3 sessions. They worked a majority of the time. But a triple is never a slam dunk play and I realized there are usually lines of equal value / less variance that you can take. If you get some time to crunch numbers, do the EV calcs of a triple barrel vs his pokerstoved range vs. the EV calcs of check calling and waiting to hit. It's a pain in the ass of a math problem to set up, but I don't think the numbers should be hugely different.
As played against described villain, i'd peel turn and donk ship if the club comes in. I'd be folding to most of his turn bets since he's probably going to rip it.
However, against described villain i'd prefer to x/c down to river and donk lead big into him if the flush comes in.
Last edited by SunChips; 12-23-2014 at 03:23 PM.